Which poll is right?

June 9, 2019

Or:

David Farrar says both can’t be right:

. . .You basically can’t reconcile these . One (or both) of them seem to be outside the 95% confidence interval, ie is the 1 in 20 “rogue” result.

The only other plausible explanation is that as the ONCB poll started a few days after NRR, Labour had a massive drop in support after those first few days. But the difference in dates is unlikely to explain the massive gap.

The polls ever show the direction of change differently. One has Labour down 6% and the other up 3.3%. National is up 4% in one and down 4% in another.

The NZ First result is also outside the margin of error. A 5% and a 2.8% result is outside the 95% confidence interval. . .

Both can’t be right, and just a few weeks ago all the pollsters were wrong about the Australian election.

 


Word of the day

June 9, 2019

Achene  – a small, dry one-seeded fruit that does not open to release the seed; a small dry indehiscent one-seeded fruit (as of a sunflower) developing from a simple ovary and usually having a thin pericarp attached to the seed at only one point.


Maya muses

June 9, 2019


Rural round-up

June 9, 2019

A recipe for disaster:

That old saying about not being able to see the wood for the trees could well describe the government’s infatuation with forestry at the expense of farming.

Objections are growing stronger in rural New Zealand to the impact the ‘one billion trees’ programme will have on the regions’ farming landscapes, infrastructure and communities. Concern is such that a new lobby group has formed, wanting to preserve the economy, health and welfare of the NZ provinces.

Named 50 Shades of Green, it aims to convince politicians and decisionmakers that the current push to plant a billion trees will destroy the provinces and ultimately may endanger the national economy. . . 

DIRA review nibbles at the status quo and avoids the big questions – Keith Woodford:

The current review of the Dairy Industry Restructuring Act (DIRA) does not address the big decisions that face the New Zealand dairy industry. That may well be a wise decision by Government.

Big decisions will indeed be necessary over the coming years. Clearly, they are difficult decisions. However, trying to make those decisions through the DIRA mechanism would be a brave decision and, in all likelihood, with unintended consequences. So, the Government has stepped back.

Instead, Government is using DIRA to nibble around the edges.  Whether those nibbles are the correct nibbles remains a moot point. . . 

Rural real estate feeling the pinch in South Canterbury – Samesh Mohanlall:

Parts of the rural real estate market are struggling in Canterbury and South Canterbury with key industry figures saying they are concerned about the effect of compliance regulations, anti-farming rhetoric and Environment Canterbury’s (ECan) climate emergency declaration.

South Canterbury’s Federated Farmers president Jason Grant and rural estate agents say much of the gloomy projection in the latest Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (Reinz) rural report stemmed from environmental constraints and negative sentiments “coming out around farming”.  . .

Carbon farms help soil, water – Annette Scott:

Carbon farming is about managing soil, vegetation, water and animals while turning opportunities on the farm into improved business performance and profitability.

All while ensuring long-term benefits to farm businesses, the local economy and the environment.

That was the buy-in for more than 60 farmers and industry stakeholders who attended a Canterbury Agribusiness carbon farming seminar.

Most attendees when asked why they attended said the same – to understand something that’s all a bit new and learn what opportunities are available to them. . . 

Nelson mums find solution for skin condition in the paddock – Anuja Nadkarni:

It all started with some flowers planted in a paddock.

Dot Kettle and her partner Georgia Richards traded in their fast-paced corporate lives in Wellington for a more relaxed life to raise their three boys in Dove Valley, 45 minutes from Nelson more than 10 years ago.

Kettle, a lawyer, and IT analyst Richards knew next to nothing about farming, but with 42 hectares of land, the couple decided to plant a field of peonies for export as they are the ideal blooms for Nelson’s climate. . . 

Dodgy fert size to get shake-up – Richard Rennie:

Lumpy, uneven and irregular fertiliser, long the bane of farmers and spreaders, will face tighter scrutiny once the Fertiliser Quality Council establishes standards for the product’s physical qualities.

While standards have been set for the mineral and nutrient content of fertiliser, council chairman Anders Crofoot admits it has taken longer than expected to set them for particle shape and size.

“Setting the chemical standard for fertilisers was fine and has worked well for a long time. . .

 


Sunday Soapbox

June 9, 2019

Sunday’s soapbox is yours to use as you will – within the bounds of decency and absence of defamation. You’re welcome to look back or forward, discuss issues of the moment, to pontificate, ponder or point us to something of interest, to educate, elucidate or entertain, amuse, bemuse or simply muse, but not abuse.

Image result for quotes hope

Hope deferred makes the heart sick, but a dream fulfilled is a tree of life. – Proverbs 13:12


June 9 in history

June 9, 2019

53  Roman Emperor Nero married Claudia Octavia.

62  Claudia Octavia was executed.

68  Roman Emperor Nero committed  suicide, after quoting Homer’s Iliad..

721  Odo of Aquitaine defeated the Moors in the Battle of Toulouse.

1310  Duccio‘s Maestà Altarpiece, a seminal artwork of the early Italian Renaissance, was unveiled and installed in the Siena Cathedral.

1534 Jacques Cartier was the first European to discover the Saint Lawrence River.

1595 King Wladislaus IV of Poland, was born (d. 1648).

1650  The Harvard Corporation, the more powerful of the two administrative boards of Harvard, was established,  the first legal corporation in the Americas.

1667 The Raid on the Medway by the Dutch fleet began.

1732  James Oglethorpe was granted a royal charter for the colony of Georgia.

1772  The British ship Gaspee was burned off the coast of Rhode Island.

1781 George Stephenson, English mechanical engineer, was born (d. 1848).

1798  Irish Rebellion of 1798: Battle of Arklow and Battle of Saintfield.

1815  End of the Congress of Vienna.

1836 – Elizabeth Garrett Anderson, English physician and politician, was born (d. 1917).

1843 – Bertha von Suttner, Austrian journalist and author, Nobel Prize laureate, was born (d. 1914).

1856 Five hundred Mormons left Iowa City and headed west for Salt Lake City carrying all their possessions in two-wheeled handcarts.

1863  American Civil War: the Battle of Brandy Station, Virginia.

1868 – Titokowaru’s war began with the killing of three settlers near Ketemarae, north of Hāwera, by Ngā Ruahine warriors acting on the orders of the spiritual leader Titokowaru.

1873  Alexandra Palace burned down after being open for only 16 days.

1885  A peace treaty was signed to end the Sino-French War.

1891 Cole Porter, American composer and lyricist, was born  (d. 1964).

1909 – Prime Minister Sir Joseph Ward opened the Public Trust Office Building in Lambton Quay, Wellington.

Public Trust Office building opens

1909  Alice Huyler Ramsey, a 22-year-old became the first woman to drive across the United States. With three female companions, none of whom could drive a car, in fifty-nine days she drove a Maxwell automobile the 3,800 miles from Manhattan to San Francisco.

1915  William Jennings Bryan resigned as Woodrow Wilson’s Secretary of State over a disagreement regarding the United States’ handling of the sinking of the RMS Lusitania.

1922  First ringing of the Harkness Memorial Chime at Yale University.

1923 Bulgaria‘s military took over the government in a coup.

1928  Charles Kingsford Smith completed the first trans-Pacific flight in a Fokker Trimotor monoplane, the Southern Cross.

1930  Chicago Tribune reporter Jake Lingle was killed during rush hour at the Illinois Central train station by the Leo Vincent Brothers, allegedly over a 100,000 USD gambling debt owed to Al Capone.

1934  Donald Duck made his debut in The Wise Little Hen.

1941 Jon Lord, English musician (Deep Purple), was born.

1944  World War II: 99 civilians were hung from lampposts and balconies by German troops in Tulle in reprisal for maquisards attacks.

1944  World War II: the Soviet Union invaded East Karelia and the previously Finnish part of Karelia, occupied by Finland since 1941.

1946 King Bhumibol Adulyadej ascended to the throne of Thailand. He is currently the world’s longest reigning monarch.

1953 Flint-Worcester tornado outbreak sequence: a tornado spawned from the same storm system as the Flint tornado hit in Worcester, Massachusetts killing 94.

1954 Joseph Welch, special counsel for the United States Army, lashed out at Senator Joseph McCarthy during hearings on whether Communism had infiltrated the Army – giving McCarthy the famous rebuke, “You’ve done enough. Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? Have you left no sense of decency?”

1956 Patricia Cornwell, American author, was born.

1957  First ascent of Broad Peak (the world’s 12th highest mountain).

1958 Queen Elizabeth II officially opened London Gatwick Airport.

1959  The USS George Washington was launched, the first submarine to carry ballistic missiles.

1961  Michael J. Fox, Canadian-born actor, was born.

1967  Six-Day War: Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria

1968 U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson declared a national day of mourning following the assassination of Senator Robert F. Kennedy.

1973  Secretariat won the Triple Crown.

1978  The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints opened its priesthood to “all worthy men”, ending a 148-year-old policy excluding black men.

1979 The Ghost Train Fire at Luna Park, North Sydney, killed seven.

1985  Thomas Sutherland was kidnapped in Lebanon.

1986  The Rogers Commission released its report on the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster.

1999  Kosovo War: the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and North Atlantic Treaty Organization sign a peace treaty.

2008 – Two bombs exploded at a train station near Algiers, Algeria, killing at least 13 people.

2008  Lake Delton drained as a result of heavy flooding breaking the dam holding the lake back.

2009 – An explosion killed 17 people and injures at least 46 at a hotel in PeshawarPakistan.

2010 – At least 40 people were killed and more than 70 others wounded by an explosion  at an evening wedding party in Arghandab, Kandahar.

2015 – The Southern Front of the Free Syrian Army claimed to have captured a major Syrian Army base known as Brigade 52 in Daraa Governorate.

Sourced from NZ History Online & Wikipedia


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