Which poll is right?

June 9, 2019

Or:

David Farrar says both can’t be right:

. . .You basically can’t reconcile these . One (or both) of them seem to be outside the 95% confidence interval, ie is the 1 in 20 “rogue” result.

The only other plausible explanation is that as the ONCB poll started a few days after NRR, Labour had a massive drop in support after those first few days. But the difference in dates is unlikely to explain the massive gap.

The polls ever show the direction of change differently. One has Labour down 6% and the other up 3.3%. National is up 4% in one and down 4% in another.

The NZ First result is also outside the margin of error. A 5% and a 2.8% result is outside the 95% confidence interval. . .

Both can’t be right, and just a few weeks ago all the pollsters were wrong about the Australian election.

 


Only one poll

December 2, 2018

It’s only one poll, but the latest one from One News Colmar Brunton is a very good one for National as the political year draws to a close:

National up 3% to 46% support, Labour down 3 to 43%, Green Party down 2 to 5%, NZ First dropping 1 to 4%, the Maori Party on 1% and Act on 1%.

It’s the party vote that counts and this result matters more – at least so far as one poll matters at all – than the preferred PM poll in which National’s leader Simon Bridges is still in single figures.

The changes are in margin of error territory but the trend still has National ahead of Labour.

That isn’t enough to govern under MMP, but it shows National support is solid and that the leader’s stardust isn’t enough to make Labour sparkle too.

Under MMP it’s not enough to have the most support, a party has to get to 61 seats by itself or with at least one support partner.

But at this stage of the political cycle, and given, the rough waters National has had to negotiate in recent months that’s a lesser concern than voter support which is still very strong.


It’s only another poll

September 20, 2017

This is a good boost for Prime Minister Bill English as he heads into the final leaders’ debate:


Could be a silly precedent

September 13, 2016

Labour is clearly rattled by the latest One News Colmar Brunton political poll which put the party down three to 26% since June.

Leader Andrew Little called it a bogus poll and now the party has released its internal poll results.

 

The Roy Morgan poll a couple of months ago which showed National on 53% was off-trend but the latest One News poll is far closer to others than Labour’s.

Kiwiblog has the four most recent poll results for National and Labour:

Individual polls are probably only of interest to political tragics but others might take more interest in the trends which have National in the mid 40s and suggest the UMR poll is an outlier.

Labour could have set a silly precedent and dug a hole for itself by releasing its own poll.

The media will want to know what the party’s internal polling shows next time one of the public ones doesn’t fit the party’s narrative.

If Labour doesn’t release it the obvious conclusion will be that it isn’t favourable either.

Had it not lost its spin doctors, one of them might have warned the party of that.


Basics beat side shows

April 11, 2016

National’s three-point rise to 50% in the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll has come as a surprise to some commentators.

Labour’s four-point fall to 28% was probably not.

It is only one poll and anything could happen between now and the election but Kiwiblog shows where the two parties were at the same time in the last election cycle:

In April 2013 National was at 43% and Labour 36% – a 7% gap.

In April 2016 National is at 50% and Labour 28% – a 22% gap.

He points out that Labour leader Andrew Little is on only 7%, three points behind Winston Peters.

This isn’t a strong position from which to launch a winning election campaign.

In another post, Kiwiblog looks at party favourability:

. . . National is viewed favourably by 58% of NZers. That helps explain why 47% voted for them.

Labour is viewed favourably by just 35% of NZers. . . 

National has the least unfavourable – only 28% of NZers dislike National. This will come as a surprise to hard left activists who live in a bubble where 100% of their friends dislike National. . . 

Labour is on 41% for unfavourability.

National at +30% is the only party to have net favourability:

PartyNetFav

National’s continual popularity confounds its critics and many commentators.

There are several reasons for it and one of the biggest is that the government focuses on the basics while Labour gets distracted by sideshows.

That doesn’t mean everything the government does works well. I am tribal National and there are some things the government does I don’t like and some it doesn’t do I’d like it to, but those things don’t matter as much as the basics – the economy, education, health, welfare, and security.

And of course, one big reason National is doing so well is that Labour isn’t.

National can’t rely on that if it wants to win a fourth term, a viable government needs to be there for better reasons than a hopeless opponent but Labour’s continuing focus on side-shows and showing its incompetence in opposition keeps demonstrating it is not a viable government-in-waiting.

 

 

 

 


Blue up green down

February 24, 2014

Last night’s One News Colmar Brunton Poll appeared to show National gaining at the Green Party’s expense.

The blue vote went up 6 points and the Green one fell 5 while Labour stayed the same.

But rather than swapping from green to blue it’s more likely that green went red and pink went blue.

Green voters liked Labour’s lurch to the left so moved to the red party but a similar number of voters towards the centre didn’t like the lurch left and moved centre right over to National.

That is the conundrum Labour faces – policies which bolster its support from the left lose it support from the centre.

The poll follows the trend showing steady support for National and little or no progress for the left. The PM is still popular and Labour leader David Cunliffe is not.

There is however, no room for complacency:

Meanwhile National’s election year pitch of boosting teacher performance is proving popular.

But the Prime Minister says his party won’t rest on its laurels, or on the tailwind of a booming economy.

“It’s a good poll but we need to be cautious,” John Key says. “There will be a lot of polls before the election they will bounce around a lot.” . .

 Corin Dann says it’s a wake up call for the left:

The six-point surge in the ONE News Colmar Brunton poll to 51% may well reflect a strong economy and the feel good factor of summer.

However, it also must be acknowledged that Prime Minister John Key has made a strong start to the year.

His popular education policy sending a clear signal to voters that National is capable of fresh ideas and is not a tired government.

Labour leader David Cunliffe meanwhile had his policy launch of a baby bonus derailed by a gaffe and has seemed to struggle for confidence and exposure since. . .

As for the Greens’ big fall in the poll, that is harder to explain. It may be that Russel Norman’s liaisons with Kim Dot Com have hurt the party, or it could also be a reflection of National’s efforts to discredit the party as extremist.

It could also be that more exposure for the Greens is showing up flaws in its policies and that its supporters don’t accept the compromises that would be necessary if it was in government.

poll


Answer depends on question

April 3, 2012

The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll shows a drop in the number of people opposed to the partial sale of state assets although the majority still oppose the idea:

The latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll shows the policy continues to fly in the face of public opinion, with only 30% of people saying they support the mixed-ownership model.

Double that number say they do not support it (61%), and the rest (9%) do not know.

But it appears voter support for asset sales has picked up slightly since ONE News last asked the question in a November poll.

Back then, just 26% of people supported the plan, while almost 70% opposed it.

What answer is given depends on the question asked.

If, for example people, were asked: do you want the government to borrow more from foreigners? or do you want the government to stop investing in new infrastructure? or would Air New Zealand be better if it was wholly owned by the government? it’s likely that many of those who think they’re opposed to partial sales might answer no to all those questions.


An accident?

November 17, 2011

Quote of the day:

Anyone gullible enough to swallow the story the taping of the Key-Banks tea party last week was inadvertent, as the Herald on Sunday claimed? The reality is Sunday tabloids don’t cover events other media attend during the week, unless they can get an exclusive. And the only way to get an exclusive of the tea party was by way of subterfuge. But you have to admire the HoS brazen effrontery in claiming it had acted ethically. And how about those politicians who in one breath said it would be illegal to tape a private conversation, and, in the next, said John Key was panicking in filing a complaint with the police? Trans Tasman

Whether or not people are swallowing the story, the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll shows the issue hasn’t done much damage to National  and has done nothing to help Labour.

It also shows that the vandalism of National’s signs by a now-former member of the Green Party hasn’t cost it any support.

The poll had National dropping a point to 53%, Labour down to a 10-year low of 26%, the Green Party up to 13% and, thankfully, New Zealand First on only 2.2%.


Only one poll counts

October 3, 2011

It’s a political truism that only one poll counts.

It’s another that the trend is a friend.

That last point might be true for National but it’s definitely not for Labour as the gap between the two parties continues to widen.

Last night’s ONE News Colmar Brunton poll has more poll woe for Labour and Goff:

National 56% steady; Labour 29% down 1%; Green Party 9% up 3%; NZ First 2% steady;  Act 1% down 1% ; Maori Party 1% steady; Mana Party 1% steady.

Assuming Act, Maori Party and United Future held electorate seats the make up of parliament would be: National 69; Labour 36; Green Party 11; Maori Party 4; Act 2; United Future NZ 1; Mana Party 1.

John Key has gone up 6 to 59% as preferred Prime Minister; Phil Goff is steady on 8%.

The 3 News Reid Research political poll has National with more than twice the support than Labour is attracting:

National up 3.5 to 57.4%; Labour down 2.2 to 26.6%; Green party up .5 to 9.8%; NZ First down .3 to 1.9%; Act down .6% to 1.6%, Maori Party down .7 to .8%; Mana steady on .7% and United Future steady on nothing.

Key attracts 54.5% support as preferred Prime Minister in contrast to just 6.2% support for Goff.

Polling was done before the news of ratings downgrades broke.


The only way is . . . ?

April 18, 2011

Any hopes Labour might have taken from last week’s One News Colmar Brunton poll which showed a slight increase in support will have been dashed by last night’s 3 News Reid poll which shows they’ve dropped 3.8 to just 27.1%.

That would mean they’d get just 34 seats. Several sitting MPs would lose their jobs and only one new MP would come in on the list – former party president Andrew Little.

If, as often happens, loss of party support leads to fewer votes for individual MPs the party could also lose some electorate seats. That wouldn’t affect the overall number of MPs they get but it would further weaken the party.

The only way to go from 27% ought to be up  which is what happened last time Labour was there and it could happen again. But this poll shows not just Labour but left as a whole is less popular.

The two coalition supporters Labour could rely on also lost support. The Green Party dropped .5 to 7.7%. New Zealand First had a similar drop to 2.8% which is only just over half way to the 5% threshold needed to get into parliament without winning an electorate.

The Maori Party which could choose to go with Labour or National, or stay out of government had a slight increase in support – up .2% to 2.5% and Act which would go with National or stay on the cross benches was up 1.1 t0 1.7%.

National went up 2.9 to 57.5% and dearly as I would like that sort of result on election night it would be virtually impossible to translate that level of support into votes.

Although Kiwiblog says the TV3 poll was the most accurate one in the last two elections it’s still seven and a bit months until election day and anything could happen before then.

Labour might be in despair about their lack of traction but National can’t afford to be complacent when the only likely way to go from these poll heights is down.

However, those of us on the centre right can take heart that the public does appear to realise that borrow and spend policies won’t help and policies which lead to more savings, investment and export growth is what we need.


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