Let’s get back on-message

March 31, 2015

One of the big disappointments of the Northland by-election was that National went off-message.

Until then the message was clear and consistent – a growing economy is the means for improved services and infrastructure, without compromising the environment, and National’s recipe for that is working.

We’ve had sustained growth, without inflationary pressure, in spite of the financial and natural crisis the government has faced.

That has been achieved by careful management of public finances while looking after the most vulnerable.

A big part of the plan, and its success, is addressing the causes of long-term problems and thereby reducing the costs which go with them.

This is why National has increased money for education and put more in to helping those most at risk from long term welfare dependence.

It is why it has made delivering Better Public Services one of its priorities.

To do this, we set 10 specific measurable targets in 2012 that we expected the public service to achieve over four to five years to improve the lives of New Zealanders, particularly the most vulnerable.

These 10 targets are in areas that have been challenging to governments, not just in New Zealand but all around the world – such as welfare dependency, crime, child abuse, and educational achievement.

This focus on results, and being accountable for achieving them, is changing the way the public service is thinking and operating.

Three years on, we are making progress on all 10 targets and it’s now starting to make a difference that improves the lives of New Zealanders.

In February 2015, we released our twice yearly update on the Better Public Service programme.

Key highlights of the latest update include:

  • Immunisation rates of young babies have reached an all-time high.
  • Rheumatic fever rates have dropped considerably.
  • Crime numbers continue to fall – the crime rate is now at a 35-year low.
  • Last year nearly 5,000 people came off long-term JobSeeker Support benefits and into work.
  • More 18-year olds are achieving NCEA Level 2.
  • More young people are achieving higher qualifications.
  • And the number of children who experienced substantiated physical abuse has decreased by almost 200, or 5.6 per cent, over the past year.

There’s still a lot of work to do and we will continue to focus on making strides on the things that matter to New Zealanders and their families.

These matter everywhere in New Zealand, including the provinces.

But there is no doubt Northland had an itch to which Winston Peters applied his usual prescription of charm without substance.

It is possible that no matter how good a campaign National ran it wouldn’t have been able to counter Peters’ persuasion.

But there would have been a better chance of success had it stuck to its message and it must get back on to it.

It has the right prescription and it must keep applying it everywhere including those parts of the country which, fairly or not, feel it isn’t yet addressing their ills.

 

 


One against too many

March 29, 2015

The Northland by-election delivered a 4,000 vote majority for Winston Peters which is being described as a hiding for National.

But how could our candidate, Mark Osborne, counter all of the left plus some of the centre and centre right who might, or might not, not have understood the consequences of their voting?

One against too many others united in opposition to him was too much.

Given what he was up against and how little time he had, he did well, but sadly not well enough.

I’m not pretending this is anything but bad for National. The party will be doing serious soul-searching and must learn from this.

But National isn’t the only loser.

After the knee-capping by Labour leader Andrew Little, that party’s candidate wasn’t expected to do well but just 1,315 votes must be galling for Willow-Jean Prime.

What does the result say for the left as a whole? The Green party didn’t stand and Mana scraped up only 55 votes.

This wasn’t a win for the left who have lost any moral high ground they might have had from which to criticise National for not campaigning to win electorates.

Previous Labour leaders struggled against Russel Norman who did a better job in Opposition and now Little will have to counter a stronger Peters.

What does this result do for Northlanders? They’ve now got an MP who doesn’t live in the electorate and who will be distracted by his party-leadership responsibilities.

They’ve got two and a half years to work out whether that’s what they need.

And New Zealand, after nearly getting a majority government on election night is back to where it was in the last term with National dependent on Act and the votes of at least one other party to pass legislation.

Ah well, that’s politics and today we’ve got sport to enjoy – Go the Black Caps.

 


Northland by-election

March 28, 2015

By-election  results are being posted at elections.govt.nz.

Update:

With all booths counted Peters has a majority of 4012:

BONNER, Adrian Paul IND 17
CARR, Joe FNZ 107
GRIEVE, Robin ACT 66
HERBERT, Maki ALCP 85
HOLLAND, Adam IND 14
OSBORNE, Mark NAT 11,347
PAINTING, Rob CLI 38
PETERS, Winston NZF 15,359
PORTER, Rueben Taipari MANA 55
PRIME, Willow-Jean LAB 1,315
ROGAN, Bruce IND 22

With 99% counted Peters has a majority of 3995:

BONNER, Adrian Paul IND 17
CARR, Joe FNZ 107
GRIEVE, Robin ACT 66
HERBERT, Maki ALCP 84
HOLLAND, Adam IND 14
OSBORNE, Mark NAT 11,331
PAINTING, Rob CLI 38
PETERS, Winston NZF 15,326
PORTER, Rueben Taipari MANA 55
PRIME, Willow-Jean LAB 1,313
ROGAN, Bruce IND 22
Candidate Informals 43
TOTAL 28,416

UPDATE:

At 96% counted:

BONNER, Adrian Paul IND 17
CARR, Joe FNZ 107
GRIEVE, Robin ACT 66
HERBERT, Maki ALCP 84
HOLLAND, Adam IND 13
OSBORNE, Mark NAT 11,263
PAINTING, Rob CLI 38
PETERS, Winston NZF 15,149
PORTER, Rueben Taipari MANA 52
PRIME, Willow-Jean LAB 1,304
ROGAN, Bruce IND 22

UPDATE:

At 89.9% counted:

BONNER, Adrian Paul IND 15
CARR, Joe FNZ 96
GRIEVE, Robin ACT 62
HERBERT, Maki ALCP 74
HOLLAND, Adam IND 11
OSBORNE, Mark NAT 10,131
PAINTING, Rob CLI 33
PETERS, Winston NZF 13,760
PORTER, Rueben Taipari MANA 52
PRIME, Willow-Jean LAB 1,183
ROGAN, Bruce IND 22

UPDATE:

With 82% counted

BONNER, Adrian Paul IND 12
CARR, Joe FNZ 84
GRIEVE, Robin ACT 57
HERBERT, Maki ALCP 65
HOLLAND, Adam IND 11
OSBORNE, Mark NAT 9,347
PAINTING, Rob CLI 28
PETERS, Winston NZF 12,475
PORTER, Rueben Taipari MANA 49
PRIME, Willow-Jean LAB 1,040
ROGAN, Bruce IND 22

UPDATE:

At 70.4% counted:

BONNER, Adrian Paul IND 11
CARR, Joe FNZ 81
GRIEVE, Robin ACT 43
HERBERT, Maki ALCP 52
HOLLAND, Adam IND 9
OSBORNE, Mark NAT 8,416
PAINTING, Rob CLI 26
PETERS, Winston NZF 11,139
PORTER, Rueben Taipari MANA 44
PRIME, Willow-Jean LAB 975
ROGAN, Bruce IND 17

UPDATE:

With 56% counted:

BONNER, Adrian Paul IND 10
CARR, Joe FNZ 65
GRIEVE, Robin ACT 42
HERBERT, Maki ALCP 40
HOLLAND, Adam IND 9
OSBORNE, Mark NAT 7,464
PAINTING, Rob CLI 23
PETERS, Winston NZF 9,696
PORTER, Rueben Taipari MANA 38
PRIME, Willow-Jean LAB 849
ROGAN, Bruce IND 17

A little more than 15% of the vote has been counted and it’s very much a two-horse race:

 

BONNER, Adrian Paul IND 8
CARR, Joe FNZ 39
GRIEVE, Robin ACT 25
HERBERT, Maki ALCP 26
HOLLAND, Adam IND 7
OSBORNE, Mark NAT 5,394
PAINTING, Rob CLI 16
PETERS, Winston NZF 6,875
PORTER, Rueben Taipari MANA 32
PRIME, Willow-Jean LAB 634
ROGAN, Bruce IND 12
Candidate Informals 18
TOTAL 13,086

 

With a little more than 40% of the vote counted:

BONNER, Adrian Paul IND 9
CARR, Joe FNZ 60
GRIEVE, Robin ACT 36
HERBERT, Maki ALCP 31
HOLLAND, Adam IND 8
OSBORNE, Mark NAT 6,394
PAINTING, Rob CLI 18
PETERS, Winston NZF 8,283
PORTER, Rueben Taipari MANA 35
PRIME, Willow-Jean LAB 715
ROGAN, Bruce IND 16

What makes a good local MP?

March 27, 2015

Trusty, loyal, helpful, friendly, courteous, kind . . .

These are the character traits a Scout or Guide is supposed to demonstrate. They are also essential character traits for a good MP.

Local MPs haven’t been so local anymore since that MMP has decreased the number of electorates and thereby increased their size but that makes availability and commitment to the electorate and its people even more important.

All of this makes me wonder what the people of Northland are thinking if the TV3 poll is right and 54% of them want Winston Peters as their MP when 48% don’t trust him and 9% don’t know if they trust him.

Why would people vote for someone they don’t trust, who doesn’t live in the electorate,  who will be at least as interested in courting the rest of New Zealand as party leader as he is in the people of Northland and who is coming to the end of a political career distinguished at least as much by controversy as accomplishment?

Contrast that with National’s candidate Mark Osborne who lives in the electorate, is in partnership with his wife in a business in the electorate, has children at school in the electorate and as a backbench MP at the start of a political career would have the time and commitment to serve the people of the electorate.

It is even more puzzling when getting Peters as a part-time electorate MP would give more power to both Peter Dunne and the Maori Party.

. . .Those who vote in Northland tomorrow will not remove National from power whatever happens, but they could shift the balance of power in Parliament from Epsom’s David Seymour, who is safely in National’s pocket, to Peter Dunne and the Maori Party. They will be the real winners if Northland elects Winston Peters. . .

And the losers will be all of New Zealand which needs a strong, stable government and the people of Northland who need a good local MP.


What did Hunua & Tauranga learn that Northland should know?

March 21, 2015

Winston Peters won the seat of Hunua in 1978 but lost it again in 1981.

He won Tauranga in 1984 and lost it again in 2008.

What did the people of Hunua and Tauranga learn that voters in Northland should know?
"Send him a message."


Quote of the day

March 16, 2015

“The nature of by-elections is it’s a very short period of time. We devoted a couple or three weeks, as the party does, to select the candidate Bit simpler for Winston; he just looks in the nearest mirror and selects himself.” Steven Joyce.

 


Little hints

March 9, 2015

Labour leader Andrew leader can’t quite bring himself to tell Northland voters not to vote for his party’s candidate Willow-Jean Prime but he’s dropping little – or should that be Little? – hints:

Mr Little told TVNZ One’s Q+A programme that Labour will not pull its candidate Willow-Jean Prime from the by-election contest, despite a Q+A Colmar Brunton poll showing Mr Peters would win if she was not in the running.

However, he called for left voters to be “realistic” with their candidate choice.

“They’ve got a vote they should use it. If they want to vote to send a message to the Government …

“They are intelligent enough to see how they can do that.” . .

Every election Labour has criticised National for electoral accommodations in Epsom and Ohariu but now he thinks it would be too his advantage, Little is indicating he’s willing to do just that.

He’s throwing his candidate under the wheels of Peters’ bus, not to help Labour or Northland but, as Rodney Hide points out, to get a New Zealand First list MP in Invercargill and give more power to Peter Dunne:

. . . A Peters win would destabilise the Government and power up a Wellington electorate MP. Ohariu would benefit – not Northland. On winning Northland, Peters would resign as a list MP to clear the way for the next candidate on New Zealand First’s list. That candidate is Ria Bond … from Invercargill.

That’s right. In choosing Peters, Northland voters would be electing an MP from Invercargill.

Those in the Far North would elect a candidate from the deep south.

But it gets better.

Peters lives in Auckland. Parliament is in Wellington. That’s how he divides his time. Kerikeri is 250km north of Auckland. So Peters is asking the people of Northland to vote for an Aucklander to elect an MP from Invercargill and empower an MP from Wellington. . .

This would not bring down the government but it would make it more difficult for it to pass legislation and give Dunne and the two other government partners – Act and the Maori Party – a lot more bargaining power.

That won’t help Labour this term, nor will it make it any easier for it and its potential coalition partners to gain enough seats to govern next term.

In fact it might make it more difficult because the Little hints make him look downright shifty.

When National campaigns in Epsom and Ohariu it is open about campaigning only for the party vote and it ensures its candidates are high enough on its list to get into parliament.

Little isn’t being open, he’s trying to have a bob each way. He hasn’t clearly said voters should ditch Prime for Peters but nor has he said they shouldn’t. Yet he’s prevaricating enough to handicap his candidate and there’s no list seats up for grabs in a by-election to compensate her for her wasted efforts.

And what’s in this political playing for the people of Northland?

. . . Peters is 70 this year. It’s a long way from Auckland to Northland. It’s even further across the electorate. Peters will be bogged down and busy doing the bare minimum needed to be local MP. I doubt the region will be much troubled by him.

And he would lose in 2017. Northland will return a National candidate in a General Election.

It has been 40 years since Peters stood for Northern Maori. He’s late in rediscovering the north but his campaign is exciting.

I believe he prefers a close second. Winning would be altogether too much work.

Little is willing to sabotage his candidate to help Peters who will have neither the will nor the energy to service the large Northland electorate and its many communities while also attending to the demands of party leadership.

We can but hope the people of Northland will have learned from Tauranga voters who saw through him and send both him and Labour a message: they need an MP who lives in the electorate who will be in government and who will represent them well and work hard for them.

There’s only one of those standing – National’s Mark Osborne.

 

 


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