Word of the day

Verschlimmbessern – to make something worse while trying to make it better or in an honest but failed attempt to improve it.

Sowell says

The stark contrast between the slave and the free which made slavery a moral issue in the Western world in modern times was simply not there for most societies and for most of history in most of the world.

— Thomas Sowell Wisdom (@TheThomasSowell) March 7, 2023

Rural round-up

Farmers need backing like All Blacks: Luxon– Sally Rae:

Every man and his dog attended the Wānaka A&P Show.

Organisers estimated at least 44,000 people attended the two-day event and thousands crowded around the main ring on Saturday for the ever-popular and ever-chaotic terrier race.

After a false start -one little dog broke early -mounted police officer Ashleigh Smail, of Invercargill, and Bentley dragged the bait around the arena and the usual mayhem ensued.

Constable Smail described it as an “amazing” experience. Admitting to being a little nervous prior to the race, she had her horse since he was young and he was very experienced, so she thought he was “going to be a good boy”. . . 

Energy colonialism will worsen rural-urban divide – Joel Kotkin:

In his drive to conquer China, Mao Zedong and his most famous general, Lin Biao, stoked “a peasant revolution” that eventually overwhelmed the cities. In those days, most Chinese toiled on the land, a vast manpower reservoir for the Communist insurgency. Today, in a world where a majority lives in urban settlements, such a strategy would be doomed to failure.

The small percentage of rural and small-town residents in most advanced countries — generally under 20 percent — lack the numbers to overwhelm the rest of society. Political and economic elites feel free to ignore the countryside, but they may find they do so at their peril. Although now a mere slice of the population, rural areas remain critical suppliers of food, fiber (like cotton), and energy to the rest of the economy.

Residents in agricultural areas have good reason to feel put upon. Their industries are often targeted by regulators and disdained by the metropolitan cognoscenti. They may not be hiding in the caves of Yan’an, but farming communities from the Netherlands to North America are rebelling against extreme government regulations, such as banning or restricting critical fertilizers or the enforced culling of herds. Meat and dairy producers are assaulted in a hysterical article in the New York Times that predicts imminent “mass extinction” caused by humans and suggests that to keep the planet from “frying” we will need to reduce meat and dairy consumption in short order. . . 

New Zealand pip fruit harvest re-estimated after Cyclone Gabrielle :

The New Zealand pipfruit crop has been re-estimated after Cyclone Gabrielle affected parts of the East Coast of the North Island.

While Tairāwhiti Gisborne crop re-estimates are yet to be completed, at this stage, the overall New Zealand crop is estimated to be down 21% on the original January crop estimate, resulting in a volume of 16.1 million TCEs (tray carton equivalent).

Central Otago and Nelson/Tasman continue to experience good growing and harvest conditions, and are on track to meet forecast crop expectations.

On the East Coast, there is a clear distinction between blocks that have been significantly and severely affected by the storm, and blocks that are untouched. For unaffected blocks, the remaining crop harvest is well underway, and conditions for the remaining harvest period look good. . . 

We plant some trees in beautiful places but this spot on Kawhia Harbour takes some beating. Awesome land owners wanting to protect their slice of paradise by planting erosion prone slopes in native trees. pic.twitter.com/9jDBlAbcBS

— Adam Thompson (@ktuluadam) March 7, 2023

Waikato Dairy Award winner passionate about all farming opportunities :

The major winner in the 2023 Waikato Dairy Industry Awards has a genuine passion for all things farming and believes there are many opportunities within the dairy industry for those who are willing to work hard and push themselves.

For the first time, a sole female farmer has won the Waikato Share Farmer category.

Aleisha Broomfield was announced winner of the region’s Share Farmer of the Year category at the Waikato Dairy Industry Awards annual awards dinner held at Claudelands Event Centre on Wednesday evening. The other big winners were Sam Dodd, who became the 2023 Waikato Dairy Manager of the Year, and Natasha Price, the 2023 Waikato Dairy Trainee of the Year.

Aleisha is a 50/50 herd-owning share milker on the Dibble Family’s Tauhei Farms Ltd 86ha Te Aroha farm, milking 245 cows. She won $15,828 in prizes and four merit awards. . . 

Southland Otago Dairy Industry Award winners environment focussed :

The winners of the 2023 Southland/Otago Dairy Industry Awards Share Farmer of the Year category say they love to see people thrive and progress through the industry and believe there are still many opportunities in the dairy industry.

Michael and Shahn Smith were announced winners of the region’s Share Farmer of the Year category, announced at a dinner at Bill Richardson’s Transport World in Invercargill on Tuesday night. The other big winners were Nicole Barber who was named the 2023 Southland/Otago Dairy Manager of the Year, and Ann-Kristin Loferski, the 2023 Southland/Otago Dairy Trainee of the Year.

The Smiths saw the Awards process as an opportunity to reflect on their business. “We wanted to push ourselves with goal-setting and have conversations with like-minded people regarding the future of farming and the legacy we can leave the future generations.”

Prior to entering the dairy industry, Michael worked as a Land Management Officer (Riparian) for the Taranaki Regional Council. “My education is environmental-based, and I’m passionate about leaving the land better than we found it.” . . 

A biggie over Darwin last night, this taken at Acacia Hills just south of the city… #storm #wetseason pic.twitter.com/9ENBQx637X

— RFTTE (@rftte) March 14, 2023

Countdown commits to growing back better with over $750,000 of support for its growers impacted by Cyclone Gabrielle :

Countdown has today announced a range of targeted support to help growers who have been impacted the most severely by Cyclone Gabrielle to get back on their feet.

The package of support includes $700,000 ring-fenced for cash grants, a $50,000 donation to Rural Support Trust, and other in-kind targeted support as well as commitments around future growing agreements.

Countdown’s Commercial Director for Fresh, Pieter de Wet, says that as growers continue to assess their needs three weeks on from the devastating cyclone, the retailer is committed to helping their partners in a practical and meaningful way.

“The weather events over the past few weeks have caused immense destruction that will have a long-lasting impact on many communities and their livelihoods. That includes our growers who play a vital role in ensuring Kiwi have access to healthy fresh fruit and veg” says de Wet. . . 

 

Quotes of the day

On crime and the news that retail crime is now so bad we experience almost 300 incidents a day.

Quite rightly when we talk about crime, our focus should be on the victims mainly.

But spare a thought for the police as well, because they are clearly so frustrated by what’s happening. – Heather du Plessis-Allan

Every police officer I’ve spoken to will tell you you’re seeing more crime because they aren’t allowed to chase criminals and because the courts aren’t punishing them hard enough.

So unfortunately, we probably have to get used to those crime numbers. Because unless Coster and the courts harden up, this is life in NZ. – Heather du Plessis-Allan

Last week, documents came to light under the Official Information Act, showing that the Ministry of Education has been putting pressure on the New Zealand Qualifications Authority (NZQA) to make new literacy and numeracy requirements for NCEA easier to attain.

It’s not hard to see why ministry officials are worried. In trials last year, just a third of candidates demonstrated a basic standard of adult proficiency in writing. Two thirds met the reading standard, and just over half, the numeracy standard.

These are appalling results.

As of 2024, students will have to meet these requirements to achieve any level of NCEA. If this policy is implemented as scheduled, achievements rates for qualifications will plummet. – Dr Michael Johnston

The ministry wants NZQA to reduce the sophistication of vocabulary required in the literacy tests. Still others amount to reducing their reliability. The ministry wants to reduce the number of questions students have to answer.

NZQA, to its credit, has pushed back. It has defended its processes for setting the assessments and disagreed that they’re too difficult.

In another recent Newsroom column, Professor Gavin Brown of Auckland University pointed out other data indicating that the poor results in the trials probably shouldn’t have come as a surprise.

The fact is, the ministry itself has known for years that we have a real problem with literacy and numeracy. – Dr Michael Johnston

The ministry, it seems, would rather prop up the data by making these assessments easier than take the action required to fix the underlying problem. That would mean abandoning the misguided teaching ideology that has underpinned two decades of falling literacy and numeracy attainment. It would mean overhauling the way teachers are trained to teach these key skills. But the ministry seems to prefer dumbing down the tests to taking the action required to improve learning.

This scandal is just the latest in a litany of incidents in which the ministry has been exposed. Mismanagement, ideological thinking and downright incompetence seem to be the hallmarks of its stewardship of our schooling system. – Dr Michael Johnston

The ministry should be solving the problems afflicting our education system rather than contributing to them. In addition to our very poor literacy and numeracy attainment, those problems include shocking truancy rates, low teacher morale and a threadbare curriculum.

The malaise in the Ministry of Education is just one instance of wider problems in our public service. – Dr Michael Johnston

The Ministry of Education will not improve its stewardship of schooling until that reform takes place. Meanwhile, every year, about 65,000 young New Zealanders leave school, many of them having been woefully under-served.

Schools and their teachers, by-and-large, do the very best they can for their students with the knowledge and resources at their disposal. But few teachers have been equipped with the best methods of teaching literacy. And schools are massively under-resourced to support students with learning disabilities such as dyslexia.

We cannot wait for the ministry to help. We need to find ways around it.

Communities must take more responsibility for supporting the work of their schools. – Dr Michael Johnston

There are many pressing issues for voters, including the cost of living, rising crime rates and a crisis in healthcare. It’s easy for slower-burning issues such as education to take a back seat to these more immediate concerns. But we can’t afford to keep going the way we are. This year, education must be front-and-centre in election debates.

The ministry isn’t going to help. It’s time for all New Zealanders to step up and take responsibility for saving our schools. – Dr Michael Johnston

Early childcare education (ECE) and aged residential care providers both rely on government subsidies to operate; businesses in both sectors say they are struggling to keep up with rising wage costs, given the funding they receive – and that’s impacting both quality of care and commercial viability. – Andrew Bevin

Since his elevation to the role of Prime Minister, Chris Hipkins’s spin doctors and the compliant MSM are energetically pushing the “Chippy” narrative. Portraying him as a regular down to earth, focusing on the “bread & butter” issues, Cossie Club, Joe Average New Zealander.

But we must not be fooled by the Joe Average persona nor by the choir boy looks. 

You don’t have to scratch the surface too deeply to unearth the same range of political ideologies that seek to achieve a skewed ethnic equality, the same “we know best” dogma and exactly the same innate ability to obfuscate and to equivocate as his predecessor. – John Porter

Further emulating his predecessor, Hipkins also has some serious failure marks on his report card.

His ineffectiveness and incompetence were there for all to see in his previous ministerial role.

We must not forget Hipkins, as Minister of Education from 2017 until he became Prime Minister in January, had oversight on the Ministry of Education.

This is the ministry, which on Hipkins’ watch, and ostensibly with his endorsement, has given the nation’s schoolchildren a radical, “decolonised” history curriculum.

New Zealand’s education system is already in a parlous state but we are busy installing the vision of a minority into the centre of our education system.

All conducted under Hipkins’s watch and all without formal approval from the public.

This can only be acknowledged as a radical and serious step with far-reaching and extreme long-term consequences.

A step too far in an effort to correct some perceived ethnic disadvantage or simply a minister not assuming responsibility? – John Porter

If you want to influence and change thoughts or actions, where do you start? Education and in particular, the most impressionable, the younger generation.

This curriculum refresh makes it clear that local iwi will collaborate on what is taught. Recommending that, “Leading kaiako [teachers]… incorporate te reo Maori and matauranga Maori in the co-design of localised curriculum with whanau, hapu, and iwi.”

Given New Zealand’s current mediocre ranking in international educational standards, how can involving “whanau, hapu, and iwi” while undertaking such a prominent and important role improve our children’s education?

Hipkins must believe it will help, otherwise why allow the refresh to be structured so? – John Porter

The sad saga of Hipkins’s (in)competence continues with him covering himself in failure by being responsible for the disastrous centralisation of polytechnics. So far this has cost the education sector around $200 million! – John Porter

Only in a Labour government would this level of ineptness be tolerated!

There was any number of experts warning Hipkins “that his centralised model wasn’t going to deliver better educational outcomes and be more financially viable” but the “we know best” philosophy kicked in and Hipkins pushed ahead with it anyway, leaving the polytech sector in total disarray! – John Porter

For five years, incompetence, failure and deceit have pervaded this Labour government and there is absolutely no reason to believe this will not continue under Hipkins’s leadership.

Do you want more of the same? Do you want our country to sink further into a mire of debt and skewed ethnic ideology? No? Then –

Don’t be fooled by the choir boy looks! – John Porter

After nearly six years in Government the only thing Labour has delivered is a cost-of-living crisis hurting New Zealanders – Christopher Luxon

After six long years of Labour’s tax and spend-a-thon, Kiwis deserve to keep more of their own hard-earned money. They also deserve a Government that can manage the wider economy to make sure every Kiwi can get ahead, not just have millions of dollars poured down the drain. – Christopher Luxon

Let’s be clear – Labour recklessly spending an extra $50 billion since 2017 has got New Zealand and Kiwis into the position we’re now in.

Today’s moves are no more than a rounding error – pocket change in Labour’s grand scheme to spend, spend, spend with nothing to show for it except Kiwis struggling to feed their families with food prices spiralling.

Labour has no real economic plan to tackle New Zealand’s skyrocketing inflation and help Kiwis get ahead. – Christopher Luxon

Having an inquiry asking why banks seek the safest most profitable investment is like asking why scorpions sting, it is what they do.Having an inquiry asking why banks seek the safest most profitable investment is like asking why scorpions sting, it is what they do. – Richard Prebble

To create a pre-election economic boom Robertson granted the Reserve Bank a taxpayer guarantee to continue printing a billion dollars a week. The result was near-zero interest rates, an economic stimulus, rocketing asset and house prices, an election win and today’s inflation. – Richard Prebble

At its heart banking is risky. It is borrowing short money from depositors that can be withdrawn at any time, and lending money out long, on loans like 20-year mortgages. Every bank fears that depositors might demand their money back.

The history of banking is the history of capitalism. The gathering of savings by banks and lending it to business funded the modern economy. It is also a history of banking collapses.

It was the failure of hundreds of banks in the US that triggered the Great Depression. The GFC was triggered by the failure of Lehman Brothers bank.

Bank failures have brought down whole countries.

The regulators’ solution is to require banks to have larger reserves. The safest reserves are government bonds that can readily be sold for cash. – Richard Prebble

Our Reserve Bank Governor knows what is far worse than banks making excessive profits, it is banks losing money. He points out the cost of the central bank’s policies is chump change compared to the cost of an economic collapse.

This column warned against money printing, zero interest rates, special loan facilities for banks and allowing banks to deposit money with the Reserve Bank at 4.75 per cent.

As we said at the time, if money printing is so risky that the Reserve Bank needs a taxpayer guarantee, then it is too risky for the country. The guarantee is now costing the Government billions of dollars, money not available for the cyclone recovery.

The best thing would have been never to have printed the money.

Now we must deal with the consequences. – Richard Prebble

While the Reserve Bank has now closed its special facility and stopped printing money, it has not withdrawn the surplus cash from the economy.

It is why the banks pay an interest rate less than inflation even for long-term deposits. Seeing the value of their retirement savings fall is not chump change for the elderly. It is encouraging retirees to make risky investments to preserve their savings.

We do not need a banking inquiry. We just need the Reserve Bank restore its balance sheet and stop subsidising the Aussie banks. – Richard Prebble

Not since 1989 have food prices risen this fast in New Zealand. Food prices have increased more in the past three years than they did in the entire nine years of the previous National Government,” says Ms Willis.

“Labour has failed to address the underlying drivers of inflation in our economy and Kiwis are facing the consequences every time they shop.

“Soaring food prices can’t just be blamed on international factors. New Zealand food producers have had it tough under Labour: new farming regulations, worker shortages and additional business costs are all showing up in the prices Kiwis now have to pay at the supermarket. – Nicola Willis

PIt is becoming increasingly difficult to see how the Greens can support another Labour-led government if they are able to do so after this year’s election. Already, co-leader James Shaw has warned Labour not to take it for granted that the Greens will automatically support Labour again (even though by ruling out ever working with National the Greens have left themselves nowhere else to go if they want to remain a party of government.) – Peter Dunne

But it is also a problem for Labour. Having so emphatically abandoned so many of the policies dearest to the Greens’ hearts as distractions and too expensive, Hipkins will have no credibility if he seeks to re-introduce some or all of them after the election as the price of a coalition or new confidence and supply agreement with the Greens. To do so, would be the ultimate act of duplicity, which voters would take a long time to forgive.

Yet, if Shaw’s comments are to be taken seriously, and not just treated as pre-election shadowboxing, Hipkins will have to offer some significant concessions to the Greens if he wishes to remain Prime Minister after the election.
Voters can therefore be rightfully suspicious that policies abandoned now as unaffordable, or undesirable, and a few more besides, will re-emerge after the election as the price of a deal with the Greens. – Peter Dunne

National’s Luxon makes the point that if the policy bonfire is a genuine scrapping of unpopular policies, then the Labour government is left with very little to show for the last five and a half years in office. He now needs to hammer home this point – that, by its own admission, Labour’s cupboard is bare, and therefore that the last five and a years have been largely a waste of time. National also needs to constantly harry Labour on what policies are gone forever and which ones will return after the election, as the price of doing a deal with the Greens.

In a nutshell, it comes down to this. Labour cannot stay in government without the support of the Greens, notwithstanding their current grumpiness and threats not to support Labour. Each knows the only outcome from that would be a National-led government, which would be political anathema to both. Therefore, some sort of deal will have to be done between them.

Consequently, voters will be rightfully wary about how credible, Hipkins’ self-proclaimed “bread and butter” policy reset is, or whether, as is looking increasingly likely, it is no more than a cynical stunt to save Labour’s electoral bacon.

The Greens may well know the answer already. – Peter Dunne

Academics have to have preserved for them that freedom of being able to express views that they have, and it’s absolutely inappropriate for them to be shut down by the chief executive. – Penny Simmonds 

A crucial role of academia is as critic and conscience of society, which means having (Shock! horror!) political opinions. Sheesh. Dude needs to pull his head in and get a grip. – Rebekah Graham

Making worst worse

First the good news: Fonterra has reported a 50% increase in its half-year profit:

Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd today released its 2023 Interim Results which show the Co-op has delivered a half year Profit After Tax of $546 million, an earnings per share of 33 cents, and a decision to pay an interim dividend of 10 cents per share alongside a forecast Farmgate Milk Price range of $8.20 – $8.80 per kgMS.

The Co-op also upgraded its full year forecast normalised earnings from 50-70 cents per share to 55-75 cents per share and announced a proposed tax free capital return to farmer owners and unit holders of around 50 cents per share, subject to completion of the sale of its Chilean Soprole business.  . .

Now for the bad news.

In spite of the good result for our biggest company, the country recorded its worst current account deficit yet:

The annual current account deficit was $33.8 billion (8.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)) in the year ended 31 December 2022. This was $12.7 billion wider than in the year ended 31 December 2021 (6.0 percent of GDP), according to figures released by Stats NZ today.

This is the largest annual current account deficit to GDP ratio since the series began in March 1988. The largest prior to the COVID pandemic was 7.8 percent of GDP in December 2008, during the global financial crisis.

A current account deficit reflects that we are spending more than we are earning overseas. The size of the current account balance in relation to GDP shows its significance in the context of New Zealand’s overall economy.

The widening in the annual current account deficit was mainly due to a $10.0 billion widening of goods and services deficit and $2.7 billion widening of the income deficit. . .

This will almost certainly get worse as a result of Cyclone Gabrielle’s destruction of export crops.

And there’s more bad news:

Gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.6 percent in the December 2022 quarter, following a 1.7 percent rise in the September 2022 quarter, according to quarterly figures released by Stats NZ today.  . . .

National’s Finance spokesperson, Nicola Willis,  says the deepening cracks in the economy are putting more people at risk of financial distress:

. . . “This result is worse than many had anticipated, with the Reserve Bank having forecast 0.7 per cent growth for the period,” Ms Willis said.

“Excluding Covid-19 lockdowns, it is the weakest quarterly growth since the Global Financial Crisis.

“A stalling economy is yet more bad news for New Zealanders already battling sky-high inflation and rapidly rising interest rates.

“Under Labour, the economy is in trouble and New Zealanders are paying the price. Workers are already suffering from badly-stretched after-tax incomes and a weakening economy means things will get worse.

“We also learnt this week that New Zealand now has its largest current account deficit since records began, meaning we are collectively living beyond our means.

“Taken together, the outlook for the New Zealand economy looks increasingly worrying: the cost of living crisis is dragging on even while interest rates climb, debts grow and businesses stall. . . 

“Today’s data confirms once again how badly our economy is travelling under Labour. The key question now is how much worse things will get.”

The worst current account gap since records began and a worse than expected GDP is a bad combination for us all.

There’s nothing to give us confidence the government has a plan that will make matters better and far too much evidence of policies that will make them worse.

Continuing to waste money on Three Waters, Auckland’s light rail project and  plans for pumped hydro at Lake Onslow in spite of a 300% increase in costs to $16 billion are just three examples of how the government will make the worst economic records yet even worse.