Last Saturday during a conversation with a former MP the topic of a return to parliament came up.
He said, “You can never go back, even if you try it’s never to the same place.”
Sir Roger Douglas’s valedictory speech in which he spoke of his achievements in the 1980s when he was Finance Minister in a Labour government and said nothing of the last three years as an Act MP, is proof of that.
The former MP added, “John Banks will discover that too.”
But if current polling of the Epsom electorate is a true indication of what will happen on election day, it is possible that he won’t get a chance.
The poll shows National candidate Paul Goldsmith is well ahead of Banks, even though he’s campaigning for the party vote not both.
That might change in the next few weeks but it is possible that Banks won’t win the electorate and with the loss of that seat Act’s hopes of staying in parliament will almost certainly go too.
Epsom voters, like those in Ohariu, have voted tactically in the last few elections, giving the wee party candidate their electorate vote and their party votes to National.
Even though it’s the party vote that counts and they have a National list MP, it isn’t something party members enjoy.
The poll suggests that other voters in Epsom are getting sick of it too and will have to be given some very good reasons to continue splitting their votes.
Should the election defy the poll prediction and send not just Banks but Act party leader Don Brash back to parliament, Dr Brash will also find that he can’t go back.
Being leader of a wee party on the way down is very different from leading a major party ont he way up.
Homepaddock 