In case no-one’s noticed . . .

October 3, 2011

. . . the Silver Ferns are playing England tonight in the first of two netball tests.

The second is in Invercargill on Thursday.


iPredict not as bad for Labour as polls

October 3, 2011

The outlook for Labour isn’t quite so bad on iPredict as it was in Sunday night’s polls.

This week’s snapshot from New Zealand’s online predictions market, iPredict, forecasts an election-night gap between National and Labour much narrower than that suggested by the average of this weekend’s TVNZ and TV3 polls.  While the average of the TV polls suggests National will win 56.7% of the party vote and Labour 27.8% – a gap of 28.9% – iPredict is forecasting a National party vote of only 50.0%, with Labour winning 28.5%, a gap of just 21.5%. The Greens have built further on last week’s all-time iPredict high, with their forecast party vote reaching 10.7%.

The West Coast Tasman seat however, is worse for Labour:

In electorate contests, Labour’s electorate-only Damien O’Connor now risks leaving Parliament, with his chances in West Coast-Tasman deteriorating to just 45%.  . .

. . .  For the first time since March, National’s Chris Auchinvole is expected to retain the rugby league loving West Coast-Tasman (55% probability up from 47% last week).  This follows media reports of attacks on prominent rugby league supporter Sir Peter Leitch (”The Mad Butcher”) by two Labour MPs.

That sorry episode started in social media where it might only have been seen by political tragics but was soon picked up by mainstream media where it had a much wider audience.

It happened after polling stopped but could have had an impact on the iPredict result.

One snapshot of a prediction market is no more reliable than a single poll and a small number of punts can make significant changes.

But a series of polls in combination with iPredict continue to show a very wide gap between National and Labour.


October 3, 2011

5/10 in NZ History Online’s quiz.

Don’t have to vote no change to change MMP – CORRECTED

October 3, 2011

The campaign for MMP is telling voters they should vote for MMP to get a review of that system of voting.

But if a majority vote for change we will also get a review of MMP.

A second referendum will then be held allowing us to choose between MMP, with any changes to the system adopted from the review, and whichever alternative system most voters chose in the first referendum.

However, voting for MMP doesn’t guarantee you’ll get the changes you want or any changes at all.

The chances of getting consensus on improvements to the system aren’t high.


Comments from Gavin and David below points out I’m wrong on this and there will only be a review if people vote to keep MMP.

I based my post on memory of a plan to have a review of MMP regardless of the outcome of the first referendum. That obviously didn’t make it through to legislation.

You know the year’s going too quickly when . . .

October 3, 2011

. . . you’re three days in to October before you notice the calendars are still on September.

Cue Dr Seuss: How did it get so late so soon?

Do candidates help party vote?

October 3, 2011

Parties stand candidates in electorates they have no hope of winning so they can solicit party votes.

Does it help?

I don’t know the answer to that but National doesn’t stand candidates in the Maori electorates and the latest Marae Digipoll shows the party has 22.4% of support from Maori on the general roll compared with only 13.2% support from Maori on the Maori roll.

That could mean having candidates helps, but it could also mean Maori who opt for the general roll are more likely to support National than those who don’t.

National support from Maori isn’t high on either roll, but the party gained only 7.4% from Maori roll voters in 2008 and is now getting almost twice that support.

Its coalition partner the Maori Party has 11% support from Maori on the general roll and 27.7% support from people on the Maori roll, compared with 28.9% at the last election.

The Mana Party had 12% support from Maori roll voters but only 1.6% support from those on the general roll.

Support for other parties: Green Party 5.6% on the Maori roll and 8.1% on the general one; New Zealand First  4.1% and 7.1%; Act 0 and 2.1%; Progressive 0 and .6% and other 1.7% and 1.9%.

Act, NZ First and Progressive don’t usually have candidates in Maori electorates either.

Only one poll counts

October 3, 2011

It’s a political truism that only one poll counts.

It’s another that the trend is a friend.

That last point might be true for National but it’s definitely not for Labour as the gap between the two parties continues to widen.

Last night’s ONE News Colmar Brunton poll has more poll woe for Labour and Goff:

National 56% steady; Labour 29% down 1%; Green Party 9% up 3%; NZ First 2% steady;  Act 1% down 1% ; Maori Party 1% steady; Mana Party 1% steady.

Assuming Act, Maori Party and United Future held electorate seats the make up of parliament would be: National 69; Labour 36; Green Party 11; Maori Party 4; Act 2; United Future NZ 1; Mana Party 1.

John Key has gone up 6 to 59% as preferred Prime Minister; Phil Goff is steady on 8%.

The 3 News Reid Research political poll has National with more than twice the support than Labour is attracting:

National up 3.5 to 57.4%; Labour down 2.2 to 26.6%; Green party up .5 to 9.8%; NZ First down .3 to 1.9%; Act down .6% to 1.6%, Maori Party down .7 to .8%; Mana steady on .7% and United Future steady on nothing.

Key attracts 54.5% support as preferred Prime Minister in contrast to just 6.2% support for Goff.

Polling was done before the news of ratings downgrades broke.

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