Wee parties looking shakey

Vernon Small  says the Maori Party is the only one of the wee parties likely to have many MPs after the election.

The Greens are widely expected to reach the 5 per cent threshold needed under MMP to stay on Parliament, but have dipped under that in the latest poll.

At the moment the small parties have 23 seats out of 121 – 24 if you include political refugee Taito Phillip Field.

On these numbers, no more than eight or nine seats – four or five for the Maori Party, Jim Anderton, Peter Dunne and probably Rodney Hide – would go to parties outside Labour and National in a 123-seat House.

That is a drop from 19 per cent of the seats to 6.5 per cent.

Facing an election wipeout that delivers a near first-past-the-post election result, the minor parties are struggling to offer the electorate something relevant.

They are also handicapped by the Electoral Finance Act. Unable to spend their own money and without the people power which enables National and Labour to return to the old fashioned door knocking campaigns the wee parties aren’t able to get their messages across.

In 2002, when a Labour landslide was in prospect, voters turned to United Future and NZ First to curb Labour’s power after it fell out with the Greens over genetic modification.

At the start of the campaign, Labour had been polling at or above 50 per cent, but on election night that fell to 41 per cent.

Labour’s core support is holding up, but if the polls continue to show it won’t lead the next government it is possible that it will lose more support to the wee parties by those wanting to moderate National.

With one eye on that result – and in preparation for a possible collapse in Labour’s vote if it looks doomed – United Future and NZ First have started talking up their role in “keeping National honest”.

NZ First leader Winston Peters’ has said that National cannot be trusted on superannuation, despite Mr Key’s promise not to touch it.

Even Hone Harawira – seen as the Maori Party MP most hostile to National – has talked about working with National.

UnitedFuture leader Peter Dunne said last week his party would be needed to moderate the extremes of National or Labour.

NZ First has said it will talk to the bigger party “first” – which seems certain to be National.

Mr Peters has in the past preferred “clean” coalitions involving the smallest number of parties, but Labour believes his recent track record would not rule out a multi-party deal to return Helen Clark to office.

However, NZ First party insiders insist it is committed to talking to the biggest party first.

The Greens are a longer shot for National though they might strike a deal to abstain, or displace another support option for National, if a Labour-led administration is out of the question.

Jim Anderton’s Progressives are indivisibly tied to Labour, while it is inconceivable ACT would ever prefer Labour to National – though it sees electoral benefit in criticising National for being too centrist.

Perhaps this is why Helen Clark is delaying the announcement of the election date. The shorter the campaign the less opportunity there is for the wee parties to gain ground at Labour’s expense.