Most votes are in the middle

National understandably gets criticism for going too far to the right from the left – that’s where the opposition ought to be.

But it also has to face criticism from the right, including from within its membership, for not going far enough.

A party which wants to stay in power needs the support of its own members and supporters but under MMP that’s not enough, it needs the support of swinging voters and most of those are in or near the centre.

That’s something parties towards the far ends of the political spectrum and their supporters don’t seem to realise. They are convinced of their positions but they can never persuade many others to join them there.

As Trans Tasman says:

There’s an odd similarity between Harawira bid to get into Parliament with his own party and Don Brash’s – both will be too extreme to have any real impact on policy.

If either Harawira or Brash and their parties are in a position to exert influence on or in the government after the election they will get some concessions, but that’s all.

Both bigger parties would  lose too much from the centre if they went too far to accommodate coalition or support partners on the extremes.

Labour and Peter Dunne are already trying to use the spectre of a Brash-led Act party pulling National to the hard right but that ploy can be used against them. 

What would most voters rather have – a Labour,Maori Party, Green, NZ First, Dunne and maybe Harawira hodge-podge or National strong enough to stand its ground if its coalition partners pull too far?

8 Responses to Most votes are in the middle

  1. pdm says:

    I think people calling Don Brash `extreme’ are off the mark. His views are shared by a number who know that we presently have too much Government in our lives plus too many people dependent on the state.

    A Finance triumvirate of Brash, Joyce and Foss after the election would be a good start to getting the NZ economy moving.

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  2. homepaddock says:

    PDM – I agree with a lot of where Don want’s to take NZ. It’s the speed at which he wants to get there which I think could be too extreme for most.

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  3. pdm says:

    HP – isn’t speed of the essence after a very cautious first term by the current government. I suggest ACT will gain a fair bit of support if they campaign on these four things:

    1. Winding back WFF
    2. Removal of ETS
    3. Removal of Maori Seats
    4. Sale of non assets/liabilities such as NZ Rail, TVNZ and opening up SOE’s to private investment.

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  4. Nick K says:

    HP – if it’s only speed we are arguing about, let Act & National agree on the timeframes then. Simple.

    First timeframe, reinstate youth rates. When? Nest week. Why? It’s in National’s manifesto and they argued against abolition for years when in opposition.

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  5. Paranormal says:

    HP – keep saying the mantra. One day it might just become the truth (as Goebbels would have it).

    Unfortunately history proves you wrong. Lange Douglas made massive changes and were re-eleceted on an increased majority. It should be easier these days with improved communication.

    The Key/English government will go down in history as being huge wasters. They have wasted the once in a lifetime golden opportunity that very few politicians get. They were elected on a platform of change. World economic conditions, and New Zealand conditions (crime, education, welfare etc.) set the scene for someone of stature to make a real difference for New Zealand’s future.

    Douglas followed by Richardson set up the next 20 years of prosperity. Unfortunately Blenglish has set up a faster decline to third world status through unprincipled borrowing just to maintain power. (I say unprincipled as Blenglish wants the socialist power that is bought by taxing many to buy political favours).

    The next government is going to have to make some hard decisions, made harder by the current governments spineless behaviour. Even if National had planned to change and become principled in the next term, history will now show they were forced into it by Don or circumstances or whatever.

    Key and Blenglish have missed the opportunity to be a stand out government for ever.

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  6. alex Masterley says:

    Brash will attract support from around the margins. But he is not the kind of guy that Chris Trotter’s Waitakere man/woman will warm to. John Key on the other hand is.

    My take on things is the Nats are taking the long view moving cautiously, employing the softly softly catchee monkey approach, or slowly hearding the electorate towards the destination relaising that the wastelands created by the last Labour government cannot be repaired (sorry mixing metaphors here) instantly.

    If the Nats tried that then the electorate would be frightened back to labour. The get stuck in merchants of Act haven’t realised that.

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  7. gravedodger says:

    I opine that many of those to the right of center are deeply concerned at the borrowing required to fund student loans many of which are going to be written off, Working For Families where tax is recycled to very high earners, and welfare for the ever increasing number of sick people who are too sick to find work but are well enough to commit crimes.
    People who choose a school with higher fees than the elite state schools being taxed to fund both when in fact many find the additional funds to purchase a house of higher value in the CBHS, Wellington College or Grammer school zones.
    As pdm stated above many are fed up with the increasing interference and removal of hard earned money to fund such waste that in reality is an enormous hand brake on the growth we need to get our economy growing again as the primary sector is doing so spectacularly at present in spite of the government drag.
    I hope that this ruction on the right of our political divide does empower the next government to make more bold moves and I agree that Joyce, Brash and if necessary Foss or someone less tainted than Bill English can make the moves taking enough of the working New Zealanders with them to make them stick.
    We are way beyond “panadol and sticking plaster” solutions. I think National is becoming too vulnerable to a campaign based on “are you any better off than you were three years ago”, a status that is the direct result of the profligacy and bribery waste of the socialist nine year nightmare combined with the global recession but becoming a cracked record as time drifts by.

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  8. pdm says:

    GD – don’t underestimate Foss. He is not Chair of the Finance and Expenditure Select Committe for nothing and has a background in Merchant Banking in the UK. I recall him addressing a business meeting about half way through his first term in Parliament. He said he found it hard to believe that there were very few people in Parliament on either side with the vision to see past the next election.

    Too many people underestimate and denigrate the vision of Sir Roger Douglas.

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