The ODT is predicting that the Maori Party will win Te Tai Tonga:
Once the fiefdom of the Tirikatene family, this enormous electorate covering all the South Island, and a small part of Wellington, has been held solidly by Labour’s Mahora (sic) Okeroa since 2002.
At 40 on Labour’s list, he must have a reasonable hope of remaining in the house, but he is under a severe electorate challenge from Rahui Katene of the Maori Party (he (sic) is 7th on its list).
If Mr (sic) Katene can win a majority, it may ensure the Maori Party wins all seven Maori electorates, thus giving the party its hoped-for powerful position in the House, especially if the election is reasonably close.
It is being widely predicted that Mr (sic) Katene will win the seat, with the party vote going to Labour.
Update: This is a cut and paste but as Buggerlugs points out below Rahui is a woman.
Update 2: A Maori TV poll gave Mahara Okeroa a 10 point lead over Rahui Katene but nearly a quarter of the 500 people polled are undecided.