It’s about trust

June 19, 2014

The focus has gone on a letter David Cunliffe wrote 11 years ago.

That he couldn’t remember having written it – when probably all he did was sign it – is not surprising.

That his staff couldn’t find the letter suggests their record keeping isn’t as good as it could be which is bad.

That someone knew about the letter, and didn’t tell anyone in the party suggests the party has enemies within, which is worse.

But the issue of the letter is trivial.

What is far more significant is the money Donghua Liu donated to the party which wasn’t declared.

If he donated more than the limit for disclosure then failure to disclose it is an electoral offence.

What will be equally concerning for the party is that Cunliffe and other MPs have wasted weeks tying to damn National for links with Liu when they too had received money from him.

Someone in the party was giving Cunliffe a large amount of rope which has tripped him up and may yet not just hang him but strangle the party too.

Trust matters.

If there’s such abuse of trust inside Labour, they can’t possibly expect trust from outside.

There will be absolutely no comfort for Labour, or the left in the latest poll:

Labour’s support has slumped to its lowest level since the 2011 election, with leader David Cunliffe battling for survival after it emerged he intervened in a residency application for Chinese businessman Donghua Liu.

In the latest political poll, the party has dropped 6 percentage points to 23 per cent. National is soaring on 56 per cent, which would allow it to govern alone. Click here for full graphics. 

Cunliffe has failed to stop his party’s slide in the poll since he took over as leader in September, and is now facing election humiliation. His support as preferred prime minister slipped to 11 per cent, down two points. Prime Minister John Key edged ahead, up three points to 51.4 per cent. . .







The polling was done before the Liu allegations were made public.

However, there is no cause for complacency from National when you look at the response on whether or not it’s time for a change in government.







There are more people thinking it’s not time for a change than thinking it is, but there’s enough people who aren’t sure to tip the balance.

All this mud Labour slung failed to make a hit on National but it has dirtied itself and it has also added to the disenchantment many people have with politicians and politics in general.

Rather than getting the so-called missing million who didn’t vote last time to turn up this time, Labour’s stupidity is likely to result in even fewer people bothering.

Trust matters and people who don’t trust the people or the process aren’t likely to vote at all.

Concentrating on what matters

May 14, 2014

I’ve sat through countless candidate college and campaign training sessions where aspiring MPs have been told if the PM is talking about them when he wants to be talking about something else, it’s rarely good news.

Given the amount of time he’d had to be talking about a couple of senior members of caucus recently, a big hit in the polls could have been expected.

There was a drop in support for National in the poll, but not a big one, and Labour went down further:

While both major parties took a slight hit, National remains high on 47.6 per cent support.

That was down 1.8 percentage points on our last poll, but still enough to govern alone if the results were mirrored on election night. . . .

Labour has slipped 2.3 percentage points to 29.50 per cent, taking it below the morale-busting 30 per cent threshold for the first time. . .

There will be a multitude of reasons for this, among them is that each time he got the opportunity, the PM said, that the side shows exercising political tragics weren’t what matters and then talked about what does – the economy, health, education, law and order, welfare.

Meanwhile, Labour wasted valuable media opportunities trying to manufacture scandal instead of talking about the things that really matter to people.

The result is they lost 2.3 percentage points of support and David Cunliffe dropped 3.9%


Preferred Prime Minister


Stuff political poll

One of the factors helping National’s support is voter confidence in the country’s direction:

. . . But Labour’s biggest enemy may be the improving economy, with the poll showing 63.6 per cent of voters believe the country is on the right track. . .

There’s still more than four months until the election and anything could happen before then.

It was rare for a party to get more than 50% support under FPP, there’s only a very faint hope this poll would be replicated at the election and allow National to govern alone.

The only certainty to take from this  poll is that what the opposition concentrates on, and the media appears to be interested in, isn’t what matters to most voters.

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