Labour list version 3

The Labour list is now on version three (the first one had Judith Tizard at number 1; the second had Lesley Soper at 77 when she’s at 44 – still almost certainly not likely to be back in parliament but not as insulting as 77).

The Hive has a prediction of who’ll be in and who’ll miss out here.

Inventory 2 from Keeping Stock left a comment on the previous post pointing to a correction at No Minister : Sir Ronnie Flanagan is not the British Home Minister.

Keeping Stock also linked to the analysis on Kiwiblog which includes this summary based on public polls and not knowing which electorates will be won or lost:

So what will Labour’s Caucus look like? Well on the current public polling scenario giving them 45 MPs, it would be:

• Only 8 MPs or 18% from the South Island
• 38% female, which isn’t bad at all
• 49% would be aged in their 50s though
• They would have only six Maori MPs – the same number as National! They would be Horomia, Mahuta, Jones, Ririnui, Mackey, and Davis
• Four Pacific Island MPs – Laban, Sio, Chauvel and Sepuloni
• Three Asian MPs – Choudary, Prasad, and Huo

What does it say when they’ll have just 8 Labour MPs in the South Island?  

It’s a sad reflection on the party’s view on the importance of the mainland. Although we may well be better off without more of them 🙂

Apart from that this list means the Labour caucus will have fresh blood at the expense of several sitting MPs who now face a life outside parliament. If their idea of their importance is higher than their list placings indicate that will not make the Labour caucus a happier place to be.

What does it say about democratic selections porcesses too? That’s eight new propsective MPs who have been selected by the party elite rather than members at large.

8 new names on Labour list, but where?

TV3, The Herald and Stuff all carry news that the Labour list had eight new faces who were promoted over some sitting MPs.

However, none have the whole list nor do they say where the newcomers are placed on it. The Labour website is paid for by parliamentary services so won’t mention candidates either.

On the running average of polls Labour is likely to have no more MPs after the election and may have fewer so Helen Clark will have the task of keeping disaffected MPs in line to add to her troubles.

The new people on the list are:

Rajen Prasad, former Race Relations Conciliator and Chief Families Commissioner;  Jacinda Ardern, a senior policy adviser to British Home Secretary Sir Ronnie Flanagan; Raymond Huo a lawyer and writer;  Phil Twyford, former global head of policy for Oxfam;  Council of Trade Unions secretary Carol Beaumont;  Maori education advocate Kelvin Davis; Carmel Sepuloni,  an equity manager at Auckland University; and Stuart Nash, who stood in Epsom last election and if memory serves me right conetested and lost the selection for Napier.

I wonder if the CTU will have the same problems with their secretary standing for Labour as the EPMU does with Shawn Tan standing for Act?

Update: I see on Keeping Stock that I should have checked Scoop which has the full list.

Exactly who gets in on the list depends on the party vote and which canidates further back on the list win seats because each seat won puts those in front of them on the list back a slot.

On current polling anyone past the mid 30s will be unlikely to get in unless they win a seat which could include some MPs.

Damien O’Connor at 37 followed by  Judith Tizard, Mark Burton, Mahara Okeroa, Martin Gallagher, Dave Hereora to  Louisa Wall at 43 will be unlikely to still be in parliament unless they win seats. Lesley Soper doesn’t have a show at 77 and unless she requested to be in a totally unelectable position it’s an insult to put a sitting MP so low.