A snap in time

July 22, 2016

This month’s Roy Morgan poll shows a big jump in support for National and a slump in support for Labour:

During July support for National jumped a large 10% to 53%, now well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 37% (down 5.5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National, with their biggest lead since May 2015, would win easily.

However, support for the National partners was down slightly with the Maori Party down 1.5% to 0.5%, Act NZ was up 0.5% to 1% and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Support fell for all three Parliamentary Opposition parties; Labour’s support was 25.5% (down 2.5%) – the lowest support for Labour since May 2015; Greens support was 11.5% (down 3%) and NZ First 7% (down 2%). Of parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0.5% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 0.5% (down 0.5%).

rmp

The NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased to 127pts (up 6.5pts) in July with 57.5% (up 3%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 30.5% (down 3.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. . . 

Any poll is only a snap in time.

Last month’s snap showed a larger drop in support for the government, this month’s shows a larger increase.

This result indicates those snapped are more confident in the government and its direction in spite of the slew of negative headlines in the last few weeks.

It could indicate that people accept that problems a long time in the making will be a long time in the solving and aren’t looking to the government for miracles.

It could indicate that people looking at instability in so many other parts of the world are opting for stability here.

Whatever it indicates, it is only a snap in time and the next snap could be very different.


Of course it’s the economy

September 3, 2014

The latest Roy Morgan poll identifies economic issues as the most important in New Zealand:

 Just three weeks before NZ heads to a National Election, Economic issues (41%, down 3% since May 2014) are still clearly the most important problems facing New Zealand however the biggest problems facing the World today are War & Terrorism issues (35%, up a huge 15% since May) now ahead of Economic Issues for the first time ever according to the latest Roy Morgan Research conducted in July and August 2014.

New Zealand views on Problems facing New Zealand
When asked about the most important problem facing New Zealand, 41% of New Zealanders mention some kind of Economic issue. This is down 3% since May 2014 but still well ahead of Social issues (24%, up 3%), Government/ Public policy/ Human rights issues (19%, up 1%) and Environmental issues (6%, down 2%). . . .

Of course it’s the economy and economic issues that matter.

Only if the economy is growing can we afford the first world social services and infrastructure we need and the only way to make funding for these sustainable is with sustainable economic growth.

National’s policies are sustainable, Labour/Green/New Zealand First/ Internet Mana ones aren’t.

 

 


Poll of polls

August 23, 2014

Colin James’ poll of poll :

The first poll taken after the Nicky Hager book launch, by DigiPoll for the New Zealand Herald from August 14 to 20, did not dent National’s polling average, which was 50.8% in the four polls up to mid-August. DigiPoll recorded a drop from its last poll in mid-July but gave a higher figure than the TV3 poll which dropped out of the latest four-poll average.

(Explainer: The POLL of POLLS is an arithmetical average of the four most recent major polls since mid-June ,from among the following: Fairfax Media-TV1 Colmar Brunton, TV3 Reid Research, Ipsos, NZ Herald DigiPoll, Roy Morgan New Zealand (up to June only one of its two-a-month was included) and UMR Research, which is not published.*)

DigiPoll’s 25.2% reading for Labour dragged Labour’s average down to 25.3%. That average included the Ipsos poll for Fairfax Media, which gave National much more and Labour much less than other recent polls. . . .

The Greens’ average is steady at 11.9%, within a range it has held since the last election. . .

New Zealand First has got close to the 5% hurdle, with a 4.9% average to mid-August, boosted by a high 6.5% in the Roy Morgan poll. Internet-Mana was 2.7%, the Conservatives 2.4%, the Maori party 0.9%, ACT 0.5% and United Future 0.3%. . .

There was a slight lift in the latest Roy Morgan reading (from August 4-17) of whether the country is heading in the right direction. This slight lift is more confirmation that the mood is topping out but it remains very positive. . .

The level of confidence the country is heading in the right direction is important and backs up National’s assertion that it and its policies are working for New Zealand.


If an election was held tomorrow . . .

July 17, 2014

The question polling companies ask is if an election was held tomorrow which party would you vote for?

The answer to that is very encouraging for National and very depressing for Labour and the parties it would need to cobble together a government.

Last night’s Roy Morgan poll and today’s Fairfax Media Ipsos poll, both confirm the trend of National above 50% and Labour and the GIMPs below it.

But the election isn’t being held tomorrow and while the odds favour National that could actually work against it.

No party has won 50% support since we’ve had MMP and the high support could lead to complacency.

National supporters might think they don’t need to vote or they can afford to play with their party vote.

That certainly isn’t the case.

Complacency or over-confidence from centre right voters could let Labour and the Green, NZ First and Internet Mana parties cobble together a coalition of the unwilling and ill-disciplined.

 


It’s only one poll

June 6, 2014

The latest Roy Morgan poll continues the positive trend for National:

. . . Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a strong gain in support for National (52.5%, up 7%) now at their highest since before the last New Zealand Election and well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance (38%, down 6%) – almost matching their performance at the 2011 New Zealand Election at which the two parties polled a combined 38.5%.

Support for Key’s Coalition partners has also improved with the Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ (1%, up 0.5%) and United Future 0% (unchanged).

Support has fallen significantly for all Opposition parties with the Labour Party down 1.5% to 29%, the Greens down 4.5% to 9% (the lowest support for the Greens since September 2011), New Zealand First 4.5% (down 1.5%) and Mana Party 0.5% (down 0.5%). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) and the Internet Party is 0.5% (unchanged).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be a landslide victory for the National Party and a third term for Prime Minister John Key. . .

But wait, there’s more good news:

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has also improved considerably – up 8.5pts to 140.5pts with 64.5% (up 4.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 24% (down 4%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a strong positive response to the predicted Budget Surplus of $372 million handed down by Finance Minister Bill English with National surging to 52.5% (up 7%) – it’s highest since the last New Zealand Election. National has surged to a huge lead over a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (38%, down 6%).

“The closer the election, it appears the less support there is for the main opposition parties with support for Labour (29%, down 1.5%) now stuck below the level that prompted the resignation of previous leader David Shearer for most of 2014. The initial surge provided by David Cunliffe has well and truly worn off. In addition the Greens (9%, down 4.5%) have slumped to their lowest level of support since before the last New Zealand election after announcing last weekend a proposal to introduce a Carbon Tax in New Zealand in place of the current Emissions Trading Scheme.

“Last week’s merger announcement of the Internet Party (0.5%) and Mana Party (0.5%) to contest this year’s election offers both parties a better chance of attaining the 5% threshold required to elect a slate of Party List MPs. However, the combined support for the two parties has never exceeded 2%, and it would appear unlikely the merged party can bridge this gap in the next few months.” . . .

Polls can be too good, of course.

This level of support for National could make supporters complacent.

Some might think they can afford to vote for another party, others might not bother to vote at all.

However, while it continues the positive trend for National of other recent polls, it is only one poll and the one which is usually regarded as the least reliable.

But is it?

Thomas Lumley at Stats Chat, says it’s not:

. . . In fact, there’s not much difference between the major polling companies in the variability of their estimates. . .

There really is not much to see here. So why do people feel that Roy Morgan comes out with strange results more often? Probably because Roy Morgan comes out with results more often.

For example, the proportion of poll-to-poll changes over 3 percentage points is 0.22 for One News/Colmar Brunton, 0.18 for Roy Morgan, and 0.23 for 3 News/Reid Research, all about the same, but the number of changes over 3 percentage points in this time frame is 5 for One News/Colmar Brunton, 14 for Roy Morgan, and 5 for 3 News/Reid Research. . .

What that shows is voter preference is volatile and that more frequent polls reflect that volatility.

That’s why it doesn’t pay to get too excited about a single poll, or even several with the same trend.

The volatility of support merely reinforces the oft repeated phrase, there’s only one poll that counts.

 

 


It’s the trend that matters

July 22, 2013

One or two polls, be they good or bad, aren’t significant.

It’s the trend that matters and the trend is down for Labour.

This week’s Roy Morgan poll with a drop of 2% for Labour shouldn’t matter. This poll tends to fluctuate but it’s not the only poll with bad news for what is supposed to be the major opposition party.

Last night’s 3 News/Reid Research poll confirms the slide:

Labour’s so-called “man-ban” got leader David Shearer plenty of attention, for all the wrong reasons.

And it’s got Labour going the wrong way on this poll – down, a drop of 2.1 percent.

“It’s a wake up call for us,” says Mr Shearer. “People want us to be focussed on them and not on Labour Party internal matters.”

“The Labour Party is focussed on the Labour Party and National is focussed on the country,” says Mr Key.

David Shearer’s hold on the leadership just got weaker but a change of leader won’t change much.

A party which can’t run itself isn’t ready to run a government and people have far more pressing concerns than Labour’s instability.

The other aspect of the poll which is of interest is the continuing popularity of John Key and National.

The party is maintaining similar levels of support to its election night result.

People will disagree with individual policies but the stability of support in the polls indicate they’re supportive of the general direction the government is taking the country and trust it in the areas which really matter.

That’s health, education, welfare and security not internal wrangling.


Views on the poll

October 10, 2008

Tim Selwyn at Tumeke! says no-one has told Centrebet about the latest Roy Morgan poll because the odds on Helen Clark winning have gone out to $4.50.

The Hive  notes The Greens & Act have earned their improved ratings.

No Minister   says this poll shows the Maori Party holds the balance of power.

Inquiring Mind  hopes it’s a rogue result.

Jafapete  says it’s game on.

Roarprawn also notes the Maori Party are king or queen makers.

Matthew Hooton has a poll of polls which is a little more comforting.

Cicero  is sceptical.

Frogblog thinks Roy Morgan is a sweet talker but wonders if the poll’s a rogue.

Tim Watkin says it’s out of step with other recent polls but John Key may have put an unlosable election at risk by trying not to rock the boat.

Bomber sees a seachange


Everyone said the polls would tighten . . .

October 10, 2008

And the latest Roy Morgan one certainly has.

National’s down 7 to 40.5% and Labour’s up 1 to 37.5%.

The Green Party is up 2.5 to 9%, NZ First is down 1 to 4%, Act is on 3.5% (up 2), the Maori Party is up .5% to 2%, Progressive is up 1 to 1% United is up .5 to 1% and others are up .5 to 1.5%.

While I don’t like the result, I’m even more puzzled by the confidence rating:

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating at 108.5 points (up 5.5 points) has risen as the election campaign has begun with 48% (up 4%) of New Zealanders saying the country is “heading in the right direction” compared to 39.5% (down 1%) that say the country is “heading in the wrong direction.”

The Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating (102.3 points, down 7.6 points) however has halted its recent climb dropping sharply as only 39% (down 7%) of New Zealanders say now is a “good time to buy” major household items.

The poll was taken between September 22 and October 5 which means it finished before the PREFU which showed the dreadful state of the nation’s books.

If anyone still thinks the country is heading in the right direction after that it is indeed proof that people ought to be required to pass a comprehension test before they’re allowed to vote.


It’s only one poll

September 4, 2008

The latest Roy Morgan poll  shows a significant narrowing of the gap between National and Labour.

National is now at 44% support (down 3.5) and Labour is up 4 to 38%.

There is some comfort in the knowledge that New Zealand First has only 2.5% support, down 4 points to the lowest they’e been for a year.

The Green Party got 8%  support (up 0.5), Maori Party 3.5% (up 1.5), ACT NZ 1.5%  (unchanged), United Future 1% (up 1) and others 1% (up 0.5).

It’s only one poll and the gap was going to tighten. But why it has when John Key showed he had both gumption and principles when he ruled Peters out of a National-led government; and while Helen Clark is bound tight to Peters; Labour is bulldozing through the Emissions Trading Scheme legislation; the economy is in recession and the party has still to announce any policy defies logic.

Like Fairfacts Media over at No Minister I’m gobsmacked.

[Update: Maybe we can take some hope from No Right Turn who reports on a poll which shows the Christian Heritage party which disbanded in 2006 got more support (.4%) than the Alliance and United.]


Only one party can change the government

August 2, 2008

The latest Roy Morgan Poll  shows National at 47.5% support (down 4.5) Labour up 1.5 to 32.5 %; Greens up .5 to 6%; NZ First dropped 1.5 to 5%; Maori Party up 2 to 3%; Act up 2 to 2.5% and United Future dropped 0.5 to 0.5%

This is Act’s highest level of suppport since March 2007 and will reflect Rodney Hide’s strong attack on Winston Peters.

People who think voting for possible support partners for National will help it form the Government might want to remember that although there are no certainties with MMP, the party with the highest vote on election day will have the greatest mandate to lead the next government. So the best way to get Labour out is to vote for National.

Not convinced? Think back to 2002 – Act got 7.1% of the vote and 9 MPs, and we got a Labour-led government.

The only way to change the government is to ensure National has the most votes.


Poll tightens

July 19, 2008

The latest Roy Morgan Poll show an increase in support for both National at 52% and Labour at 31% – both up .5. But a new Fairfax Media- Neilson poll  shows National down 3 to 51% and Labour up 5 to 35%.

A rolling average of polls has had National about 20 points ahead of Labour for months and the Fairfax poll is the smallest gap since last year.

John Key’s rating as preferred PM dropped from 43% to 39% and Helen Clark’s rose from 30 to 32.

I am not surprised the gap has tightened but I am surprised it has done so now when the truckers’ protest gained so much support which suggested a high proportion of anti-government sentiment; and when we’re facing recession.

Labour can’t be blamed for external factors including the price of oil, but had they not squandered the good times we’ve been experiencing the country would be better positioned to weather the bad.

The Morgan poll results were:

National Party support at 52% (up 0.5%) clearly ahead of the Labour Party 31% (up 0.5%), if an election were held now the National Party would win. Support for the Greens was 7.5% (down 0.5%), NZ First 6.5% (up 2.5% to its highest level since September 2006), Maori Party 1% (down 1.5%), United Future 1% (unchanged) and ACT NZ 0.5% (down 1.5%).

If ever there was a case for requiring people to take a comprehension test before they vote, it’s in that increase for NZ First 🙂

The Fairfax poll result in percentages: National 51 (54 last month) Labour 35 (30) Green 5 (7) NZ First 4 (3) Maori Party 2 (2) Act 1 (1) United Future 0 (1).

Preferred PM: John Key 39 (43)  Helen Clark 35 (30)  Winston Peters 3 (2).

The trend is more important than a single poll and this will not spook National. But it will hearten Labour and if Clark thinks her attacks on Key have been working we can expect them to not only continue but worsen.


And the Sun Doesn’t Rise in the East

June 23, 2008

Helen Clark is refusing to accept the large poll gap between National and Labour.

Prime Minister Helen Clark says three separate polls at the weekend that show Labour trailing National by over 20 percent are “very extreme” and overstate the Opposition’s lead.

 

A TV One Colmar Brunton poll last night had National on 55 percent with Labour lagging on 29 per cent support.

That followed Saturday’s Fairfax Media poll by AC Nielsen showing National winning 54 percent of the party vote against Labour’s 30 per cent.

The latest Roy Morgan poll also showed a large gap with National’s support up two to 52.5 per cent while Labour dropped 0.5 to 31.5 per cent.

But Miss Clark today refused to accept the size of the gap recorded in the polls, which she said were “very extreme”.

It is usual for poll gaps between  the two major parties to narrow and for the wee parties to get more support nearer to election day so these poll results may not mirror voter support when it counts. But the trend is clear, National and John Key are well ahead of Labour and Clark.

In light of that her real fear should be that softer supporters leave Labour and vote for the wee parties as happened with National in 2002.

Other blogs’ comments on the polls:

The Hive    No Minister    Truth Seeker      Keeping Stock     Inquiring Mind


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