The outlook for agriculture is brighter, or at least less gloomy, than for most other sectors according to the EU Prospects for Agricultural Markets which covers the period from 2008 to 2015.
The global financial crisis will have an impact in the short term but the medium outlook is more positive with a gradual recovery in commodity prices and:
- the growth in global food demand,
- the development of the biofuel sector and the
- long-term decline in food crop productivity growth.
The report points to lower production of milk and meat in the EU which means less competition for New Zealand produce.
While yesterday’s announcement that our gross domestic product declined .9% in the December quarter is sobering, agriculture outperformed other sectors:
SNZ said primary industry activity increased 1.6 percent in the December quarter, while activity in goods producing industries fell 3.6 percent.
A rise in agriculture production was mainly driven by increased dairy production. For the December year activity in primary industries increased 0.9 percent, compared to an increase of 3.6 percent for the year to December 2007.
The role meat and milk will play in our economic recovery was noted by AgResearch chief executive Andy West when he stressed the importance of research and development.
He cautions that R&D spend should not be curtailed as credit facilities dry up around the world.
While he doesn’t see any evidence of a decline in pastoral R&D spend in New Zealand, he agrees that it has come under pressure during the economic crisis.
. . . It is the single most important sector that will help us get out of the economic crisis,’ he told Rural News. ‘We have to export our way out and the dairy and meat sectors need all the assistance they can get.’
If the South Island field days are anything to go by, agriculture is not just the most important, it’s also one of the most positive sectors.
The Press reports that opening day numbers were up and while farmers were showing caution, they weren’t mentioning the r word.
And TV3 said that recession was a dirty word among the farmers they spoke to.
It’s possible they only interviewed the optimists. No-one is saying that farming is booming, but the mood in the paddocks does seem to be more cautious than depressed and the EU forecast suggests a brighter outlook in the medium term.
Hat Tip: Phil Clarke’s Business Blog