Home town advantage not enough

09/09/2013

Grant Robertson had the home town advantage at yesterday’s Labour leadership meeting in Dunedin, but the ODT reports David Cunliffe is the pragmatic pick for leader.

Those spoken to put Robertson second but a TV1 poll puts Cunliffe first, Shane Jones second and Robertson third.

 . . We have the results of our new Q+A Colmar Brunton snap poll of 510 people. We asked, which candidate is most likely to lead Labour to victory and beat John Key in 2014 election? David Cunliffe won by a clear margin on 39%, followed by Shane Jones on 18 and Grant on 15%.

We also asked, who would be most likely to beat John Key in a television debate? Again, eligible voters said David Cunliffe was their preferred candidate. He’s sitting there on 36%. Shane Jones on 27% and Grant Robertson on 11%. . .

With some of the candidates promises big infrastructural projects, we asked, who would be most likely to follow through on their promises if they became prime minister? David Cunliffe just pipping Grant Robertson to the post there on 25%, Grant Robertson 24 and Shane Jones on 17%.

But when asked, which candidate best identifies with the average New Zealand voter, Shane Jones is leading the way. He’s sitting there on 31%, followed by David Cunliffe on 29 and Grant Robertson on 19%.

And in our last question – who would inspire the most people to get out and vote on election day? Again, the winner – David Cunliffe, 33% of the vote. Shane Jones sitting there at second again on 30% of the vote, and Grant Robertson on 17%. . .

There is no way of knowing how many of those polled are eligible to vote but this is the second poll in a week to favour Cunliffe and put Robertson last.

Those who can vote might take this into account, especially when thinking about who would be best to get out the vote and identify with the average New Zealander.

However, if Cunliffe is the answer to either of those questions, I’m definitely not the average voter.


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