This doesn’t mean Maori are over-represented

December 10, 2013

Kiwiblog makes an interesting observation on the make-up of parliament:

Incidentally with Williams and Hayes both replacing non-Maori MPs, the number of MPs in Parliament of Maori descent is a record 25 out of 121, or 21% of Parliament. That is a significant over-representation. The makeup of the Maori MPs in Parliament is:

  • Maori seats 7
  • General seats 6
  • List seats 12

Very very hard to claim you need the Maori seats to continue, to maintain effective Maori representation in Parliament.

The breakdown of the 25 Maori MPs is also interesting:

  • National 9
  • Labour 7
  • Greens 3
  • Maori 3
  • NZ First 1
  • Mana 1
  • Independent 1

That might be over-representation as a percentage.

It doesn’t mean Maori are over-represented.

As Te Ururoa Flavell pointed out most Maori seats are too big which makes effective representation much more difficult.

The solution isn’t more Maori seats, it’s getting rid of them.

That would add another general seat in the South Island and several in the North, all of which would be smaller and easier to service than the biggest electorates are now.

The Royal Commission which designed MMP said there would be no need for Maori seats under this voting system.

That the majority of Maori MPs hold general or list seats proves that.


Want to bet on chances of a prosecution?

December 5, 2013

The Electoral Commission has referred Labour leader David Cunliffe to the police over the tweet he sent on the morning of the Christchurch East by-election urging people to vote for Labour candidate Poto Williams.

It is the Electoral Commission’s view that the statement constituted a breach of section 197(1)(g)(i) of the Electoral Act 1993 because it was a statement published on polling day advising, or intended, or likely to influence electors as to the candidate for whom they should or should not vote in the by-election.

Does anyone want to bet on the chances of a prosecution resulting from the referral?

If the number of prosecutions made on electoral matters in recent years is anything to go by the odds would be very long.

Cunliffe issued a brief media statement:

Labour has today been advised the Electoral Commission has referred a tweet I made on Saturday to the Police, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says.

“I understand this is a routine part of the Commission’s process.

“I will be co-operating fully with any inquiry and won’t be making any further statement on this matter as it is now part of a formal process,” David Cunliffe says.

No mention there of him standing down as he has called for other MPs who have been referred to the police to do.

As a tweeter remarked:

Now that @DavidCunliffeMP has been referred to the Police, when is @DavidCunliffeMP going to demand that he be stood down from office

 


Apathy was the winner

November 30, 2013

Apathy was the winner in the Christchurch east by-election.

Voter turnout  is estimated to be 41.4% of the 33,555 people enrolled.

Given Labour has always held the seat theirs no surprise in its candidate Poto Williams keeping it for the party.

Preliminary results are:

BAKER, Leighton Conservative Party   487
DOOCEY, Matthew National Party    3,506
GASKIN, Ian Independent   19
HOLLAND, Adam Independent   31
LAMBERT, Paula Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party  56
LICHTWARK, Jenner Democrats for Social Credit  20
MOORHOUSE, David Green Party  926
PARK, Sam Independent   75
VEALE, Gareth ACT New Zealand   56
WILLIAMS, Poto Labour Party 8,119
Candidate Informals  23
TOTAL  13,318

Labour’s seat to lose

November 27, 2013

Labour leader David Cunliffe reckons the Christchurch East seat is National’s to lose.

So despite Dalziel’s solid 5334 majority in 2011, Cunliffe has been talking up National’s equally emphatic victory in the party vote in 2011, by 13,252 (46 per cent) to 9100 for Labour (31.65 per cent).

Labour’s “key message” is that the seat is National’s to lose.

For Cunliffe “any old win would do”, he said yesterday.

“I would say 50 per cent would be great.”

He is adamant the party vote is the best measure of “underlying party allegiance” available.

But this isn’t a general election where people get two votes. It’s a by-election for a seat Labour has held for decades.

No-one would expect a new candidate to get the support Dalziel built up over several terms as the local MP,even though, contrary to her assertion she would be an independent mayor, she is helping Poto Williams.

But it would be a serious blow to Labour, its candidate and its leader if National’s Matthew Doocey won the seat.

People in Christchurch East have had more than enough of living with the aftermath of earthquakes, dealing with insurance companies and all the other challenges which make day to day life more difficult. There’s little more the government can do about most of these than it’s already doing but even so, people at the end of their tethers can use their votes to send a message about their frustration.

This all makes the seat Labour’s to lose and it’s Cunliffe’s to lose too.

He hasn’t made much progress in the polls since becoming leader and anything but an emphatic win for his candidate, chosen over those supported by the locals, will be a big blow for him.


10 candidates for Chch east by-election

November 5, 2013

The Electoral commission has released the names of the 10 candidates for the Christchurch East by-election:

Candidate Name Party
BAKER, Leighton Conservative Party
DOOCEY, Matthew National Party
GASKIN, Ian Independent
HOLLAND, Adam Independent
LAMBERT, Paula Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party
LICHTWARK, Jenner Democrats for Social Credit
MOORHOUSE, David Green Party
PARK, Sam Independent
VEALE, Gareth ACT Party
WILLIAMS, Poto Labour Party

Keeping Stock has found Labour has been a mite premature about the outcome:

This is a red seat and the odds favour Williams but it is good manners to wait until the voters cast their ballots before claiming to be an MP.

#gigatownoamaru is taking nothing for granted in the race to become the Southern Hemisphere’s fastest town.


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