People calling on the government to do something about the exchange rate only look at only the benefits, without acknowledging the costs.
But as Economic Minister Steven Joyce explains we can’t have one exchange rate for what we sell and another for what we buy:
A lot of exporters – I mean every exporter let’s face it, likes a lower dollar. What they would love really is to have a lower dollar which they’d sell stuff, cos they’d sell their stuff for more, and they’d like a higher dollar for the stuff they buy. They’d like two exchange rates. And I understand that, cos I’ve been involved in an export industry myself, and you’d always love two exchange rates. Unfortunately the world only gives you one, that’s right. So their input costs are significantly lower. So if you take oil and gas and a lot of those things that come in on world prices, the input costs are lower. And yes it’s more challenging with some of the export costs or the sales costs, sales revenues that you get, but it is a mixed story. A lot of manufacturers are doing very well, some struggling, particularly the more commodity based ones. . . .
There is no question exporters would get better returns if the dollar was lower but everyone would also face higher costs for everything we import. That’s not just luxuries like electronic toys, it’s necessities including fuel, machinery, medicines and medical equipment and a lot of food.
. . . Well fundamentally the real opportunity at the moment, and everybody knows this, is that it’s the Australian dollar, and we’re currently at quite low levels against the Australian dollar, about 78 cents, and you can’t have things changed, different exchange rates for different countries as we know. If we went down further against the Australian currency, which is what for example Mr Wally recommends. He suggests that there should be a 20% devaluation in the New Zealand dollar, 25% I think he’s looking for, but that would put us at 58 cents Australian which is just ridiculous. And also it would put us against about 60 cents US, which people would say well that’d be nice. But then of course you’d actually be talking about very substantial rises in living costs for New Zealanders. So unfortunately you only have one exchange rate. The exchange rate is the assessment of what people things of the future of the New Zealand economy. The quickest way to get it down would be to do some very reckless things that would actually put our economy at risk.
The interviewer, Rachel Smalley then asked him about Winston Peters’ Reserve Bank Amendment Bill.
StevenWell with the greatest respect to Winston, he’s been around for 27 or 30 years. . . . he’s never come up with a solution. If there’s a problem in this country he’s part of it, because he’s been around for such a long time. He had a time as Treasurer and never promoted these views as Treasurer, so now because he’s worried, and because he’s rightly worried about you know the big commodity manufacturers, and I am too, he’s promoting a snake oil solution that would achieve nothing. Because here’s the deal…
RachelOkay, his Amendment Act does have the support though in part, in general by David Parker, the Labour Finance Minister.
StevenWell I’m sorry that gives me no comfort whatsoever.
RachelHe says we face competitive devaluation abroad and we ignore it at our peril.
Steven Well I’m sorry, it’s truly ludicrous, and fundamentally it is a snake oil salesman solution, and Parker was called on the left this week by his own supporters on the left, who said what he’s arguing for, is he’s sitting in front of exporters and saying I want to make life easier for you, and then he’s turning around to New Zealanders and saying it will have no impact on you. And fundamentally that is not the case, it’s dishonest and you can’t say it.
The dollar’s value is making business harder for exporters but the snake oil Peters and Parker are trying to sell would make life much more difficult for everyone – unless they can find a way to have two exchange rates.