iPredict shows a surge of support for Act after the change of leadership.
Its forecast share of the party vote has more than doubled – up from 3.1% to 7%.
Not surprisingly some of that support has come from people who had supported National which has gone down from 47.5% to 46%.
Forecast vote shares are now: National 46.0% (down from 47.5% last week and 48.0% the week before), Labour 29.3% (up from 28.9% last week), Act 7.0% (up from 3.1% last week), the Greens 6.9% (up from 6.5% last week), New Zealand First 4.8% (up from 4.2% last week), UnitedFuture 1.6% (steady), the Maori Party 1.5% (steady), the Mana Party 1.3% (up from 1.1% last week), the New Citizen Party 0.7% (steady) and the proposed Reform New Zealand Party 0.6% (up from 0.4% last week).
Based on this data, and the electorate results above, Parliament would be as follows: National 59 MPs (down from 62 last week), Labour 37 MPs (down from 38 last week), Act 9 MPs (up from none last week), the Greens 9 MPs (up from 8 last week), the Maori Party 3 MPs (steady), UnitedFuture 2 MPs (steady) and the Mana Party 2 MPs (up from 1 last week). There would be 121 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply, so that Mr Key’s National Party could govern with the support of one of the Act, Maori or UnitedFuture parties. There would be no politically plausible combination that would allow Labour to govern.
That last sentence is worth repeating: There would be no politically plausible combination that would allow Labour to govern.
Even if New Zealand First reached 5% that wouldn’t change. If all other party votes were constant:
Parliament would be as follows: National 56 MPs, Labour 36 MPs, Act 8 MPs, the Greens 8 MPs, New Zealand First 6 MPs, the Maori Party 3 MPs, UnitedFuture 2 MPs and the Mana Party 2 MPs. There would be 121 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply. There would continue to be no politically plausible combination that would allow Labour to govern, but the National Party would have a number of options including governing with Act alone, governing with both the Maori and UnitedFuture parties but not Act, governing with all three of these current support parties, or governing with New Zealand First despite Mr Key’s pledge not to do so.
Overall, the market continues to indicate an 86% probability there will be a National Prime Minister after the election (steady compared with the last two weeks).
There is absolutely no question of John Key going back on his decision not to entertain Winston Peters as a coaltion partner. On these figures that means even if his party got into parliament it wouldn’t be in government.
However, this is a predictions market not a survey and a little more than a week ago iPredict was forecasting that Brash’s attempt to takeover the Act leadership would fail.
A lot has happened since then and there’s more than six months to go to the election in which we can expect a lot more to happen which could influence voters.