Politics Daily

June 3, 2014

New Zealand Politics Daily is taking  a break.

I don’t have the time or inclination to provide the same service of a reasonably comprehensive list of links to news stories and blog posts on issues of the day.

However, I’m willing to start with a few and invite anyone who has read anything I’ve missed to add a link to it in a comment.

I won’t pretend to be balanced – there will be more links to blogs of a bluer hue. Anyone who wants the red and green end of the spectrum better represented is welcome to leave links.

John Key in Samoa

BeehiveNZ to invest $1 million into Samoa’s tourism sector:

Prime Minister John Key has today announced New Zealand will invest $1 million to help boost Samoa’s tourism sector. . .

Tova O’Brien - Pacific voters warming to National:

With large sections of New Zealand’s Pacific Island community now gravitating towards National, the battle for the Pacific vote has gone offshore. . . .

Immigration

David Farrar @ Kiwiblog – So what will Labour cut?

is claiming that it will cut migrant numbers by somewhere between 20,000 and 35,000 to get net migration from 40,000 to somewhere between 5,000 and 20,000. . .

Pete George @ Your NZ – Cunliffe still vague on immigration:

Cunliffe was interviewed about immigration on Q & A on Sunday. . .

Housing

Hannah McLeod @ Southland times - State house sales reap $4m:

Millions of dollars from state housing sales in the south could be going towards new homes in Auckland. . .

Catherine Harris @ Stuff – ‘Holistic’ plan for housing sought:

New Zealand needs a wider discussion about housing affordability and the issues that surround it such as migration, say senior figures in local government. . .

RadioNZ – Fast-track housing plan for Taruanga:

Tauranga City Council wants special rules to speed up housing developments.

 Labour Party

Andrea Vance @  Stuff – Labour MPs not happy with Mana Internet:

Senior Labour Party MPs have used social media to attack the alliance struck between Mana and the Internet Party. . .

Inventory 2 @ Keeping Stock – White-anting in Labour? Surely not…:

Is David Cunliffe being white-anted again? You’d have to wonder after reading Andrea Vance’s story on Stuff: . . .

Cameron Slater @ Whale Oil – Things are falling apart in Labour:

When something happens that isn’t going the way a political party particularly wants, they need to get together, work out a strategy, and communicate that coherently. . . .

 Isaac Davison @ NZ Herald –   Labour looks at changing $10m-for-residency scheme:

Labour is looking “very closely” at changing the rules for foreign investors who can get residency in New Zealand by paying $10 million. . .

IMP

Chris Keall @ NBR – Laila Harre NBR interview part 2: Baboom offshoring jobs; getting paid; the UFB; how she rolls:

Chris Keall – Where’s all the Baboom development taking place? . . .

Cameron Slater @ whale Oil – Internet Mana Party “a joke from the far left” – Key:

Unlike our media, John Key is refusing to take the Internet Mana Party seriously. . .

Josie Pagani @ Pundit – Say no to the cup of Te:

No way should Labour do a ‘Cup of Te’ deal.

Labour should stand up for its own strong values. . .

Danyl Mclauchlan @ Dim Post – On the logic behind a strategic loss:

Rob Salmond makes fun of Bomber, which is something we can all enjoy. But I do think that Bomber’s theory that a faction within the Labour Party would prefer a National victory in 2014 if the alternative is a Labour/Greens/New Zeland First/Mana/Internet Party government is pretty plausible. . .

Q & A @ TVNZ –  Laila Harre   interviewed by Susan Wood:

SUSAN: Long time unionist and left wing politician Laila Harre is back, she’s been a member of Labour, New Labour, Alliance, and the Greens, and now she’s taking the helm of the Internet Party, she joins me now good morning. Most political parties are built on something positive, on a movement, on beliefs. How can the Internet Mana Party which is built on yes, wanting to change a government, but an almost pathological dislike of the Prime Minister work? How can it be a force for good? . . .

Carbon Tax

Andrew McMartin @ TV3 – Carbon tax means nothing without Labour – English:

The Green Party’s carbon tax policy “means nothing” without Labour support, Finance Minister Bill English says. . . .

Peter Cresswell @ Not PC – The Greens cutting taxes?

Let’s start with the good news. . .

Lindsay Mitchell – Support for the Greens carbon tax surprises:

The Taxpayer’s Union has come out in support of a carbon tax that is revenue neutral. On balance they find it preferable to the Emissions Trading Scheme.

I wonder why we need either. . . .

Mark Hubbard @ Life Behind the Iron Drape - Green Naivety: Carbon Tax:

Julie Anne Genter is a New Zealand Green MP, and promoting the NZ Green Party policy this election year of a carbon tax, including on agriculture – dairy, initially, with other livestock to follow presumably. . .

Election

Rob Hosking @ NBR – Election 2014 – The Minors’ Strike:

The Green party must be quite relieved its conference was this weekend . . .

Scoop – Northland Leader Backs Kelvin Davis in Te Tai Tokerau:

Northland Kaumatua Rudy Taylor says Labour MP Kelvin Davis has the heart and the mana along with total support to win the seat of Te Tai Tokerau in the upcoming general election. . .

Scott Yorke @ Imperator Fish – How to win an election:

It’s all about the party vote. Electorate contests can be distracting, because in most cases they will be irrelevant to the result. A few electorate results will be critical, but only where they would allow a minor party to enter Parliament. . .

Scoop - iPredict Ltd 2014 Election Update #19: 30 May 2014:

Key Points:
• Internet Mana forecast to win 3 seats
• National expected to sneak in with minor parties’ support . . .

Christchurch

Beehive - Vodafone to anchor Innovation Precinct:

Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee and Science and Innovation Minister Steven Joyce today released the spatial framework for the Christchurch Innovation Precinct and announced that Vodafone’s new South Island headquarters will anchor the precinct. . .

The Christchurch Innovation Precinct will bring together some of our most innovative people to help create an exciting and vibrant future for Christchurch. http://ntnl.org.nz/1oq447h

Education

Beehive – Budget 2014: $28.6m investment in ICT Grad Schools:

The Government will invest $28.6 million operating funding (including $11.8 million of contingencies) over the next four years in three Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Graduate Schools to help address significant high-level skills shortages in the rapidly growing ICT industry, Tertiary Education, Skills and Employment Minister Steven Joyce says. . . .

Beehive – $359m boost for student achievement moves forward:

Education Minister Hekia Parata has welcomed advice from sector leaders on the Government’s $359 million initiative to raise student achievement, saying it maintains momentum and strengthens the path forward. . .

Other

Trans Tasman – Trans Tasman Announces Government Department and Government Department CEO of The Year:

Trans Tasman’s 5th Annual Briefing Report – New Zealand Government Departments People and Policy, 2014 Edition , has announced its top performing Government Department of the Year and the best Government Department CEO. The pair is chosen by a 16 strong Independent Board of Advisers . .

Hamish Rutherford @ Reserve Bank governor named top chief executive:

A former top international banker, who stared down the Beehive with lending restrictions and official cash rates rises months from the election, is this year’s public sector chief executive of the year.  . .

Matthew Beveridge – Green Party AGM:

Queen’s Birthday Weekend was also the weekend the Green Party held their annual conference. As one would expect, there were a number of policy announcements, free doctors visits for up to 18 year olds and a change from the ETS to a Carbon Tax system. . .

Bob Jones @ NZ Herald - A message to screaming John Minto: Shut up:

If Parliament proposed a nationwide synchronisation of clocks and watches, then at a given date and time, invited everyone who’s had an absolute gutsful of the screaming skull, otherwise known as John Minto, to go outside and jump up and down for two minutes, imagine the reaction. . .

Lindsay Mitchell – More welfare changes on the way:

The government has announced a rewrite of the Social Security 1964 Act, which is a massive maze of dated legislation. . . .

Cameron Slater @ Whale Oil – Political porkies:

It seems the minor parties are able to get away with making stuff up, or flat out lying.

As a new service we will now start calling out these ratbags. . . .

David Farrar @ Kiwiblog – The new blockbuster:

It’s a poster of Dr No, you’ll have to pop over to see it.

Adam Bennett @ NZ Herald – Peters rubbishes claim he paid Harawira’s protest fine:

Current and former MPs and “ordinary people” banded together to pay the $632 fine Hone Harawira received last year for defying police at a 2012 Auckland housing protest. . 

Inventory 2 @ Keeping Stock – Pay your own fine Hone:

Hone Harawira is in trouble over trouble he was in last year. If that sounds confusing, hopefully the Herald will explain: . . .

NBR – Labour might revisit MMP’s ‘coat-tail’ provisions if elected — Cunliffe:

David Cunliffe says Labour may revisit MMP’s “coat-tail” provisions if elected . . .


Sept 20 election?

March 10, 2014

Ipredict has  a 95% probability of  a September 20 election.

I have no inside knowledge on this, but the sooner, the better for me.


iPredict approves of Act changes

February 7, 2014

Investors in iPredict have given a vote of confidence to Act’s new leaderhshp:

The probability National will lead the next government after this year’s election – now likely to be in October – has passed 60% for the first time. The Act Party has gained at the expense of the Conservatives while John Key’s other support parties, UnitedFuture and the Maori Party, have improved their prospects of returning to parliament, as has Mana. . .

A party vote turnout of 77.2% continues to be expected compared with 74.2% in 2011.

There have been small changes in forecast party vote shares over the last week. Of the major parties, National is expected to win 42.26% of the party vote (down from 43.06% last week), Labour 32.94% (down from 33.17%) and the Green Party 9.42% (down from 9.59%).

No other parties are expected to reach the 5% threshold under the MMP electoral system. NZ First is expected to win 4.73% of the party vote (compared with 4.40% last week), the ConservativeParty 4.14% (down from 4.40%), Act 2.46% (up from 1.70%), the Maori Party 1.28% (down from 1.30%), the Internet Party 1.28%, Mana 0.49% (down from 0.60%), UnitedFuture 0.49% (down from 0.60%), the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.30% (down from 0.40%), the Civilian Party 0.1% and Democrats for Social Credit 0.1%.

This isn’t an opinion poll but even so I’m not sure why Act, a supposedly liberal party, should gain at the expense of a party Conservative in name and by nature.


iPredict – narrow Nat win

January 15, 2014

iPredict’s first update for the year is predicting a very narrow win for the incumbent government.

Key Points:

•       Election expected in Q4 2014, most probably in November
•       Growing economy expected, but with rising interest rates
•       Only National, Labour and Greens to reach 5% threshold
•       Maori, Conservative, Mana and UnitedFuture parties to win electorate seats but Act to miss out
•       Very slight advantage to John Key as head of a National/Conservative/UnitedFuture government

Commentary:

This is the first iPredict Update for the 2014 New Zealand General Election with forecasts based on trading by the more than 7000 registered iPredict traders.  As in 2011, the newsletter will be based on a market snapshot taken at a random time, initially weekly and then daily during the election campaign.

The first snapshot, which was taken at 9.32 am today, suggests a very slight advantage to incumbent prime minister John Key, most probably leading a National/Conservative/UnitedFuture government, with or without the Maori Party. . .

Of the major parties, National is expected to win 43.0% of the party vote, the Labour Party 34.5% and the Green Party 9.5%.  

No other parties are expected to reach the 5% threshold under the MMP electoral system.  The Conservative and NZ First parties are both expected to win 4.6% of the party vote, the Maori Party 1.5%, Act 1.3%, Mana 0.7%, UnitedFuture 0.6% and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.3%.  

Stocks for the proposed Civilian and Kim Dotcom parties will be launched in the near future.

Based on the party vote forecasts and the electorate results above, Parliament would be as follows: National 54 MPs, Labour 44 MPs, Greens 12 MPs, the Conservative Party 6 MPs, the Maori Party 2 MPs, UnitedFuture 1 MPs and Mana 1 MP, for a total of 120 MPs.  A government would be required to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply.

Under this scenario, National, the Conservative Party and UnitedFuture could form a government with 61 MPs.  Were the Maori Party involved, such a government would be supported by 63 MPs.

Were the Conservative Party not to win an electorate seat, a Labour/Green/Maori Party/Mana government could be formed with 62 MPs.

Overall, the market indicates a very narrow advantage to National, with a 53.3% probability of a National prime minister after the next election and a 45.1% probability of a Labour prime minister. . .

I’d call that too close to call which is what most polls have been saying.

 


One fall does not a winter make

April 19, 2012

People wagering on iPredict are putting their money on a fall in Fonterra payouts for this season and the next one.

Forecasts for Fonterra’s 2011/12 and 2012/13 payouts have fallen following last night’s 10% plunge in prices on the company’s global dairy auction system.

According to the 6000 registered traders on New Zealand’s online predictions market, iPredict, the 2011/12 payout per kilogram of milk solids (before retentions) is now likely to be $674, down $0.07 from the $6.81 forecast when iPredict last reported on Monday.

The 2012/13 payout forecast has been harder hit, and is now just $6.14, down $0.35 or 5.4% from the $6.49 forecast on Monday.

Federated Farmers is also warning of a possible drop in the forecast price for next season:

World wide demand for milk products remains steady despite a 9.9 percent price index fall on the GlobalDairyTrade online market. Federated Farmers agrees with Fonterra this reflects the current abundance of milk being produced around the world.

“Almost ideal growing conditions around most of New Zealand this season has seen a record amount of milk production and a corresponding increase in products on the market platform,” Federated Farmers dairy chairperson Willy Leferink says.

“There is also more milk coming from the United States and Europe at the moment, meaning there is an abundance of milk products going through GlobalDairyTrade.

“This month alone there has been a 10 percent increase in volumes on the platform, so a price drop was not unexpected.

We will have to watch what happens over the next few months, but with Fonterra already having revised down it’s payout by 45 cents to $6.30 per kg of milk solids, New Zealand dairy farmers should begin preparing for a potentially lower milk price forecast for the 2012-13 season.

“However, the price of whole milk powder indicated by GlobalDairyTrade represents just one day on the market.

“This is a volatile market with many factors influencing it. One thing which could have a big effect on global dairy production over coming months is the very strong beef prices at the moment, which could sway production towards the meat rather than the dairy side of the equation.

“New Zealand’s dairy industry is very resilient and used dealing with small downturns while looking to the long term picture, which is very rosy indeed,” Mr Leferink concluded.

One price fall, even a 9.9% one, doesn’t mean we’re in for wintery market conditions, but it does show the need for caution with budgeting for the coming season.

It might also have a moderating influence on price rises for land, wages, supplies and services.

 

 


Will he, won’t he

December 14, 2011

Quote of the day:

There are two very different theories on how Peters will conduct himself in the coming Parliament.

One is that he will spend the next three years rebuilding his somewhat tarnished reputation and seek to become the feisty elder statesman.

The other is that he will come out with all guns blazing seeking vengeance on those who he believes did him wrong. . .

. . . His performance in Parliament will be interesting.

Peters was a master of the use/misuse of Standing Orders (the rules of Parliament) to make has mark and in particular using points of order to make political points.

Those rules have changed a great deal in Peters three year absence, as has Lockwood Smith’s interpretation of them.

It is unlikely that Peters will agree with the changes and it is hard to imagine him keeping his displeasure to himself. Ian Llewellyn

Will he act with reason and decorum or won’t he?

Or should the question be not if he’ll act true to form but when?

Punters at iPredict reckon there’s a 52% probability Lockwood Smith or another presiding officer will throw Winston Peters out of the House of Representatives by 17 March 2012 and a 69% probability Mr Peters will be ordered to leave the House of Representatives by 31 March 2012


New leader for how long?

December 1, 2011

As the three Davids and assorted hangers-on strive to lead the Labour Party, iPredict suggests the winner might not get the ultimate prize:

After last night’s TVNZ debate, David Cunliffe is now favoured to be the next leader of the Labour Party, with 42% probability, followed by David Shearer and David Parker who are both on 31% probability. 

But, while iPredict also gives Labour a slightly better chance of winning the next election (53% probability), Cunliffe isn’t the favourite to be Prime Minister:

David Shearer has a 23% probability of being Prime Minister by 1 January 2015, compared with Bill English (14%), David Cunliffe (13%) and David Parker  (7%).

Labour’s leadership is only one of its problems.

Changing leaders won’t by itself solve the rest. It’s possible whoever wins this leadership battle could be a casualty of the inevitable fallout from the hard decisions that need to be taken and won’t be leader long enough to become Prime Minister.


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