Hone hasn’t learned

08/12/2014

Those who don’t learn from their mistakes are doomed to repeat them:

The Mana Movement is planning for the 2017 election and Kim Dotcom could be involved, leader Hone Harawira says.

Mr Harawira lost his Te Tai Tokerau seat to Labour’s Kelvin Davis and Mana’s alliance with the Dotcom backed Internet Party only gained 1.26 percent of the party vote in September’s election. . .

The election result gave me faith in democracy and one of the best illustrations of that was voters in Te Tai Tokerau who voted Davis in as their MP.

By doing so they saved us all from the electoral rort that Harawira, Dot Com, Laila Harre and their fellow travellers tried to inflict on us with their unholy and hypocritical alliance under the Internet Mana Party banner.

Harawira’s willingness to work with Dotcom again shows he doesn’t understand that.

He will find it much harder to campaign without the salary and allowances he had as an MP and party leader in parliament.

He’ll be further handicapping himself if he enlists Dotcom’s help again.


Election results

20/09/2014

It’s 7pm, polling booths have closed.

Counting of advance votes started at 2pm and should be announced by 8:30.

My predictions (%):

National 48ish

Labour 22ish

Green Party 12ish

NZ First 5ish

Conservative Party 4ish

Maori Party 2ish

Act 2ish

IMP 1ish

United Future .5ish

Official results can be found here.

Predicted results from the Election Data Consortium are here.


Moment of strewth sinks IMP?

19/09/2014

Kim Dotcom’s moment of truth turned into a moment of strewth, is that all there is?

Rather than sinking Prime Minister and the National Party as he had hoped, the Herald DigiPoll showed it did the opposite:

The Kim Dotcom-inspired event in Auckland’s Town Hall that was supposed to end John Key’s career gave the National Party an immediate bounce in support this week, according to polling for the last Herald DigiPoll survey.

With 60 per cent of the poll done by Monday night, when the event happened, National was polling at 47.8 per cent, down on last week, said DigiPoll general manager Nandan Modak. From Tuesday it jumped to 49.1 per cent.

A similar trend was seen in the preferred Prime Minister polling. Before Monday, Mr Key was polling at 63.4 per cent. From Tuesday it jumped to 66.4 per cent.

Mr Key who has led a minority National Government for six years is seeking a third term in tomorrow’s election against a Labour Party that has been led for only a year by David Cunliffe.

Mr Key told the Herald last night the results on Saturday “may well prove that a campaign led by Kim Dotcom based mostly on revenge will serve to only reduce the likelihood of a change of Government”.

While the moment of strewth helped National, it harmed Dotcom’s puppet party and might even be enough to sink it:

Today’s poll also has the internet-Mana strategic alliance funded by Mr Dotcom sinking. It would get no extra MPs into Parliament on the coat-tails of Mana leader Hone Harawira keeping his Te Tai Tokerau seat – and even that is looking shaky.

Mr Dotcom has spent $4 million on setting up the party and funding the campaign.

The poll has the Conservatives on 3.3 per cent, and would not be in Parliament. It has yet to register over the 5 per cent threshold on any major political poll this election.

Today’s poll has National on 48.2 per cent, down a little from last week when the seven-day polling is totalled.. .

This is only one poll and it shows the race is still tight.

The Stuff/Ipsos shows an even tighter race:

Today’s Stuff.co.nz/Ipsos poll is almost a photo finish of the 2011 election result, which delivered a National government with a slender majority despite John Key’s near record popularity.

Click here to see full results

On today’s numbers, National is as popular as ever and would be back in business at the Beehive on Monday with a government that looks almost exactly like the last one.

But a turbulent few weeks on the campaign trail have made the result less certain and the electorate more volatile. The poll registers a big swing against National which, if carried through to tomorrow, could make the race much tighter.

So too could any stumble by John Key’s allies in the Maori seats or Ohariu, which would see the Maori Party and Peter Dunne out of Parliament.

The bad news for Labour is that the swing has mostly benefited NZ First and Colin Craig’s Conservatives, who have been jockeying for position in the Centre.

National blames that on strategic voting by its supporters wanting to get Conservatives over the line to give National coalition options. But NZ First may be just as likely picking up disaffected Labour voters. . .

This poll shows National on 47.7%; Labour on 26.1%; the Green Party on 12%; New Zealand First on 6.6%; Conservative party on 4.5% and Internet Mana on just .9%.

If this level of support carries through to the election we could still have a strong, stable National-led government.

But even a small swing away from National could leave us saddled with a weak Labour-led government cobbled together with the support of the Green and New Zealand First parties and whoever manages to get across the line with Internet Mana.

National has never taken the election result for granted and these polls will ensure that candidates and volunteers the length and breadth of the country will be continuing to work hard to ensure that when the polls close tomorrow they’ve done all they can to convince enough voters of the importance of keeping the government that’s working for New Zealand.

Whether that’s enough, won’t be known until the counting’s done.


Win for Cunliffe, win for Dotcom

17/09/2014

Kim Dotcom threatened to bring down John Key and National.

His moment of truth turned into a moment of strewth, is that all there is?

The email on which he was depending to prove John Key a liar is a fake.

That ought to be the end of it, but it won’t be if Labour is in a position to form a government because in spite of Cunliffe’s yeah-nahing about working with Dotcom’s puppets in Internet Mana, he would if it meant he could be Prime Minister.

He has a chance to ensure IMP doesn’t get anywhere by firmly ruling out any post-election deal with it.

Instead of this he’s wishy-washy:

. . . Mr Cunliffe says he’s not particularly concerned if Mr Harawira loses and Labour is without a potential support partner.

Not particularly concerned? If he had the best interests of New Zealand and New Zealanders at heart he would be absolutely unequivocal that he’d be delighted if that happened.

“I want to see Kelvin Davis as the MP for Te Tai Tokerau,” he told reporters in Hamilton.

Mr Cunliffe has ruled Internet Mana out of a Labour-led government, but the door is still open for a confidence and supply agreement.

If he really wanted to see Davis as the MP for Te Tai Tokerau he’d make it quite clear that he was ruling IMP out completely.

He’s not prepared to do that which means a vote for Labour would also be a vote for Dotcom pulling the strings of MPs supporting it in government.

A win for Cunliffe would be a win for Dotcom.

The only way to rule out Dotcom is to rule out a Labour-led government.

The only way to do that is to give your party vote to National.

 


Foulers cry foul

14/09/2014

Internet Mana  is complaining about Prime Minister John Key’s decision to declassify documents which will prove accusations against him are baseless.

. . .In a joint statement, Mr Harawira and Ms Harre say the reported intention of the Prime Minister “to arrange the selective declassification and release of documents for his own political purposes” represents an abuse of the Prime Minister’s authority in his capacity as the Minister in charge of the GCSB and the SIS. . .

If the PM didn’t release documents they’d accuse him of hiding something but when he says he will release documents they’re still complaining.

This is a case of the foulers crying foul.

They’re the ones who’ve allowed themselves to be bought by Kim Dotcom who is doing his best to interfere in the election.

The PM not only has the right to release this he has a duty.

This isn’t just about him. It’s about New Zealand, New Zealanders and our security.

Those who don’t understand that should read Charles Finny’s excellent guest post at Kiwiblog:

. . .  The Labour Government that saw us through World War II, and those from 1957-60, 1972-75, 1984-90 and 1999-2008 have not sought to change our position in “five eyes” because the leaders and senior Ministers of those Governments have realized how lucky we are to be part of this agreement and knew how fundamental the intelligence derived from it was to the security of New Zealand.  Ultimately the most important function of government is to protect the people.  “Five eyes” plays a very important role in our ongoing security.  There was a wobble under Lange which saw New Zealand denied access to some processed intelligence from the US, but access to the raw communications intercepted by the four allies continued throughout.  Under Helen Clark the full flow of processed intelligence resumed.

I cannot believe what I have just heard saying about today.  What we now call is as much a creation of Labour as it is the National Party.  It is crucial to our continuing security.  It protects us against the hostile actions of foreign governments, terrorist organizations, and international criminals.  Of course the same foreign governments, terrorist organizations and criminals hate the ‘’fives eyes agreement” and want it dismantled because it stands in their way.  I can’t believe that a Labour Leader would align himself with these forces and put this agreement and our position in it so much at risk.  If his senior colleagues do not call Cunliffe on this, shame on them too.  Our national security is too important to be put at risk by short term political opportunism.

Even when Helen Clark thought we lived in a benign strategic environment her government didn’t short-change  or subvert our security the way the left is now attempting to.

 

 


Who loses from non-voters?

12/09/2014

The common perception that centre-left parties like Labour and the Greens are hit much harder than National when their supporters do not turn up to vote does not hold up in light of polling analysis released today by the Election Data Consortium.

The Consortium is made up of polling company Roy Morgan and data analytics company Qrious. The analysis shows 36 percent of those aged between 18 and 24 who are enrolled but state they are unlikely to vote, indicated they preferred National. In comparison, younger non-voters indicated 39 percent of them preferred Labour and 19 percent supported the Greens.

“This is lower than National’s general polling support across all age groups but higher than many people probably believe the party receives from this block of potential voters,” says Qrious spokesman Cyrus Facciano.

“The rule-of-thumb is that lower turnout by young voters is automatically bad for the centre-left. That is true to some extent – but it is nowhere near the election-turning block of votes that some make it out to be.”

nonvote

The pattern is similar across other ages, though these groups are more likely to vote than younger people. In the 35 to 49 age group, 39 percent of non-voters said they preferred National. . .

 

This is why National candidates and volunteers are putting so much work into letting supporters know the importance of voting.

The election is not a foregone conclusion and people in or leaning towards the blue end of the political spectrum who don’t vote could allow a Labour/Green/NZ First/Internet-Mana coalition into government.


Feed not weed

09/09/2014

Tempers are fraying within the Internet Mana Party:

Emails obtained by 3 News show Mana leader Hone Harawira lashing out over the Internet Party’s pro-cannabis policy with one of his trademark expletive-laden rants, blocking an advertising campaign and saying he is “sick of all this s**t about weed”.

The ad includes a pitch to decriminalise cannabis with the words “police no longer wasted on weed”.

Mr Harawira has said he does not support cannabis for personal use, however the Internet Party wants to see it decriminalised.

When it comes to marijuana the Mana and Internet Party leaders are diametrically opposed. Mr Harawira hates it, but for Internet Party leader Laila Harre, cannabis reform is a personal priority.

She said she has made a personal pledge to champion the issue if she is elected.

An email chain leaked to 3 News shows Mr Harawira’s irate response when the Internet Party sought permission from the leaders to use the cannabis ad.

One of his emails reads: “Why am I seeing all this shit about WEED and so f****n little about FEED as in FEED THE KIDS!!!!!!!!!!!!”

Mr Harawira refused to talk to 3 News, and Ms Harre denied any division.

“We don’t always see eye-to-eye on every issue that’s not an Internet Mana issue; it is par for the course in a campaign,” she said.

In the emails, Mr Harawira has a crack at the Internet Party’s cashed-up campaigns: “Just because it’s keen on the WEED deal and got all the money to spend on all this flash advertising s**t.”

Then in bold letters he writes: “I will NOT be approving this WEED campaign.

“Pull it now or I’ll go public saying how disappointed I am our money’s being spent on WEED not FEED.”

He ends in bold, capitals and a bigger font size: “GET YOUR PRIORITIES RIGHT FOLKS!”

It appears the marriage of convenience is starting to rupture. Mana candidate Georgina Beyer attacked Internet Party founder Kim Dotcom last week, saying he was pulling the strings and was in politics for all the wrong reasons – including revenge. . .

On the cannabis issue, Ms Harre said there really was “no difference of opinion between Hone and I”.

Internet Mana has been denying rifts over cannabis and continues to do so, but the emails show Mr Harawira is clearly furious.

The Internet Party’s stance has been publicly humiliating for him – the fact it wanted to go a step further and advertise just rubs his nose in it.

I wonder how the Internet Mana puppet master Kim Dotcom feels about this email leak?

It’s not just what it says but what the leak says about dissent in the ranks that is telling.

IMP has a self-destruct clause which can be actioned six weeks after the election. The email leaks suggest at least some of the parties to the agreement would be keen to push it sooner.


A little more or a lot less

09/09/2014

National will continue with the economic plan that’s working if voters back it:

A re-elected National Government will return to surplus this financial year and stay there so we can reduce debt, reduce ACC levies on households and businesses and start modestly reducing income taxes, Finance Spokesman Bill English says.

“National’s clear economic plan is working for New Zealand by successfully supporting higher wages and more jobs, and ensuring government spending is invested wisely to deliver better results,” he said when issuing National’s Finance Policy today.

“National is working hard to ensure the economy grows sustainably into the future, supported by more savings, productive investment and exports. This will provide opportunities for Kiwi families to get ahead here in New Zealand.”

As set out in the Budget, a National-led Government will restrict average Budget allowances for discretionary new spending and revenue measures to $1.5 billion a year over the next three years. Within this allowance National will:

• Allow around $1 billion a year for new spending, including between $600 million and $700 million a year more for health and education. This total new spending is consistent with the level of new spending in our last two Budgets and it’s well below the $2 billion to $3 billion spending increases under the last Labour government, which had little to show for them. 


Harden up Hone

08/09/2014

Patrick Gower says Hone Harawira needs to harden up:

Hone needs to stand up and stop the Internet Party from walking all over him on the cannabis issue.

Hone is staunchly anti-weed, but the Internet Party is pro-weed.

And even though Hone is the leader of the Internet Mana merger, he is being forced to adopt the pro-weed position.

As Hone himself would say: “This just ain’t right, folks”.

I actually feel sorry for Hone ending up in this position where he is being forced to buckle on his principles.

I know Hone Harawira well.

He is a man of principle. He stands up for what he believes in. He usually doesn’t back down.

But it seems the anti-weed Hone has been rolled. . .

Kim Dotcom managed to persuade Laila Harre to set aside many of her principles in agreeing to lead his party and now the puppet master is pulling Harawira’s strings over drug policy too.

The string pulling must have been painful because Harawira needed a break to get over it:

Hone Harawira denies any rift with Internet Mana co-leader Laila Harre.

Rather, he says he’s been taking a break at home during the election campaign.

Mr Harawira told The Nation programme today he’d been going “hard out” and had decided to take a break.

He was questioned about why he was the only politician to take a holiday during the election campaign.

“You don’t get a holiday even in the north – I stayed home,” Mr Harawira said. . .

How hard he’s working for his party is up to them and the puppet master who’s funding them.

But this man is also an MP, getting an MP’s salary to work for his constituents.

If he can’t cope with the work the taxpayer funds and campaigning it’s the campaigning that ought to stop, not the job he’s supposed to do to earn his salary.


Stronger voice for Maori with National

08/09/2014

Helen Clark called the Maori Party the last cab off the rank.

That comment soured relationships between Labour and the Maori Party.

John Key recognised the mana of co-leaders Tariana Turia, Pita Sharples and their party by inviting them into coalition in 2008 and 2011 even though he could have governed without them.

Although it voted with  National for confidence and supply the Maori party often voted against it on other legislation and it has said it could support either a National or Labour government.

But David Cunliffe isn’t prepared to offer them that opportunity:

. . . Speaking to Newstalk ZB’s Mike Hosking this morning, Mr Cunliffe said he intended to only include the Green Party and NZ First in any government.

Asked if he was also ruling out the Maori Party, he said he would possibly talk to Maori Party co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell after the election but “I just won’t have them in Government.”

He did not believe Mr Flavell would opt to side with Labour if it was in a kingmaker position, despite Mr Flavell saying they were open to working with either side and would take their lead from what Maori voters wanted.

“People need to know before the election that a vote for the Maori Party is a vote for the National Party.” . . .

This is the man who earlier in the year was doing a Winston Peters in yeah-nahing over whether he’d work with Internet Mana because it was up to voters to decide.

Now he’s ruling out the much more moderate Maori Party.

He’s probably gambling that this will hurt the Maori Party but the message he’s sending Maori is that they’ll have a much stronger voice and more influence with a National-led government.

Tama Iti has already got that message:

. . .  Iti said he had always supported the Maori Party and had decided to stand to boost the party’s support and because he endorsed the work it had done in government.

“Not very long ago I wouldn’t have thought about it but I see there’s more achievement…with National in terms of the treaty settlements so we have come a long way,” he said.

Having a Maori voice in power had led to gains in areas such as health and social services for Maori and it was important for Maori “to be sitting on the table rather than across the road throwing rocks at each other”. . .

Labour took the Maori seats for granted for years and now it’s ruling the Maori party out of any government it would lead.


Whyte warns of Frankenstein monster

07/09/2014

Act leader Jamie Whyte warns the parties of the left, including New Zealand First, could still get enough votes to form a government:

A Frankenstein Labour-Green-Internet-Mana-New Zealand First government may be unthinkable, but it is not impossible.  . .

If ACT succeeds, New Zealand will have three more years of stable center-right government. If we fail, New Zealand faces the prospect of a chaotic left-wing Frankenstein government.

It’s not pretty, but we should look at that monster.

Part of the monster – the crazy tangled mess of hair stitched onto the scalp – is the Internet-Mana party.

This is a party of hard-left socialists – Hone Harawera, Laila Harre, Annette Sykes and John Minto – funded by a convicted fraudster wanted for copyright violation in America.

Their lunatic policies include shutting down all the prisons (perhaps on the suggestion of their fugitive sponsor).

In a televised debate, Hone explained that prisons are unnecessary because if boys are sent on Kapa Haka courses, they commit no crimes.

If only they had Kapa Haka in Germany, Kim Dotcom would not be a wanted man!

As I said to Hone at the time, it’s a very nice idea. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Why don’t you send all the boys for Haka training and then, after the crime rate falls to zero, we will close the prisons. In the meantime, let’s keep them open – just in case you are wrong about the transformative power of Kapa Haka.

It’s not just Internet and Mana together or separately that’s the worry, it’s the puppet master Kim Dotcom who is funding them and pulling their strings.

The Greens are the monster’s face, grinning inanely below its swivel-eyes.

In the nicest possible way, they intend to force everyone to live as the Greens prefer. They will tax the things they don’t like, such dairy farming, and subsidize the things they do like, such as solar panel manufacturers.

The Greens are not so much a political party as a religious movement, worshipping snails and ferns and all that makes up Gaia, except us humans of course.

For the Greens, humans fall into two categories: the helpless, who smart green politicians must save, and the wicked, who smart green politicians must stop.

In virtue, and intellect, Russel Norman and Meteria Turei are so vastly superior to everyone else that it is their moral duty to subjugate us.

The lovely, soft green – with a small g – concern for the environment that many people find appealing camouflages a lot of hard red policies.

The big flabby torso of the monster is the Labour Party.

It was briefly a thing of beauty and strength. We have the Labour government of Roger Douglas and Richard Prebble to thank for the fact that New Zealand is not now a basket-case like Argentina.

But the Labour Party has gone horribly to seed.

Nothing reveals this more clearly than its finance spokesman, David Parker – the man who now occupies the position once held by the great Roger Douglas.

Mr Parker fancies himself the smartest boy in the fourth-form. But he has not even the weakest grip on basic economics.

At the recent Queenstown Chamber of Commerce political debate Mr Parker explained his party’s desire to reduce immigration to New Zealand. He claimed that economic output requires increasingly little labour to produce. So immigrants cause unemployment.

This nonsense has been peddled by economic fools since the invention of the weaving loom. In fact, I imagine it got started when someone first thought of killing animals with a sharp stick instead of bare hands.

For the sake of Mr Parker’s education, here is what really happens when workers become more productive. People produce and consume more.

And not just more of the same, but entirely new things. Even Mr Parker has surely noticed that, over the past 30 years, as worker productivity and the population have both risen, unemployment has not increased.

Instead, we are consuming more than we ever have. And we are consuming better goods and services than ever before.

Everyone, please, get your cell phones out and wave them in the air so that Mr Parker might understand.

That Parker is regarded as one of the more reasonable voices in Labour merely reflects the dearth of talent in its caucus.

Finally, we come to Winton Peters and his New Zealand First, the stumpy little legs of the monster. Little legs that remain idle for 2 years and 10 months out of every three years and then spend two months running around furiously kicking everyone in sight – foreigners, journalists, bankers, you name it: everyone except pensioners.

After all, it’s common sense.

That’s Winston’s slogan: it’s common sense.

I am not sure what “it” refers to but that doesn’t really matter. Because, as my old PhD supervisor used to say, “sense isn’t common”.

And there is no better example of this fact than Winston himself.

Winston’s big economic policy for this election is removing GST from food. That would reduce government revenue by 3 billion dollars.

But Winston has no plan to cut government spending by 3 billion dollars. On the contrary, he plans to increase government spending massively.

Where will he get all the money?

Winston’s answer: by cracking down on tax evasion.

Honestly. He claims that he can raise 7 billion by cracking down on tax evasion.

That’s not sense, common or otherwise. That’s bollocks.

When a politician tells you that he is going to fund his spending promises by cracking down on tax evasion, you know he is either a fool or a charlatan. And Winston ain’t no fool. . .

Labour is also trying convince us it would fund some of its expensive promises by cracking down on tax evasion.

Some people aren’t yet convinced to vote for a National-led government but these are compelling reasons to vote against a Labour-led one.


Poll of polls

06/09/2014

Colin James’ poll of polls:

After this week’s stream of polls, including TV1’s poll published on the evening of September 5, National is back in the box seat with 50.2% on the latest four-poll average.

(Explainer: The POLL of POLLS is an arithmetical average of the four most recent major polls since mid-June from among: TV1 Colmar Brunton, TV3 Reid Research, Fairfax Media-Ipsos, NZ Herald DigiPoll, Roy Morgan New Zealand and UMR Research, which is not published.*)

Labour plunged to a new four-poll average of 25.0%, its lowest since at least 2008 and probably since the mid-1990s.

The Greens slipped to 12.0% as a high rating in a Morgan poll dropped out of the average.

cjpop

National’s lead over Labour and the Greens combined climbed to 13.2%.

The two winners from the dirty politics furore, New Zealand First and the Conservatives, were at 5.6% and 3.3% respectively. Internet Mana was 2.2% and the Maori party was 0.9%. ACT was 0.3% and United Future 0.2%, levels at which David Seymour’s and Peter Dunne’s seats, if they win them would be “overhangs” and push the number of seats in Parliament to 122.

cjpop1

National’s high rating is unlikely to translate into that level of support from voters and it will almost certainly need some coalition partners.

. . . National Party campaign chairman Steven Joyce said the party’s popularity following publication of the Dirty Politics book showed a disconnect between what the public and media focus on.

Mr Joyce told Radio New Zealand’s Morning Report programme that despite strong polling, National was not assuming it would govern alone. National was not expecting the kind of result shown in the polls on election day, and having partnerships with several parties created a stronger more stable Government.

“If you just say you need a particular party to get over the line then obviously that particular party has a lot more leverage over the larger party.

“What we’ve shown in 2008 and 2011 if you have options then you can form good strong stable relationships and nobody gets too carried away.” . .

The stronger National’s vote is the more options it will have and the less it can be held hostage to minor players.

Labour is so weak it will be in a very poor bargaining position which would enable potential coalition partners to extract far more concessions in exchange for their support.

Its support could keep dropping if people decide it won’t be able to lead the next government or would have to give away too much to the wee players to enable it to govern .


Only party vote for National will stop him

03/09/2014

Kim Dotcom voted today – with cameras following:

It’s a secret ballot but there’s no secret that he’d be voting for what he’s paying for –  a last-ditch attempt to avoid extradition.

The only way to stop the puppets whose strings he’s pulling having any say in government is a party vote for National.

Unless there’s a major change from recent polls, Labour and the Greens won’t have enough support to govern without the support of New Zealand First and the Internet and Mana parties – together or apart.

Dotcom can’t stand for parliament but he’s paying other people to do it for him and once there he’ll want to extract a price.

He would be the puppet master shadowing a Labour/Green/NZ First/ Internet/Mana coalition.

Only if there’s a National-led government will he be unable to pull any influential strings.

Only a party vote for  National deliver that.


Keep the team that’s working

02/09/2014

The choice for New Zealanders in this election is to keep the team that’s working or change it for one that won’t:

The National Party has launched a new phase in its election campaign with new television commercials and election billboards highlighting the clear choice facing New Zealand voters.

“On air now is a short 15 second television commercial highlighting the stark difference between the opposition’s spending promises and our own strong economic management,” says National’s Campaign Chair Steven Joyce.

“The simple truth is that to date Labour and the Greens have released reckless spending commitments that total up to $28 billion, and that’s before they add in Dotcom’s party.

“Labour alone has committed to a staggering $18.4 billion, a figure the Greens want independently audited.

“Even in opposition, Labour, the Greens and their mates can’t agree on basic policy, like what the top personal tax rate should be.”

“In contrast, our plan will keep growing the economy and delivering the benefits of that growth to all New Zealanders – like 150,000 more jobs by 2018, free doctors’ visits and prescriptions for children under 13, 18 weeks paid parental leave, Kiwisaver HomeStart grants for first home buyers and no new taxes,” says Steven Joyce. . .

The choice is clear – a strong and stable team with a proven record continuing to steer New Zealand in the right direction or the left at best taking us nowhere good and at worst taking us backwards.

 

 

 

 

 


Poll of polls

02/09/2014

Colin James’ poll of polls:

Two new polls have affirmed a moderate downward trend in National’s support since July — but only to a still-high level of support at which to govern it would need, at most, support from ACT’s and United Future’s single electorate seats. National’s latest four-poll average was 48.4%.

Labour looks to be troughing. But it also appeared to have troughed in July, only to drop again in early August. Its latest average was 26.2%, below its whole-of-2014 average of 28.8%.

The polls in the latest four-poll average were all taken after Nicky Hager’s Dirty Politics book was launched on August 13 but before Judith Collins’ sudden resignation on 30 August. The latest midpoint between the start and finish of interviewing was 25 August.

Amidst all this, the Greens held steady at a 12.5% average, which would net it 16 seats, half of the total Labour could expect on its reading.

cjpoll

cjpolls

The two winners from the fallout from National and Labour have been New Zealand First, average 5.2%, and the Conservatives, average 3.1%, both slightly down from recent peaks. Internet-Mana was 2.6%, the Maori party 0.9% (not enough to bring in additional seats to Te Ururoa Flavell’s electorate seat unless other candidates win electorate seats), ACT 0.4% and United Future 0.2%.

A Maori Television poll has Maori Party leader and sitting MP Te Ururoa Flavell with 50% support in Waiariki.

The Maori Party has voted with the opposition more than the government. But given the choice of working with a National-led government of propping up a Labour/Green/NZ First/ Internet/Mana one it is almost certain to opt for stability and certainty rather than instability.

 


Beyer sees the light

02/09/2014

The rope between the Internet and Mana parties is beginning to fray:

Internet Mana candidate Georgina Beyer has gone rogue and come out swinging at her party’s so-called visionary, Kim Dotcom.

She says he’s pulling the strings and is in politics for all the wrong reasons – including revenge.

Internet Mana’s the party that’s big on going big – big names, big productions, big personalities. But now it seems it’s got big problems too.

“Who is pulling the strings? Well, the big man himself,” says Ms Beyer.

Ms Beyer, a former Labour MP and New Zealand’s first transgender MP, is Mana’s candidate in the southern Maori seat of Te Tai Tonga.

She believes Dotcom is tearing her party apart.

“His reasons for becoming involved in New Zealand politics in the way he has is one of retribution against people who he feels have slighted him,” says Ms Beyer. . .

She has seen the light but her leader was still letting the puppet master pull his strings last week:

The Internet Mana Party has had another media blowout, with Hone Harawira stopping an interview and walking off after just one question.

Mr Harawira refused to talk about his party’s U-turn on cannabis and would only take questions on a Te Tai Tokerau candidates’ debate.

He was once one of Parliament’s toughest opponents to cannabis, but Mr Harawira has flip flopped. Mana now wants to see decriminalisation – fitting with the preferred position of Kim Dotcom’s Internet Party. . .

Dotcom is buying political power for two reasons – hatred of Prime Minister John Key and an attempt to stop his extradition to face charges in the USA.

The  IMP agreement need last no longer than six weeks after the election. If Beyer can persuade others in the party to return to their principles it could fall apart much sooner.


Bribe-O-Meter update

01/09/2014

The Taxpayers’ Union has updated its Bribe-O-Meter to include four of the wee parties:

The Taxpayers’ Union have added the Green, ACT, United Future and Conservative Parties to the ‘Bribe-O-Meter’ hosted at taxpayers.org.nz.  Excluding ACT and New Zealand First, the total election ‘bribes’ – that is new spending not already in the budget covering the next parliamentary term, equals $12.7 billion, or $7,486 per household.

Jordan Williams, Executive Director of the Taxpayers’ Union, says, “The Bribe-O-Meter is enabling Kiwis to judge for themselves the various bribes this election. With the addition of the minor parties voters can assess which political parties are offering taxpayers value for money.”

“As of the end of last week, National’s election promises add up to $329 per household. The equivalent figure for Labour is $2,776, the Greens $2,893, United Future $1,253, and the Conservatives $236. ACT is in the negative, committing to cut spending by $6,876 per household.”

A lack of detail in New Zealand First’s policy documents has made it impossible for the Union’s independent expert, Dr Michael Dunn, to calculate credible figures for the Party’s inclusion in the Bribe-O-Meter.  Public and private requests to New Zealand First have, to date, not resulted in amelioration. 

If someone who used to do social policy costing for IRD can’t figure out NZ First’s costs, the problem is with the party and its policies.

Mr Williams says, “While National, Labour, the Greens, Conservatives, ACT, and United Future have provided the Union with sufficient policy and financial material to estimate the cost of their election manifestos, New Zealand First apparently just doesn’t have the information for our expert. It appears that Mr Peters makes promises to all and sundry, but no one at his office is adding up the cost.”

“We are delighted that in the last week, parties have come to us to test our expert’s assumptions and the Bribe-O-Meter’s methodology. On the basis of new information that parties have provided we’ve updated our figures and are able to provide more transparency to the voting public on precisely what parties are promising.” . .

The Bribe-O-Meter is here.

bribeometer

 

This puts the lie to claims by Labour and the Green Party that they will be fiscally responsible.

National’s promises amount to a total of $558 billion which is  $328.81 a household.

Labour’s total is $4,707 billion – $2,775.68 per household.

Green Party’s total is the highest – at $4.707 $4.906 billion, a cost of $2,893.03 a household.

The Act Party would reduce costs by $11,660 billion – a reduction of $6,875.60 per household.

United Future’s total is $2.124 billion –  $1,252.51 per household.

The Conservative Party’s total costs amount to $$0.400 billion – $235.88 a household.

NZ Firsts costs are a like its leaders utterings – whatever he thinks it is.

Labour and Green Party policies are already at 7482.68 billion.

That doesn’t take account of the cost NZ First and Internet Mana would require for their support.

Nor does it take into count the added costs of higher taxes, higher interest rates, higher inflation, more welfare and a stalled economy.


What matters

31/08/2014

Trans Tasman on what matters to voters:

The vital factor for NZers as they come to vote are issues which impact on their lives: the trajectory of the economy, jobs, living standards, inflation, house prices, education and health services. Voters’ assessments on the credibility, competency and leadership of the parties weigh equally heavily. And a primary concern is stability of the Govt to be elected under the MMP system. . .

Anyone who understands the issues, the policies, the parties has a clear choice.

A stable, National-led government will continue with the policies which are working in these important areas; a weak unstable Labour-led government propped up by the Green, New Zealand First and Internet Mana parties won’t.

There are major differences in policies too, not the least of which is tax:

Where Labour is talking of raising taxes, National is dropping broad hints it wants to lower taxes by revising tax thresholds to provide some relief for those on low and middle incomes.  . .

The PREFU supported the government’s claims that the books will be back in surplus.

There is no justification for increasing tax rates. If conditions allow, there could be a case for some reductions, if only to counter bracket creep.

The only justification for adding a new tax would be by taking away an existing one.

Labour and its left-wing cling-ons want to increase tax rates and introduce new ones as extras not replacements.

High tax and high spending under the last Labour-led government put New Zealand into recession long before the rest of the world. That they haven’t learned from that mistake shows they can’t be trusted with the public purse again.
In their last five years in government, Labour’s spending increased by 50%, pushing mortgage rates to 11%, causing inflation to exceed 5%, and putting the economy into recession well before the global financial crisis. Now they want to make the same mistakes all over again.

In stark contrast National has spent the last six years working for New Zealand with policies that are working for New Zealanders and this week announced more of its plan for the next three years:

We’re focused on the things that matter to New Zealanders. If you’ve missed any of our policy announcements this week, we’ve summed them up below. If you want more information on any of these announcements visit: www.national.org.nz/plan #Working4NZ


They haven’t learned a thing

30/08/2014

Labour and the Green Party are trying to pretend they would be good economic managers.

The cost of their policies puts the lie to that:

David Cunliffe and Labour have actually increased their new spending promises for the next four years to $18.4 billion, despite putting some of their proposals such as New Zealand Power on the never-never, National Party Finance Spokesman Bill English says.

“David Cunliffe and David Parker have again been caught out under-costing their expensive promises,” Mr English says. “This is irresponsible and deceptive and confirms that under David Cunliffe, Labour is reverting to its failed spend and tax recipe of the past.

“We saw what happened the last time around – under Labour in 2008, floating mortgage rates reached almost 11 per cent, inflation exceeded 5 per cent and the economy went into recession well before the global financial crisis.”

Labour’s latest costings attempt, which it released on Monday, confirm its untried New Zealand Power proposal, which would give politicians control of the electricity industry and push up power prices, would be postponed until 1 January 2018.

And in another example of it attempting to dress up its numbers, Labour has also pushed back free GP visits for over 65s and other groups to 1 January 2017.

“So while David Cunliffe is going around New Zealand making expensive promises, he is quietly pushing some of them back beyond two elections because he knows they are unaffordable,” Mr English says.

“But he has again failed to hide Labour’s real spending agenda because he has not added in promises made over the last two weeks.

“Even using Labour’s own numbers, the cost of its promises over the next four years is now $17.3 billion – up from its claimed $16.4 billion when it first attempted to cost its policies.

“But when the real costs of its proposed R&D tax credit, compulsory KiwiSaver and New Zealand Power are included, the tally jumps to $18.4 billion – up from around $18 billion the last time around.

“As Labour’s numbers come under scrutiny, they keep changing them,” Mr English says. “David Cunliffe has tried to say he would spend less, but when you add it all up he is actually spending more.”

Labour Party Election 2014 Spending Announcements – as at 27 August 2014
Four year costings as per Labour documents unless noted

$m
27-Jan-14 Best Start Policy 614
27-Jan-14 Extended Paid Parental Leave 245
27-Jan-14 Maternity Policies 50
27-Jan-14 Early Childhood Education Announcements 352
19-Mar-14 Forestry Policy 28
14-Apr-14 Bowel Screening Programme 56
23-Apr-14 Veterans Pension Extension 37
23-Jun-14 Canterbury Policies 116
25-Jun-14 R & D Tax Credit* 1,079
25-Jun-14 Accelerated Depreciation 210
25-Jun-14 Universal KiwiSaver** 845
25-Jun-14 NZ Power*** 566
25-Jun-14 KiwiBuild 1,527
25-Jun-14 KiwiBuild Finance Costs 176
2-Jul-14 School Donation Policy 175
3-Jul-14 Family & Sexual Violence Policies 60
5-Jul-14 Digital Devices in Schools 120
5-Jul-14 Reading Recovery 140
5-Jul-14 Food in Schools 70
11-Jul-14 ICT policies 17
22-Jul-14 Regional Investment Fund 200
24-Jul-14 Digital and Connectivity Policy 21
30-Jul-14 Living wage for Public Sector 94
31-Jul-14 Centres of Vocational Excellence 40
4-Aug-14 Youth Employment Package 182
6-Aug-14 Primary Healthcare 150
8-Aug-14 ACC 40
10-Aug-14 Free Doctors’ Visits 540
18-Aug-14 Tertiary Education (incl ACE) 130
20-Aug-14 Aged Care 222
22-Aug-14 Welfare Policy 78
24-Aug-14 Immediate Funding of City Rail Link**** 800
25-Aug-14 Other Education Initiatives 45
25-Aug-14 Other Smaller Initiatives 80
25-Aug-14 Maintain Real Value of Spending in Public Services 9,000
25-Aug-14 Policy Soon to be Announced 289
Total Announced Spending Pledges 18,394

*Adjusted to reflect Treasury’s forecast costs of the previous R & D Tax credit
**Adjusted to include the average Kiwisaver tax credit paid to new Kiwisaver members
***Adjusted to remove the claimed fiscal offset for wider benefits in one part of the economy that ignores wider costs elsewhere
****Labour says it would reprioritise existing transport spend but most of first 4 yrs committed/contracted

Note: some costs differ from the original Labour releases as a result of fiscal tables released 25 August.

This is only the cost of its spending.

It doesn’t take into account the cost of poor economic management, higher and extra taxes, higher interest rates, a greater burden of government and all the other hand brakes a Labour/Green?New Zealand First.Internet Mana government would impose on the country.

Higher spending and higher taxes didn’t work for New Zealand under the last Labour-led government and it won’t work if voters are conned into trusting another one.

Hopefully voters have learned what works for New Zealand and New Zealanders because Labour and its mismatched mates haven’t.

 

In their last five years in government, Labour’s spending increased by 50%, pushing mortgage rates to 11%, causing inflation to exceed 5%, and putting the economy into recession well before the global financial crisis. Now they want to make the same mistakes all over again.


Election outcome less certain

28/08/2014

It was inevitable that polls would tighten as the election gets closer and last night’s 3 News Reid Research poll shows that’s happening:

August 19-25, 1000 people polled, margin of error 3.1 percent

National 45 percent, down 2.5 percent
Labour 26.4 percent, down 2.6 percent
Greens 13.5 percent, up 0.5 percent
NZ First 6.3 percent, up 1.7 percent
Conservative 4.6 percent, up 2.1 percent
Internet Mana 2.1 percent, up 0.1 percent
Maori Party 0.7 percent, down 0.1 percent
United Future 0.4 percent, up 0.2 percent
ACT 0.3 percent, no change

Seats in the house:

National 57
ACT 1
United Future 1
Maori Party 2
Right total: 61

Labour 33
Greens 17
Internet Mana 3
Left total: 53

NZ First 8

The Maori Party could go left or right.

But while it has voted against National more times than with it, the choice of being in a stable National-led government supported by Act, United Future and possibly New Zealand First would almost certainly be preferable to it than supporting an unstable Labour, Green, NZ First, Internet Mana coalition.

The Conservative Party is now in spitting distance of the 5% threshold.

Kiwiblog shows that if it makes it into parliament, Labour won’t be able to govern:

Conservatives 4.6%

Centre-Right 59 seats (Nat 57, ACT 1, UF1)

Centre-Left 53 seats (Lab 33, Greens 17, Internet Mana 3)

Centre 11 seats (NZ First 8, Maori 3)

This means National would need the Maori Party to govern, and Labour would need both NZ First and the Maori Party (plus Greens, Mana)

Conservatives 5.0%

Centre-Right 62 seats (Nat 54,  Conservatives 6, ACT 1, UF1)

Centre-Left 51 seats (Lab 32, Greens 16, Internet Mana 3)

Centre 11 seats (NZ First 8, Maori 3)

This means National would still need the Maori Party (or NZ First) to govern, but Labour would be unable to govern under any combination.

As another example of MMP’s perversity, National would have more seats if the Conservative Party didn’t make it into parliament but could be

more likely to govern if the Conservatives do cross the line because Labour wouldn’t be able to cobble together a coalition.


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