New Zealand’s fertility rate has dropped well below replacement level:
In the December 2017 year:
- 59,610 live births and 33,339 deaths were registered in New Zealand, resulting in a natural increase (live births minus deaths) of 26,268.
- There were 180 more births and 2,160 more deaths compared with 2016.
- The total fertility rate dropped to a low of 1.81 births per woman, compared with an annual average of about 2.01 from 1980–2017.
- The infant mortality rate was 3.9 deaths per 1,000 live births.
- All regions had more births than deaths.
If it wasn’t for a lower death rate and more immigration our population would be in decline.
The replacement rate for fertility is around 2.1% in the developed world. New Zealand has joined other OECD countries in falling below that.
Part of the reason for that is more couples are choosing to have no children or just one child.
Another reason is that more are leaving it too late and fertility drops for both men and women as they age.
The birth rate has dropped for all ages and among the statistics is one very positive one, the teenage fertility rate has dropped to its lowest ever:
The teenage fertility rate has dropped to its lowest ever, with 15 live births per 1,000 women aged 15–19 in 2017 – just under half the 2008 rate of 33.
In 1962, when fertility rates were highest for women in their twenties, the teenage fertility rate was 54 births per 1,000 women aged 15–19. While rates dropped for women in their twenties throughout the 1960s and 1970s, the teenage rate increased to a peak of 69 births per 1,000 women in 1972. The teenage rate then decreased to 30 births per 1,000 women in 1984.
The media release doesn’t say how many of the teenage mothers are single but the drop in the number of teens giving birth is reflected in a drop in benefit numbers for teen parents.
In 2017, the median age (half are younger and half older than this age) of New Zealand women giving birth was 30 years. It has remained at 30 years since 1999. In comparison, the median age of women giving birth in the 1970s was 25 years.
If, we want a return to replacement fertility rates or higher the aim should be to encourage more couples to have children sooner but not too soon – in their 20s rather than their 30s or teens.