If an election was held tomorrow . . .


The question polling companies ask is if an election was held tomorrow which party would you vote for?

The answer to that is very encouraging for National and very depressing for Labour and the parties it would need to cobble together a government.

Last night’s Roy Morgan poll and today’s Fairfax Media Ipsos poll, both confirm the trend of National above 50% and Labour and the GIMPs below it.

But the election isn’t being held tomorrow and while the odds favour National that could actually work against it.

No party has won 50% support since we’ve had MMP and the high support could lead to complacency.

National supporters might think they don’t need to vote or they can afford to play with their party vote.

That certainly isn’t the case.

Complacency or over-confidence from centre right voters could let Labour and the Green, NZ First and Internet Mana parties cobble together a coalition of the unwilling and ill-disciplined.


Majority don’t want new taxes


The Fairfax Media Ipsos poll showed that more than two thirds of people are opposed to raising taxes to pay for new spending.

Only 25.4% of respondents supported increased taxes, 5.4% didn’t know and 69.4% were opposed.

Opposition parties who are promoting new taxes including one on capital gains should take that as a warning.

New spending should be funded by savings elsewhere, not by increased taxes.

Trend matters


Individual poll results show variations in rises and falls but the trend is consistent.

The latest Fairfax Media Ipsos poll has

National: 49.4% (Oct 2013 Fairfax-Ipsos poll: 50.2%)
Labour: 31.8% (33.6%)
Greens: 10.00% (10.7%)
NZ First: 3.6% (2.3%)

Other parties were in margin-of-error territories, led by Colin Craig’s Conservatives, which was up 1.3% to 2%. Kim Dotcom’s putative Internet Party drew no support.

National is still unusually popular for a second term government and Labour isn’t any better off with a new leader and the baby bribe.

It’s still several months until the election but the trend is encouraging for the centre right and must be causing considerable angst among the left.

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