Greens +1 Nats -1 after specials counted

22/11/2008

The Green party gained an MP and National lost one in the official election results when special votes were all counted.

That means Kennedy Graham will become and MP and Cam Calder, the last MP in on National’s list won’t be.

 

Polling Places Counted: 6,656 of 6,656 (100.0%)
Total Votes Counted: 2,356,536
Party Party
Votes
%
Votes
Electorate
Seats
List
Seats
Total
Seats
National Party 1,053,398 44.93 41 17 58
Labour Party 796,880 33.99 21 22 43
Green Party 157,613 6.72 0 9 9
ACT New Zealand 85,496 3.65 1 4 5
Mäori Party 55,980 2.39 5 0 5
Jim Anderton’s Progressive 21,241 0.91 1 0 1
United Future 20,497 0.87 1 0 1
New Zealand First Party 95,356 4.07 0 0 0
The Bill and Ben Party 13,016 0.56 0 0 0
Kiwi Party 12,755 0.54 0 0 0
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 9,515 0.41 0 0 0
New Zealand Pacific Party 8,640 0.37 0 0 0
Family Party 8,176 0.35 0 0 0
Alliance 1,909 0.08 0 0 0
Democrats for Social Credit 1,208 0.05 0 0 0
Libertarianz 1,176 0.05 0 0 0
Workers Party 932 0.04 0 0 0
RAM – Residents Action Movement 465 0.02 0 0 0
The Republic of New Zealand Party 313 0.01 0 0 0
  70 52 122

Blue wash bad for democracy?

10/11/2008

The day after the 2005 election a journalist rang to ask me why the provinces went blue.

The question was a response to the gains by National of seats like Invercargill, Aoraki, East Coast, Napier, Tukituki, Tauranga, Wairarapa, and Whanganui which blue washed provincial New Zealand, leaving just West Coast Tasman, Dunedin, most Christchurch seats, New Plymouth, Palmerston North, Wellington and most Auckland seats red.

He wondered if it was socially liberal legislation such as legalising prostitution and civil unions. I replied that I didn’t think these’d had a significantly greater impact in the provinces than they’d had in cities.

The change was more a reflection on the calibre of National’s candidates and the commitment they’d made to winning combined with disenchantment with Labour MPs who’d not been effective in their electorates.

But it was also a growing concern over the negative impact of Labour’s policy and in this the provinces led the country because this time, as a map from Wikipedia  shows the country is even even bluer – National gained West Coast Tasman , Otaki and New Plymouth, leaving Palmerston North   as the only general seat outside Dunedin, Christchurch, Wellington and Dunedin held by Labour and they now hold only two of the Maori seats too.

 

It wasn’t just the provinces which went blue. National also picked up Auckland Central , Maungakiekie and Waitakere as well as the new seat of Botany.

This is great for National and I also think it’s great for New Zealand.

But is it good for democracy?

Electorate MPs face the people who put them in parliament, they work for them as individuals, they see the impact of government policies on them and if they’re effective, they feed that back to Wellington.

It’s the party vote that counts in the make-up of parliament and government. But electorate MPs play a very big role in attracting the party vote.

Good local MPs contribute a great deal to the image of their party, they are a walking talking advertisement for it and its most accessible representative. They build up personal support that can transcend party affiliation – people who can’t bring themselves to vote for a party will give a popular MP their candidate vote. This increases their majority when their party is in favour and may help them retain their seats when the tide turns against their party.

Electorate MPs also play another important role in a democratic country, they also help motivate and encourage volunteers.

Parties on the left often complain that it’s easier for National because our supporters are wealthier and so we have more money. That’s not necessarily so, we have members across the income spectrum and you only have to go back to 2002 to see that Labour can get more money than National.

National’s real strength is not the incomes of our supporters, it’s the number and commitment of its grassroots members and ironically the Electoral Finance Act constrained spending so tightly, it gave national an advantage because campaigns depended on volunteers more than ever.

And that’s why I ask if the bluewash is good for democracy, because one of the things it shows is that other parties don’t have good grassroots support throughout New Zealand.

That’s a concern for them but it’s also a concern for the country because political parties have a great deal of power under MMP and if they don’t have strong memberships that power is based on an unstable foundation of ideology rather than the stable one of broad based and committed supporters.

Hat tip: Kiwiblog.


NZ election results

08/11/2008

The National Party’s Waitaki Electorate is partying in Oamaru.

National’s Jacqui Dean is the only candidate who was seeking both ticks but we’ll wait for some of the indicator booths to be counted before we get too excited.

eday-002

Update #1: 11.1% of votes counted:

National Party 133,847 48.79 44 19 63
Labour Party 86,035 31.36 18 22 40
Green Party 16,919 6.17 0 8 8
Mäori Party 5,832 2.13 5 0 5
ACT New Zealand 9,347 3.41 1 3 4
Jim Anderton’s Progressive 2,304 0.84 1 0 1
United Future 2,204 0.80 1 0 1
New Zealand First Party 12,373 4.51 0 0 0

That 4.51% for New Zealand First is too close to 5% for comfort.

Update # 2 With 32.9% counted:

National Party 269,633 47.81 42 19 61
Labour Party 180,069 31.93 20 21 41
Green Party 36,083 6.40 0 8 8
ACT New Zealand 20,148 3.57 1 4 5
Mäori Party 12,025 2.13 5 0 5
Jim Anderton’s Progressive 5,031 0.89 1 0 1
United Future 4,763 0.84 1 0 1
New Zealand First Party 24,035 4.26 0 0 0

Update # 3: First cheer of the night – TV1 just said NZ First won’t be in parliament.

Update # 4: Jacqui Dean is the new MP for Waitaki, Labour’s candidate David Parker conceded the seat – at 9.30.

Update # 4 : With 90.9% counted:

National Party 859,959 45.58 41 18 59
Labour Party 634,083 33.61 21 22 43
Green Party 121,982 6.47 0 8 8
ACT New Zealand 69,911 3.71 1 4 5
Mäori Party 42,221 2.24 5 0 5
Jim Anderton’s Progressive 17,665 0.94 1 0 1
United Future 16,804 0.89 1 0 1
New Zealand First Party 80,114 4.25 0 0 0

Update # 5: with 96.9% of polling places counted:

National Party 921,446 45.51 41 18 59
Labour Party 681,707 33.67 21 22 43
Green Party 130,995 6.47 0 8 8
ACT New Zealand 75,148 3.71 1 4 5
Mäori Party 45,465 2.25 5 0 5
Jim Anderton’s Progressive 19,045 0.94 1 0 1
United Future 18,116 0.89 1 0 1

Update # 6: From RadioNZ

Results: Party Vote

    National 45.5%
    Labour 33.7%
    Green 6.5%
    NZ First 4.2%
    ACT 3.7%
    Maori 2.2%
    Progressive 0.9%
    United Future 0.9%

(Total votes counted: 97.6%)

Update # 7: with 98.3% counted

National Party 936,315 45.46 41 18 59
Labour Party 695,014 33.74 21 22 43
Green Party 133,108 6.46 0 8 8
ACT New Zealand 76,352 3.71 1 4 5
Mäori Party 46,208 2.24 5 0 5
Jim Anderton’s Progressive 19,303 0.94 1 0 1
United Future 18,389 0.89 1 0 1

Results: Party Vote

    National 45.4%
    Labour 33.8%
    Green 6.5%
    NZ First 4.2%
    ACT 3.7%
    Maori 2.3%
    Progressive 0.9%
    United Future 0.9%

(Total votes counted: 98.6%)

Update #  8: the blue team has won.

Results: Party Vote

    National 45.5%
    Labour 33.8%
    Green 6.4%
    NZ First 4.2%
    ACT 3.7%
    Maori 2.3%
    Progressive 0.9%
    United Future 0.9%

(Total votes counted: 99.7%)

National Party 949,584 45.47 41 18 59
Labour Party 704,909 33.75 21 22 43
Green Party 134,400 6.44 0 8 8
ACT New Zealand 77,699 3.72 1 4 5
Mäori Party 46,721 2.24 5 0 5
Jim Anderton’s Progressive 19,507 0.93 1 0 1
United Future 18,604 0.89 1 0 1
New Zealand First Party 87,929 4.21 0 0 0
Kiwi Party 11,599 0.56 0 0 0
The Bill and Ben Party 10,728 0.51 0 0 0
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 7,571 0.36 0 0 0
New Zealand Pacific Party 6,944 0.33 0 0 0
Family Party 6,944 0.33 0 0 0
Alliance 1,720 0.08 0 0 0
Democrats for Social Credit 1,112 0.05 0 0 0
Libertarianz 1,024 0.05 0 0 0
Workers Party 824 0.04 0 0 0
RAM – Residents Action Movement 404 0.02 0 0 0
The Republic of New Zealand Party 298 0.01 0 0 0
  70 52 122

Update:  # 9- final result:

Polling Places Counted: 6,304 of 6,304 (100.0%)
Total Votes Counted: 2,103,842
Special Votes: 208,001
Less than 6 votes taken in Polling Places: 1,261
Party Party
Votes
%
Votes
Electorate
Seats
List
Seats
Total
Seats
National Party 951,145 45.45 41 18 59
Labour Party 706,666 33.77 21 22 43
Green Party 134,622 6.43 0 8 8
ACT New Zealand 77,843 3.72 1 4 5
Mäori Party 46,894 2.24 5 0 5
Jim Anderton’s Progressive 19,536 0.93 1 0 1
United Future 18,629 0.89 1 0 1

Only one more sleep . .

07/11/2008

. . . until election day and there is some policy to consider.


Only 2 more sleeps . . .

06/11/2008

. . . until election day and the USA has voted for change.


3 more sleeps . . .

05/11/2008

. . . until election day and the don’t-knows are still to be won over.


4 more sleeps . . .

04/11/2008

. . . until the election and two of The Herald’s commentators  gave a narrow win to John Key and the third declared it a draw.


5 more sleeps . . .

03/11/2008

. . . until election day and the man who was happy to be MP for Tauranga will be unhappy with the TV1 poll.


6 more sleeps . . .

02/11/2008

. . . until the election and Bill and Ben are on the campaign trail too.


Seven more sleeps . . .

01/11/2008

. . . until the election and the character polls  are good news for John Key, bad news for Helen Clark.


8 more sleeps . . .

31/10/2008

. . . until election day and is anyone surprised at which parties the unions like?


Breaking news: shock resignation

30/10/2008

National leader John Key has resigned and withdrawn his party from the election.

 

In a shock announcement today, he admitted that he simply didn’t have what it takes to be Prime Minister.

 

“This hasn’t been an easy decision for me but after a close examination of the government’s response to recent events I’ve been forced to admit that a couple of decades of hard work in the real world haven’t equipped me to steer the ship of state through the rough economic seas,” he said.

 

“I thought that the skills and abilities which enabled me to succeed in business and my personal life and all I’ve learned from that would be enough. But I’ve been studying Helen Clark and realise I simply don’t have what it takes to do the job.

 

“I made a real mistake gaining international business and leadership experience when I should have been devoting myself to academia and politics at home.

 

“If I’d done that I’d have understood that winning an election and governing the country aren’t about looking forward and having a sound, costed plan to provide the economic foundation on which to build a better educated, healthier and more secure society where success is valued, independence is encouraged and environmental protection and enhancement are measured by results not slogans.

 

“I admit that’s what I thought was needed but I was obviously wrong because everyone says Helen Clark is a consummate politician and she’s not doing any of that.

 

“She’s looking backwards, dropping irresponsible and un-costed promises like confetti at a wedding, getting sidetracked by soap operas and muckraking. And I know this is a sign of weakness but I haven’t got what it takes to do that.

 

“I thought it would help to bring honesty, integrity and principles to the office of Prime Minister but a close scrutiny of the incumbent and her behaviour have shown that those things would be liabilities.

 

“She’s made it obvious that what you need is a complete lack of scruples; the will to surrender dearly held principles for political gain; to prostitute yourself to anyone who’ll help you cling to power; the ability to lie through your teeth and anyone else’s; and the gall to deny any knowledge of muckraking even though your hands are covered in mud.

 

“When it comes down to it I just don’t have the stomach for that. I wouldn’t be able to get up every morning, look myself in the mirror then face my family and try to explain to them that it didn’t matter what was happening to New Zealand and its people as long as I was in charge.

 

Mr Key said while he took full responsibility for his decision he also felt he’d been let down by his party hierarchy.

 

“When I suggested Judy [Kirk, National Party president] might dig into old university records to prove that Helen Clark once split an infinitive in an essay she said she had an election to win and wasn’t going to waste her time on inventing dirty kites that wouldn’t fly.

 

Mr Key made the announcement at a media conference at which he handed the election to Labour in a second hand recycled hemp hand basket.

 

He said he’d chosen it himself and had taken great care to ensure it would be acceptable to the Green Party which would be the new government’s dominant coalition partner.


9 more sleeps . . .

30/10/2008

. . . until the election and Labour’s misleading us about trust.


10 more sleeps . . .

29/10/2008

. . . until the election and when John says no he means no.


11 more sleeps . . .

28/10/2008

. . . until the election and Centrebet’s odds have shortened a little in line with the polls.


12 more sleeps . . .

27/10/2008

. . . until the election and the average of polls still has a National led government – just.


14 more sleeps

25/10/2008

. . . unitl the election and the thought of a five headed monstor is enough to put anyone off their whitebait.


15 more sleeps . . .

24/10/2008

. . . until the election and Labour has spent $58,000 of our money on their pamphlet.


16 more sleeps . . .

23/10/2008

. . . until the election and the Aussies aren’t interested.

Hat Tip: Adding Noughts


19 more sleeps . . .

20/10/2008

. . . until the election and thanks to the Electoral Finance Act we still don’t know it logos are election advertisement.


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