Election results

September 20, 2014

It’s 7pm, polling booths have closed.

Counting of advance votes started at 2pm and should be announced by 8:30.

My predictions (%):

National 48ish

Labour 22ish

Green Party 12ish

NZ First 5ish

Conservative Party 4ish

Maori Party 2ish

Act 2ish

IMP 1ish

United Future .5ish

Official results can be found here.

Predicted results from the Election Data Consortium are here.


Stickerless

September 20, 2014

I had to go to town this morning and passed three polling booths on the way.

I didn’t stop at any, instead I detoured out of my way on the return journey to the nearest one to where I live. There aren’t many country booths now and I thought I should use it lest we lose it.

It was busy – three people ahead of me and one behind, which is busy as country booths go.

The process so was easy I had to check my voting form three times to make sure I’d ticked the right boxes, I then folded the ballot paper, put it in the box and walked out stickerless.

I don’t know whether there were no stickers or whether the woman working there forgot to give me one, but I have voted even though I don’t have a sticker to prove it.


In praise of participation

September 20, 2014

Today is election day.

For candidates and parties it is the culmination of months of work – planning, fund raising, motivating and organising volunteers and campaigning.

For everyone who will become an MP tonight, there are many more who stood but won’t be successful.

All of them have played an important part in a democratic process and made sacrifices to do so.

Whatever they stood for and whatever their motivation for doing so, they will have made a big financial and personal commitment.

Campaigning is very hard work but it had to stop by midnight yesterday.

Today the work goes on with party members scrutineering, taking people to polling places and doing all they can to get out the vote among their supporters – without doing anything which could be construed as persuading people to vote for or against a particular party of candidate.

Now it’s up to us.

Many have already taken the opportunity to vote in advance.

I didn’t because I like the sense of occasion and community which comes from going to and being at a polling place on polling day and I will be voting today.

While doing so I will be grateful for the freedom to not only do so but do so in secret and with the knowledge that there are rigorous checks and balances in place to safeguard the integrity of the process.

I will also be grateful for everyone who has participated in the process in big ways and small. The more people who do that, the stronger the democracy.


Courting undecided dog lovers

September 19, 2014

Human hoardings are one way to court voters.

Today we enlisted the assistance of Jimmy for canine hoardings:

Jimmy


In case you’ve forgotten

September 19, 2014

We need another strong, stable National Government to keep turning that progress into more jobs and long term prosperity.

MMP elections are always close, even with the Opposition in disarray. Labour could still cobble together a government with the Greens, Dotcom, and New Zealand First. That would stall our economy and create economic chaos.

The only way to deliver another strong, stable National Government that will keep New Zealand moving in the right direction is to PARTY VOTE NATIONAL tomorrow.

Tell all your friends, family, whanau and work mates - Party Vote National. #Working4NZ #teamkey

 

Thanks for tuning in tonight. If you want a National Government, party vote National. #Decision14 #Working4NZ

Thanks for tuning in. MMP elections are always close. Only your Party Vote for National will keep the team that’s #Working4NZ. #Vote2014NZ

 

"Only


Poll of polls

September 19, 2014

Colin James’ final poll of polls:

National’s trends from 20 June and from 20 August to the latest interviewing midpoint of 15 September, projected forward five days to tomorrow, points towards around 47.5% on the final count. Take out 1%-1.5% to account for the overweighting of National by the Fairfax Ipsos poll by comparison with all others in most of its recent polling (but not the most recent): that would give 46%-46.5%.

The trends for Labour point to 25% and for the Greens to 12.5%-13% . . .

The latest polls took National’s lead over Labour and the Greens down to a still healthy 8.2%. . . .

New Zealand First’s latest average was 7.6%, the Conservatives’ 4.3%. Internet-Mana was down to 1.4%, the Maori party was 1.2% (just enough to ensure two seats), ACT was 0.4% and United Future 0.1%.

New Zealand First’s trend from 20 June points to 6.5%. But, since most of its rise was in the past six weeks, the trend from 20 August may be more accurate. It points to 7.5%. The same last-six-weeks upward tick applies for the Conservatives. Their trend from August 20 points to around 4.2%. Internet Mana’s downtrend points it toward 1.2%. . . .

There’s  no doubt National will be well ahead of Labour and the Greens combined but that doesn’t guarantee a National-led government.

This reinforced the need for anyone who wants stable government, a growing economy and the social dividends that enables, to give their party vote to National.
Photo: Only our plans will ensure a strong, open economy that delivers more for New Zealanders and their families. PARTY VOTE National. #Working4NZ


Don’t vote for chaos

September 19, 2014

The choice is clear: continuing stable government that’s working for New Zealand and New Zealanders or chaos:

 

If you’re not already convinced what any government beholden to Winston Peters would be like, listen to Guyon Espiner (at 7:18) attempting to get a straight answer from him.

New Zealand First is likely to get at least 5% of the vote. Labour’s weakness would give him strength.

The higher National’s party vote is, the stronger its negotiating position will be and the more stable the government will be.


Moment of strewth sinks IMP?

September 19, 2014

Kim Dotcom’s moment of truth turned into a moment of strewth, is that all there is?

Rather than sinking Prime Minister and the National Party as he had hoped, the Herald DigiPoll showed it did the opposite:

The Kim Dotcom-inspired event in Auckland’s Town Hall that was supposed to end John Key’s career gave the National Party an immediate bounce in support this week, according to polling for the last Herald DigiPoll survey.

With 60 per cent of the poll done by Monday night, when the event happened, National was polling at 47.8 per cent, down on last week, said DigiPoll general manager Nandan Modak. From Tuesday it jumped to 49.1 per cent.

A similar trend was seen in the preferred Prime Minister polling. Before Monday, Mr Key was polling at 63.4 per cent. From Tuesday it jumped to 66.4 per cent.

Mr Key who has led a minority National Government for six years is seeking a third term in tomorrow’s election against a Labour Party that has been led for only a year by David Cunliffe.

Mr Key told the Herald last night the results on Saturday “may well prove that a campaign led by Kim Dotcom based mostly on revenge will serve to only reduce the likelihood of a change of Government”.

While the moment of strewth helped National, it harmed Dotcom’s puppet party and might even be enough to sink it:

Today’s poll also has the internet-Mana strategic alliance funded by Mr Dotcom sinking. It would get no extra MPs into Parliament on the coat-tails of Mana leader Hone Harawira keeping his Te Tai Tokerau seat – and even that is looking shaky.

Mr Dotcom has spent $4 million on setting up the party and funding the campaign.

The poll has the Conservatives on 3.3 per cent, and would not be in Parliament. It has yet to register over the 5 per cent threshold on any major political poll this election.

Today’s poll has National on 48.2 per cent, down a little from last week when the seven-day polling is totalled.. .

This is only one poll and it shows the race is still tight.

The Stuff/Ipsos shows an even tighter race:

Today’s Stuff.co.nz/Ipsos poll is almost a photo finish of the 2011 election result, which delivered a National government with a slender majority despite John Key’s near record popularity.

Click here to see full results

On today’s numbers, National is as popular as ever and would be back in business at the Beehive on Monday with a government that looks almost exactly like the last one.

But a turbulent few weeks on the campaign trail have made the result less certain and the electorate more volatile. The poll registers a big swing against National which, if carried through to tomorrow, could make the race much tighter.

So too could any stumble by John Key’s allies in the Maori seats or Ohariu, which would see the Maori Party and Peter Dunne out of Parliament.

The bad news for Labour is that the swing has mostly benefited NZ First and Colin Craig’s Conservatives, who have been jockeying for position in the Centre.

National blames that on strategic voting by its supporters wanting to get Conservatives over the line to give National coalition options. But NZ First may be just as likely picking up disaffected Labour voters. . .

This poll shows National on 47.7%; Labour on 26.1%; the Green Party on 12%; New Zealand First on 6.6%; Conservative party on 4.5% and Internet Mana on just .9%.

If this level of support carries through to the election we could still have a strong, stable National-led government.

But even a small swing away from National could leave us saddled with a weak Labour-led government cobbled together with the support of the Green and New Zealand First parties and whoever manages to get across the line with Internet Mana.

National has never taken the election result for granted and these polls will ensure that candidates and volunteers the length and breadth of the country will be continuing to work hard to ensure that when the polls close tomorrow they’ve done all they can to convince enough voters of the importance of keeping the government that’s working for New Zealand.

Whether that’s enough, won’t be known until the counting’s done.


Just in case you were wondering . . .

September 18, 2014

"Only


Don’t second guess polls

September 18, 2014

If you don’t want a National-led government you can vote for any party.

If you do want a National-led government then you must give your party vote to National.

Thanks for tuning in. MMP elections are always close. Only your Party Vote for National will keep the team that’s #Working4NZ. #Vote2014NZ

A man I phoned last night said he’d always been going to give Jacqui Dean his electorate vote but had been considering giving one of the wee parties his party vote. However, the closeness of the polls has convinced he can’t afford to do that if he wants a National-led government so he’s going to give two blue ticks.

He’s right. It’s the party vote that counts.

Give yours to National to provide it with the strongest possible position for post-election negotiations with potential partners.


Not good enough

July 28, 2014

Last night’s  ONE News/Colmar Brunton poll  continued the trend of National doing much better than labour and its potential coalition partners:

Less than two months from polling day National has stretched its lead over the centre left parties of Labour and the Greens.

National has climbed to 52% in the latest ONE News/Colmar Brunton poll while Labour is down one point to 28%. . .

Labour on 28% is just above its 2011 election result and the Greens have also slipped, dropping two points to 10%.

New Zealand First is steady on 4% and Internet Mana is on 2% while the Conservatives are up one to 2%. Act stays on 1% and the Maori Party is down one to 1%.

When converted into seats in Parliament, National would easily govern alone with 66 seats. Labour would have 36, with the Greens mustering 13 and the Maori Party three. Internet Mana would bring in three MP, while Act and United Future would have one apiece. . .

Both Labour and the Green party have lost support.

It’s possible that hard-line left voters have gone to Internet Mana and soft centre voters have been put-off by the thought of a Labour Green, New Zealand First, Internet Mana Party and have moved right.

This is good news for National and those who want the party to continue leading a government that is working well for New Zealand.

However, it’s not good enough.

The party was polling at similar levels before the last election and slipped.

One reason for that was low voter turn-out.

Labour thinks most of those who didn’t vote were their supporters but there was a disappointing number of National voters who didn’t vote for a variety of reasons, including thinking that the polls were so good they didn’t need to.

There is a danger that could happen again which is why all National candidates and their teams are working hard to maximise the party vote which is the one that counts for forming a government.


Two sides one message

July 21, 2014

Electoral law permitted election hoardings to be displayed from yesterday.

Alfred Ngaro’s National Party teams were so keen to paint the Te Atatu electorate blue they started at midnight.

Facebook and Twitter showed MPs, candidates and supporters the length and breadth of the country erecting hoardings and  enjoying themselves while doing it.

Labour teams could be forgiven for not being quite as happy in their work but that’s not the only contrast between the blue hoardings and the red ones.

The message from National is clear and consistent, the one, or should that be ones from Labour are not.

We passed this double-sided hoarding on the way home from Queenstown yesterday.

hoardings 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

hoardings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There’s two sides to the sign but a single message – party vote National.

Labour candidates are giving mixed messages – some are seeking the electorate vote over the party one, a lot of them – like those used in 2011 – don’t show their leader.

The contrast couldn’t be greater.

There are blue hoardings giving a consistent message of unity, support for party leader John Key, and  being quite clear that National wants your party vote. Then there are red ones giving mixed messages which show disunity and leave voters in doubt exactly what they’re being asked to do.

It’s the party vote that counts for forming a government.

National Party MPs and candidates are showing they not only want to be in parliament, they want to be in a John Key-led government.

But the hoardings of at least some Labour MPs show they’re more concerned about their own seats than the fate of their party – their desire to be in parliament is greater than that to have Labour in government.

If Labour MPs and candidates don’t care about the party vote, why would voters?


Need to enrol to vote

June 17, 2014

The Electoral Commission stand at Fieldays was busy encouraging people to enrol to vote.

It’s not hard to do, even if you’re overseas:

Are you a Kiwi living overseas? Have family living overseas? Find out how you can enrol and vote from anywhere in the world this election at www.national.org.nz/overseas.

Enrolling doesn’t compel you to vote national, of course, but it’s the best option for those wanting a country worth staying in or coming home to.


%d bloggers like this: