Election results

September 20, 2014

It’s 7pm, polling booths have closed.

Counting of advance votes started at 2pm and should be announced by 8:30.

My predictions (%):

National 48ish

Labour 22ish

Green Party 12ish

NZ First 5ish

Conservative Party 4ish

Maori Party 2ish

Act 2ish

IMP 1ish

United Future .5ish

Official results can be found here.

Predicted results from the Election Data Consortium are here.


September 20, 2014

I had to go to town this morning and passed three polling booths on the way.

I didn’t stop at any, instead I detoured out of my way on the return journey to the nearest one to where I live. There aren’t many country booths now and I thought I should use it lest we lose it.

It was busy – three people ahead of me and one behind, which is busy as country booths go.

The process so was easy I had to check my voting form three times to make sure I’d ticked the right boxes, I then folded the ballot paper, put it in the box and walked out stickerless.

I don’t know whether there were no stickers or whether the woman working there forgot to give me one, but I have voted even though I don’t have a sticker to prove it.

In praise of participation

September 20, 2014

Today is election day.

For candidates and parties it is the culmination of months of work – planning, fund raising, motivating and organising volunteers and campaigning.

For everyone who will become an MP tonight, there are many more who stood but won’t be successful.

All of them have played an important part in a democratic process and made sacrifices to do so.

Whatever they stood for and whatever their motivation for doing so, they will have made a big financial and personal commitment.

Campaigning is very hard work but it had to stop by midnight yesterday.

Today the work goes on with party members scrutineering, taking people to polling places and doing all they can to get out the vote among their supporters – without doing anything which could be construed as persuading people to vote for or against a particular party of candidate.

Now it’s up to us.

Many have already taken the opportunity to vote in advance.

I didn’t because I like the sense of occasion and community which comes from going to and being at a polling place on polling day and I will be voting today.

While doing so I will be grateful for the freedom to not only do so but do so in secret and with the knowledge that there are rigorous checks and balances in place to safeguard the integrity of the process.

I will also be grateful for everyone who has participated in the process in big ways and small. The more people who do that, the stronger the democracy.

Courting undecided dog lovers

September 19, 2014

Human hoardings are one way to court voters.

Today we enlisted the assistance of Jimmy for canine hoardings:


In case you’ve forgotten

September 19, 2014

We need another strong, stable National Government to keep turning that progress into more jobs and long term prosperity.

MMP elections are always close, even with the Opposition in disarray. Labour could still cobble together a government with the Greens, Dotcom, and New Zealand First. That would stall our economy and create economic chaos.

The only way to deliver another strong, stable National Government that will keep New Zealand moving in the right direction is to PARTY VOTE NATIONAL tomorrow.

Tell all your friends, family, whanau and work mates - Party Vote National. #Working4NZ #teamkey


Thanks for tuning in tonight. If you want a National Government, party vote National. #Decision14 #Working4NZ

Thanks for tuning in. MMP elections are always close. Only your Party Vote for National will keep the team that’s #Working4NZ. #Vote2014NZ



Poll of polls

September 19, 2014

Colin James’ final poll of polls:

National’s trends from 20 June and from 20 August to the latest interviewing midpoint of 15 September, projected forward five days to tomorrow, points towards around 47.5% on the final count. Take out 1%-1.5% to account for the overweighting of National by the Fairfax Ipsos poll by comparison with all others in most of its recent polling (but not the most recent): that would give 46%-46.5%.

The trends for Labour point to 25% and for the Greens to 12.5%-13% . . .

The latest polls took National’s lead over Labour and the Greens down to a still healthy 8.2%. . . .

New Zealand First’s latest average was 7.6%, the Conservatives’ 4.3%. Internet-Mana was down to 1.4%, the Maori party was 1.2% (just enough to ensure two seats), ACT was 0.4% and United Future 0.1%.

New Zealand First’s trend from 20 June points to 6.5%. But, since most of its rise was in the past six weeks, the trend from 20 August may be more accurate. It points to 7.5%. The same last-six-weeks upward tick applies for the Conservatives. Their trend from August 20 points to around 4.2%. Internet Mana’s downtrend points it toward 1.2%. . . .

There’s  no doubt National will be well ahead of Labour and the Greens combined but that doesn’t guarantee a National-led government.

This reinforced the need for anyone who wants stable government, a growing economy and the social dividends that enables, to give their party vote to National.
Photo: Only our plans will ensure a strong, open economy that delivers more for New Zealanders and their families. PARTY VOTE National. #Working4NZ

Don’t vote for chaos

September 19, 2014

The choice is clear: continuing stable government that’s working for New Zealand and New Zealanders or chaos:


If you’re not already convinced what any government beholden to Winston Peters would be like, listen to Guyon Espiner (at 7:18) attempting to get a straight answer from him.

New Zealand First is likely to get at least 5% of the vote. Labour’s weakness would give him strength.

The higher National’s party vote is, the stronger its negotiating position will be and the more stable the government will be.

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