Rural round-up: payout edition

August 8, 2015

Fonterra forecasts $3.85:

Fonterra suppliers will get a total possible payout of $4.85/kg of milksolids this season – but there’s a catch.

The farmgate milk price is $3.85/kg MS with a predicted dividend of 40-50 cents then an extra 50 cents for each fully shared kilogram giving a total of $4.85/kg MS.

But the extra 50 cents is a loan, interest-free for up to two years, which farmers will have to apply for. Farmers would have to pay the money back when the Farmgate Milk Price or Advance Rate went above $6/kg MS.

Shareholders’ Council Welcomes Fonterra Shareholder Support Package Announced as Milk Price Plummets:

Fonterra Shareholders’ Council Chairman, Duncan Coull said the Co-operatives unique position has enabled it to provide assistance to its farmers in these tough times. The announced support package in the form of an interest free loan of 50 cents per kgMS for production between June and December will help farmers get through the tough times ahead.

While Fonterra Farmers were expecting a drop in the forecast Milk Price (down $ 1.40 per kg/MS to $ 3.85) it does not make today’s announcement any easier to bear. The dividend forecast of 40 – 50 cents per share lifts the total available for payout to $4.25 – $ 4.35 per kgMs. The retention policy means that the forecast Cash Payout for the season would be in the range of $ 4.15 – $ 4.20 for a fully shared up farmer. . .

Interest-free loans soften payout hit – Fran O’Sullivan:

Fonterra’s top brass cooked up a $430 million parachute so that the dairy co-operative could offer farmers a cushion for yesterday’s brutal cut to the forecast milk payment.

Fonterra chief executive Theo Spierings and chief financial officer Lukas Paravicini began work on the deal five to six days ago along with a couple of the co-operative’s farmer directors.

The upshot was that the Fonterra board was able to yesterday tick off a plan to leverage savings from the company’s transformation project and pump them out to farmers in the form of interest free loans. . .

Plan – do more and work longer – Neal Wallace:

Gerald Holmes concedes he will be a grumpy employer this milking season.

The Taieri dairy farmer has been through downturns before and said the biggest change he will make on his 600-cow farm is to become more self-sufficient.

“It is easy to say no to everything regardless of how reasonable the expense is.”

Gone this season are the days of calling in a plumber, mechanic or electrician to repair equipment.  . .

Times just get tougher for dairy industry – Sally Rae:

”If it continues into next year, … it’s going to be ugly for a lot of people. There will be casualties eventually.”

That was the sobering response of Berwick dairy farmer Mark McLennan on a day dubbed ”Black Friday” for the dairy industry, with Fonterra slashing its 2015-16 forecast price to $3.85 per kg of milk solids, the lowest figure since 2002.

DairyNZ’s latest analysis showed an average farmer needed $5.40 per kg to break even. . .

Fonterra revises down milk price to $3.85 – Tao Lin  and Gerald Piddock:

Fonterra’s decision to slash the price it pays its farmers for milk solids will wipe $2.5 billion off the economy, an analyst says.

Fonterra has cut its milk price forecast to $3.85 per kilogram of milk solids, down from $5.25.

Fonterra has also announced it will provide an estimated $430 million in financial support for farmers to help them cope with the low payout. . .

It is tough down on the farm – Regan Schoultz:

Craig Maxwell, his wife Kathy, and their daughter Penelope have been living on their dairy farm in Paparimu just south of Auckland for 25 years.

It is a big part of who they are as people and a lot of time, blood and sweat has been poured into it.

News of Fonterra’s announcement, informing New Zealanders that the farmgate milk price is set at $3.85, is not welcome.

“It is obviously disappointing but not surprising,” he said. “Nobody is going to be shocked by that figure, but no one is going to be happy.” . .

Milk price drop will have big impact on rural communities:

Rural businesses, not just dairy farmers, will feel a big impact from Fonterra’s announcement today that its 2015-16 Forecast Farmgate Milk Price is reducing from $5.25 to $3.85, says industry body DairyNZ.

DairyNZ chief executive Tim Mackle says the drop means a further reduction of $150,000 for the average dairy farm income for this season. “The harsh reality of this announcement is that Fonterra farmers won’t actually receive $4.25-$4.35 because of the way the payment system works. It’s likely to be more like $3.65,” he says. (see graph below for more details)

“The effect on the level of payments over a season will keep farmers’ cash income constrained for at least the next 18 months and it will take some farmers many years to recover from these low milk prices. . .

Massive fluctations in milk price show NZ’s dairy model ‘flawed’, Landcorp boss Carden says – Paul McBeth:

 (BusinessDesk) – A $4.55 swing in the forecast milk price paid to farmers over two seasons shows there’s something wrong with New Zealand’s dairy model, which is centred around farmer-owned Fonterra Cooperative Group, and it needs to change, says Landcorp Farming chief executive Steve Carden.

Fonterra today slashed $1.40 from its forecast payout to farmers to $3.85 per kilogram of milk solids, below the 2015 season’s $4.40/kgMS and less than half the record $8.40/kgMS paid in 2014. A slump in global milk prices through the course of the year had markets primed for a reduced payout, and state-owned Landcorp, the country’s biggest farmer, was pleased to lock in as much as it could at Fonterra’s $5.25/kgMS guaranteed milk price for the current season.

Landcorp’s Carden said the Wellington-based state-owned enterprise had been anticipating a weak revision for a while, so today’s result wasn’t a surprise. . .

Government should fast-track rural infrastructure to assist dairy regions:

Federated Farmers wants the Government to fast-track its infrastructure projects in dairy regions to assist local economies through the downturn in dairy prices.

Fonterra has announced its forecast Farmgate Milk Price for 2015/16 of $3.85 per kilo of milk solids. In late July last year Fonterra’s forecast price was at $6 per kilo for the 2014/15 season.

Federated Farmers Dairy Spokesperson Andrew Hoggard says small scale rural service industries, such as engineering or contracting, in some instances might be hit harder than the dairy farmers they traditionally rely on for work. . .

‘Black Friday’ will mean huge debt for farmers – Emma Jolliff:

Today has been dubbed ‘Black Friday’ not just for dairy farmers, but the whole New Zealand economy.

Fonterra has slashed its forecast payout to farmers to $3.85 per kilogram of milk solids, which is well below the break-even rate of $5.70.

Economists say it could strip $1.5 billion or more out of the New Zealand economy.

Sally Bosch has been sharemilking for eight years.  She knew a drop in the payout was coming, but not one this big. . .

Farmers cashing up assets – Dene Mackenzie:

Otago dairy farmers are selling what they can to generate cash flow as they face up to an immediate prospect of lower milk payout prices for the next 18 months to two years.

Holiday homes, second cars and unneeded plant and equipment have been the first on the block but accountants contacted yesterday by the Otago Daily Times say more, harder decisions will need to be made by some farmers.

Fonterra will this afternoon announce what many expect to be a sharply downgraded milk payout forecast for the current season. . .

 

 

 


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