Colin James’s poll of polls:
. . . National’s slip leaves it still strong but also underlines the fact that it does not have the election in the bag.
But its problems are slight compared with Labour’s. Its latest average is below its 2011 election score of 27.5% and far below the 33.0% average at the end of 2013. To make matters worse, a Reid Research poll for Native Affairs on Maori TV showed the Maori party’s Chris McKenzie ahead in Te Tai Hauauru.
The Greens continued to be steady. Their latest four-poll average was 12.6%, which would net it 16 seats.
While party support is volatile, the most encouraging result is the continuing belief the country is going in the right direction.
The Maori Party has released its list for the 2014 election:
1. Te Ururoa Flavell (Waiariki)
2. Marama Fox (Ikaroa Rawhiti)
3. Chris McKenzie – Te Tai Hauauru
4. Te Hira Paenga (Te Tai Tokerau)
5. Ngaire Button (Te Tai Tonga)
6. Nancy Tuaine (Whanganui)
7. Tame Iti
8. Eraia Kiel
9. Anaru Kaipo (Whangarei)
10. Raewyn Bhana (Manurewa)
11. Rangimarie Naida Glavish
12. Aroha Reriti-Crofts (Waimakariri)
13. Hinurewa Te Hau (Upper Harbour)
14. Tom Phillips (Hunua)
15. Verna Ohia-Gate (Tauranga)
16. Ann Kendall (Papakura)
17. Hiria Pakinga (Coromandel)
18. Claire Winitana (Taupo)
19. Ra Smith (Wairarapa)
20. Lenis Davidson (Christchurch Central)
21. Tania Mataki (Christchurch East)
22. Sheryl Gardyne (Selwyn)
23. Te Whe Ariki Phillips (Wigram)
24. Benita Wakefield (Ilam)
Tama Iti is a long way from getting in on current polling but is a radical face for the party:
. . . Speaking in the home he built himself in Ruatoki, Iti said he had always supported the Maori Party and had decided to stand to boost the party’s support and because he endorsed the work it had done in government.
“Not very long ago I wouldn’t have thought about it but I see there’s more achievement…with National in terms of the treaty settlements so we have come a long way,” he said.
Having a Maori voice in power had led to gains in areas such as health and social services for Maori and it was important for Maori “to be sitting on the table rather than across the road throwing rocks at each other”. . .
Small parties generally get punished for supporting a government.
Their followers high, and unrealistic, expectations aren’t met. But Iti recognises that the party has made gains through its coalition agreement which would have been impossible in opposition.
Chris McKenzie has been selected to succeed Tariana Turia as the Maori party candidate for Te Tai Hauauru.
His work history includes being the lead Treaty of Waitangi settlement negotiator for Ngati Raukawa, a self-employed consultant, education manager at Raukawa Trust Board and teacher at Tokoroa High School.
He is a member of the Te Ohu Kaimoana electoral college and was the previous chair of the Raukawa Settlement Trust. . .
Turia formed the Maori Party when she left Labour over the Seabed and foreshore debacle.
His challenges is to transfer personal support from her to votes for him and the party.