Election outcome less certain

August 28, 2014

It was inevitable that polls would tighten as the election gets closer and last night’s 3 News Reid Research poll shows that’s happening:

August 19-25, 1000 people polled, margin of error 3.1 percent

National 45 percent, down 2.5 percent
Labour 26.4 percent, down 2.6 percent
Greens 13.5 percent, up 0.5 percent
NZ First 6.3 percent, up 1.7 percent
Conservative 4.6 percent, up 2.1 percent
Internet Mana 2.1 percent, up 0.1 percent
Maori Party 0.7 percent, down 0.1 percent
United Future 0.4 percent, up 0.2 percent
ACT 0.3 percent, no change

Seats in the house:

National 57
ACT 1
United Future 1
Maori Party 2
Right total: 61

Labour 33
Greens 17
Internet Mana 3
Left total: 53

NZ First 8

The Maori Party could go left or right.

But while it has voted against National more times than with it, the choice of being in a stable National-led government supported by Act, United Future and possibly New Zealand First would almost certainly be preferable to it than supporting an unstable Labour, Green, NZ First, Internet Mana coalition.

The Conservative Party is now in spitting distance of the 5% threshold.

Kiwiblog shows that if it makes it into parliament, Labour won’t be able to govern:

Conservatives 4.6%

Centre-Right 59 seats (Nat 57, ACT 1, UF1)

Centre-Left 53 seats (Lab 33, Greens 17, Internet Mana 3)

Centre 11 seats (NZ First 8, Maori 3)

This means National would need the Maori Party to govern, and Labour would need both NZ First and the Maori Party (plus Greens, Mana)

Conservatives 5.0%

Centre-Right 62 seats (Nat 54,  Conservatives 6, ACT 1, UF1)

Centre-Left 51 seats (Lab 32, Greens 16, Internet Mana 3)

Centre 11 seats (NZ First 8, Maori 3)

This means National would still need the Maori Party (or NZ First) to govern, but Labour would be unable to govern under any combination.

As another example of MMP’s perversity, National would have more seats if the Conservative Party didn’t make it into parliament but could be

more likely to govern if the Conservatives do cross the line because Labour wouldn’t be able to cobble together a coalition.


Only one poll counts

October 3, 2011

It’s a political truism that only one poll counts.

It’s another that the trend is a friend.

That last point might be true for National but it’s definitely not for Labour as the gap between the two parties continues to widen.

Last night’s ONE News Colmar Brunton poll has more poll woe for Labour and Goff:

National 56% steady; Labour 29% down 1%; Green Party 9% up 3%; NZ First 2% steady;  Act 1% down 1% ; Maori Party 1% steady; Mana Party 1% steady.

Assuming Act, Maori Party and United Future held electorate seats the make up of parliament would be: National 69; Labour 36; Green Party 11; Maori Party 4; Act 2; United Future NZ 1; Mana Party 1.

John Key has gone up 6 to 59% as preferred Prime Minister; Phil Goff is steady on 8%.

The 3 News Reid Research political poll has National with more than twice the support than Labour is attracting:

National up 3.5 to 57.4%; Labour down 2.2 to 26.6%; Green party up .5 to 9.8%; NZ First down .3 to 1.9%; Act down .6% to 1.6%, Maori Party down .7 to .8%; Mana steady on .7% and United Future steady on nothing.

Key attracts 54.5% support as preferred Prime Minister in contrast to just 6.2% support for Goff.

Polling was done before the news of ratings downgrades broke.


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