Final count – Nats lose seat, MMP stays

10/12/2011

National has lost an MP in the final election result.

Aaron Gilmore was the last on the list to gain a seat on election night. He lost that at the expense of the Green Party which gained an MP, Mojo Mathers, our first deaf MP.

Polling Places Counted: 6,660 of 6,660 (100.0%)
Total Votes Counted: 2,257,336
Party Party Votes % Votes Electorate Seats List Seats Total Seats
National Party 1,058,638 47.31 41 18 59
Labour Party 614,936 27.48 23 11 34
Green Party 247,370 11.06 0 14 14
New Zealand First Party 147,544 6.59 0 8 8
Māori Party 31,982 1.43 3 0 3
Mana 24,168 1.08 1 0 1
ACT New Zealand 23,889 1.07 1 0 1
United Future 13,443 0.60 1 0 1
Conservative Party 59,236 2.65 0 0 0
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 11,738 0.52 0 0 0
Democrats for Social Credit 1,714 0.08 0 0 0
Libertarianz 1,595 0.07 0 0 0
Alliance 1,209 0.05 0 0 0
70 51 121

Nicky Wagner has gained the Christchurch Central seat with a majority of 45 votes over Brendon Burns and Carmel Sepuloni has won Waitakere by 11 votes from Paula Bennett.

Prime Minsiter has the highest majority – 21,066 followed by Amy Adams on 19,451, Simon O’Connor with 17, 786 and Tony Ryall with a majority of 17,760.

All winners and their majorities are:

Electorate Result Winning Candidate 2nd Place Margin
Auckland Central 100.0% KAYE, Nikki (NAT) ARDERN, Jacinda (LAB) 717
Bay of Plenty 100.0% RYALL, Tony (NAT) DEVOY-HEENA, Carol (LAB) 17,760
Botany 100.0% ROSS, Jami-Lee (NAT) WU, Chao-Fu (LAB) 10,741
Christchurch Central 100.0% WAGNER, Nicky (NAT) BURNS, Brendon (LAB) 45
Christchurch East 100.0% DALZIEL, Lianne (LAB) GILMORE, Aaron (NAT) 5,334
Clutha-Southland 100.0% ENGLISH, Bill (NAT) LOO, Tat (LAB) 16,168
Coromandel 100.0% SIMPSON, Scott (NAT) KININMONTH, Hugh (LAB) 12,740
Dunedin North 100.0% CLARK, David (LAB) WOODHOUSE, Michael (NAT) 3,489
Dunedin South 100.0% CURRAN, Clare (LAB) HAYES, Joanne (NAT) 4,175
East Coast 100.0% TOLLEY, Anne (NAT) MACKEY, Moana (LAB) 4,774
East Coast Bays 100.0% McCULLY, Murray (NAT) GOLDSMITH, Vivienne (LAB) 14,641
Epsom 100.0% BANKS, John (ACT) GOLDSMITH, Paul (NAT) 2,261
Hamilton East 100.0% BENNETT, David (NAT) ORGAD, Sehai (LAB) 8,275
Hamilton West 100.0% MACINDOE, Tim (NAT) MORONEY, Sue (LAB) 4,418
Helensville 100.0% KEY, John (NAT) GREENBROOK-HELD, Piers Jeremy (LAB) 21,066
Hunua 100.0% HUTCHISON, Paul (NAT) HILLS, Richard (LAB) 16,797
Hutt South 100.0% MALLARD, Trevor (LAB) QUINN, Paul (NAT) 4,825
Ilam 100.0% BROWNLEE, Gerry (NAT) PARSONS, John (LAB) 13,312
Invercargill 100.0% ROY, Eric (NAT) SOPER, Lesley (LAB) 6,263
Kaikōura 100.0% KING, Colin (NAT) COLLYNS, Liz (LAB) 11,445
Mana 100.0% FAAFOI, Kris (LAB) PARATA, Hekia (NAT) 2,230
Māngere 100.0% SIO, Sua William (LAB) HAUITI, Claudette (NAT) 15,159
Manukau East 100.0% ROBERTSON, Ross (LAB) BAKSHI, Kanwaljit Singh (NAT) 15,838
Manurewa 100.0% WALL, Louisa (LAB) CALDER, Cam (NAT) 8,610
Maungakiekie 100.0% LOTU-IIGA, Peseta Sam (NAT) BEAUMONT, Carol (LAB) 3,021
Mt Albert 100.0% SHEARER, David (LAB) LEE, Melissa (NAT) 10,021
Mt Roskill 100.0% GOFF, Phil (LAB) BLUE, Jackie (NAT) 7,271
Napier 100.0% TREMAIN, Chris (NAT) NASH, Stuart (LAB) 3,701
Nelson 100.0% SMITH, Nick (NAT) STREET, Maryan (LAB) 7,088
New Lynn 100.0% CUNLIFFE, David (LAB) GROSER, Tim (NAT) 5,190
New Plymouth 100.0% YOUNG, Jonathan (NAT) LITTLE, Andrew (LAB) 4,270
North Shore 100.0% BARRY, Maggie (NAT) CLARK, Ben (LAB) 15,228
Northcote 100.0% COLEMAN, Jonathan (NAT) GILLON, Paula (LAB) 9,379
Northland 100.0% SABIN, Mike (NAT) STEWART, Lynette (LAB) 11,362
Ōhariu 100.0% DUNNE, Peter (UFNZ) CHAUVEL, Charles (LAB) 1,392
Ōtaki 100.0% GUY, Nathan (NAT) FOSTER, Peter (LAB) 5,231
Pakuranga 100.0% WILLIAMSON, Maurice (NAT) KAUSHAL, Sunny (LAB) 13,846
Palmerston North 100.0% LEES-GALLOWAY, Iain (LAB) HAPETA, Leonie (NAT) 3,285
Papakura 100.0% COLLINS, Judith (NAT) MIKA, Jerome (LAB) 9,890
Port Hills 100.0% DYSON, Ruth (LAB) CARTER, David (NAT) 3,097
Rangitata 100.0% GOODHEW, Jo (NAT) BLANCHARD, Julian (LAB) 6,537
Rangitīkei 100.0% McKELVIE, Ian (NAT) PAGANI, Josie (LAB) 9,382
Rimutaka 100.0% HIPKINS, Chris (LAB) FLETCHER, Jonathan (NAT) 3,286
Rodney 100.0% MITCHELL, Mark (NAT) CRAIG, Colin (CNSP) 12,222
Rongotai 100.0% KING, Annette (LAB) FINLAYSON, Christopher (NAT) 9,047
Rotorua 100.0% McCLAY, Todd (NAT) CHADWICK, Steve (Stephanie) (LAB) 7,357
Selwyn 100.0% ADAMS, Amy (NAT) McLEAN, Jo (LAB) 19,451
Tāmaki 100.0% O’CONNOR, Simon (NAT) BAKULICH, Nick Iusitini (LAB) 17,786
Taranaki-King Country 100.0% ARDERN, Shane (NAT) BARKER, Rick (LAB) 15,089
Taupō 100.0% UPSTON, Louise (NAT) CAMPBELL, Frances (LAB) 14,115
Tauranga 100.0% BRIDGES, Simon (NAT) MAHUTA-COYLE, Deborah (LAB) 17,264
Te Atatū 100.0% TWYFORD, Phil (LAB) HENARE, Tau (NAT) 5,416
Tukituki 100.0% FOSS, Craig (NAT) HAYDON-CARR, Julia (LAB) 9,660
Waikato 100.0% TISCH, Lindsay (NAT) SUTTON, Kate (LAB) 14,198
Waimakariri 100.0% WILKINSON, Kate (NAT) COSGROVE, Clayton (LAB) 642
Wairarapa 100.0% HAYES, John (NAT) BOTT, Michael (LAB) 7,135
Waitakere 100.0% SEPULONI, Carmel (LAB) BENNETT, Paula (NAT) 11
Waitaki 100.0% DEAN, Jacqui (NAT) MONKS, Barry (LAB) 14,143
Wellington Central 100.0% ROBERTSON, Grant (LAB) FOSTER-BELL, Paul (NAT) 6,376
West Coast-Tasman 100.0% O’CONNOR, Damien (LAB) AUCHINVOLE, Chris (NAT) 2,539
Whanganui 100.0% BORROWS, Chester (NAT) McDOUALL, Hamish (LAB) 5,046
Whangarei 100.0% HEATLEY, Phil (NAT) NEWMAN, Pat (LAB) 12,447
Wigram 100.0% WOODS, Megan (LAB) COLLINS, Sam (NAT) 1,500
Hauraki-Waikato 100.0% MAHUTA, Nanaia (LAB) GREENSILL, Angeline (MANA) 5,935
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti 100.0% HOROMIA, Parekura (LAB) RAIHANIA, Na (MAOR) 6,541
Tāmaki Makaurau 100.0% SHARPLES, Pita (MAOR) JONES, Shane (LAB) 936
Te Tai Hauāuru 100.0% TURIA, Tariana (MAOR) PEKE-MASON, Soraya Waiata (LAB) 3,221
Te Tai Tokerau 100.0% HARAWIRA, Hone Pani Tamati Waka Nene (MANA) DAVIS, Kelvin (LAB) 1,165
Te Tai Tonga 100.0% TIRIKATENE, Rino (LAB) KĀTENE, Rāhui (MAOR) 1,475
Waiariki 100.0% FLAVELL, Te Ururoa James (MAOR) SYKES, Annette Te Imaima (MANA) 1,883

Kiwiblog has the figures on the demographics of the new parliament.

MMP was confirmed with  57.77% suport and 42.24% voting for change.


Only one poll counts

27/11/2011

Only one poll counts and yesterday’s wasn’t quite what the polls forecast.

But that’s because the headlines and focus go on decided voters.

With around 15% of voters undecided a couple of days before the election it was unlikely that National would get more than 50%.

In 2002 a lot of swinging voters who weren’t going to support Labour decided National couldn’t win and spread their votes around Act, United Future and New Zealand First.

This time voters who weren’t going to support National decided Labour couldn’t win could have gone to the Green Party but as usually happens it didn’t do as well as polls predicted it might.

They might have gone to Mana, the Maori Party or United Future but instead those disaffected voters went to New Zealand First or didn’t vote at all.

The turn-out was only  73.2  of enrolled voters and 68% of the eligible population which is very low by New Zealand standards

Interestingly Horizon, the only poll which says it’s reflecting decided voters was the least reliable indicator of what actually happened.

Kiwiblog had a summary of polls on Friday:


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