It is bad enough that so many people believe things without any evidence. What is worse is that some people have no conception of evidence and regard facts as just someone else's opinion.
— Thomas Sowell Quotes (@ThomasSowell) March 14, 2022
Principles vs politics
23/03/2022Labour’s election commitment to climate change was supposed to be its nuclear-free moment.
File that along with child poverty, Kiwibuild and so many other grand promises that have been followed by little, if any, progress.
The carbon tax on fuel was supposed to encourage people to use less. The steep increase in oil prices recently ought to have reinforced that.
But National leader Chris Luxon hit the target when he spoke about a cost of living crisis and the government folded.
Its poll-driven decision to reduce the excise tax on petrol, at least for three months, shows what happens when principles meet politics.
It illustrates the problem with so many policies that are supposed to address climate change – they impose too high economic and social costs to be politically acceptable. Too often they have little if any positive impact on the environment and sometimes they make it worse.
European countries are back peddling quickly from their decisions to get rid of coal and nuclear power plants because its left them too reliant on Russia’s gas.
Labour’s rush towards greener power has left us reliant on imported coal that is dirtier than the local fuel we’re no longer permitted to mine.
Its ute-tax achieves nothing because of the way the ETS works and its insistence on a carbon tax on fuel has been undermined by the excise tax cut.
Worse, still, Matt Burgess explains the government’s emissions reduction policies are based on the pretence of necessity:
At May’s Budget, the government will commit $4.5 billion to new spending on climate change, more than $2,000 per household. The government will also deliver its Emissions Reduction Plan, an array of levies, subsidies, regulations and hard bans. The government will say these interventions are necessary and that they will help deliver emissions targets.
Neither claim is true. Existing policies already have New Zealand firmly on track to deliver statutory emissions targets. Parliament has committed to reduce net emissions of greenhouse gases. Legislation defines net emissions as gross emissions (for example, from car exhausts) minus offsets (for example, the carbon captured by trees, co-operation with other countries). Offsets are recognised in domestic law and international agreements. They are affordable and available in effectively unlimited quantities.
These facts secure emissions targets. Regardless of how much or how little existing policies including the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) lower emissions, offsets will bridge the gap to targets. New Zealand is not in a position of having to resort to desperate measures to meet its climate change obligations. This country can make reasonable or best efforts to lower net emissions with existing policies and be certain
of success.
Accordingly, further policies are not necessary. We have options. The government could choose not to add thousands of dollars to the cost of imported vehicles from next month with its Feebate policy and be certain of delivering our obligations. Agriculture could stay outside the ETS indefinitely while the country reaches net zero emissions. Only by overlooking offsets can the government maintain the fiction that drastic further actions are necessary. The government bears the burden of proof to show how its new policies improve on existing policies.
Even if existing policies were not enough to reach targets, the government’s strategy would not help. The government has already capped greenhouse gases. Changes to the ETS in 2020 introduced a quantity cap. The new cap will be a sinking lid on emissions, set to fall in line with targets. It is well known that policies cannot reduce emissions from under an emissions cap. Cap-and-trade schemes like the ETS effectively neutralise other emissions policies. Where a policy lowers a sector’s emissions, the sector will buy fewer emissions permits. That leaves more permits for others, meaning higher emissions elsewhere. Overall emissions do not change. New Zealand has one of the most comprehensive ETSs in the world. Nearly all of the government’s policies will be neutralised – regardless of whether existing policies are enough.
The government’s vast new spending on climate change policies could reduce emissions by zero tonnes. If this were business, it would be fraud.
Whether or not the government can be accused of fraud, that is scandalous.
This report reviews the government’s climate change strategy. The strategy is based on a misunderstanding of the relationship between the ETS and other policies. The government is pushing its disruptive policies by misconstruing the legislation and by ignoring every feasible alternative. Officials have mostly abandoned cost-benefit analysis; they reject cost and effectiveness as primary goals; they believe climate policies should manage inequality and historic grievances as well as reduce emissions; emissions policies are rarely checked after they are launched; and poor performance is rarely corrected. It is not surprising that policies regularly spend 20 times more than the ETS to abate each tonne of emissions.
We are witnessing an historic public policy failure. Later this year, when the government delivers its new policies, it will call its policies “necessary” or “vital.” This is the pretence of necessity. It is cover for policies that could not survive any test of their merits. After all, there can be no case for expensive, ineffective, and often regressive policies if they are not needed.
It would be difficult, if not impossible, to mount a case for expensive, ineffective and often regressive policies if they are needed.
Inflicting them on us when they aren’t, is bad politics based on flawed principles.
It’s a very bad example of must do something and be seen to be doing it policy on the theory that doing something is better than doing nothing, even when in this case, it isn’t. It’s merely virtue signalling to the green zealots here and abroad.
Like far too many other supposedly green policies it unbalances the three-legged sustainability stool – cutting off the economic and social legs leaving the environmental one that superficially looks strong but will not support the weight of science.
The full report Pretence of Necessity is here.
Word of the day
22/03/2022Announcing announcement of changes sometime
22/03/2022Has there ever been a government as practiced at announcing announcements as this one?
Cabinet has made a decision about changing the country’s Covid-19 rules, but Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says the decision won’t be announced until Wednesday. . .
Earlier in the pandemic, it became common for these press briefings to include major announcements about alert level shifts. But ahead of Monday’s Cabinet meeting, Ardern said its decision about the future of Covid-19 restrictions wouldn’t be revealed until Wednesday.
The Government was expected to loosen Covid-19 restrictions, as the Omicron outbreak appeared to reach its peak in Auckland.
During Monday’s press conference, Ardern said the Government would detail changes to vaccine passes and mandates on Wednesday.
She said this would give everyone “plenty of time to prepare”.
“There is literally no-one that will be impacted by us taking those extra 48 hours, because the changes aren’t immediate,” Ardern said.
The two-day wait was needed, she said, to sort out orders and prepare clear information.
“Over the next 48 hours, there is some additional pieces of work we need to finalise. We will be updating guidance, preparing orders, and ironing out some final details, to ensure everything is as straightforward as possible,” she said. . .
At first glance that appears to be reasonable. A deeper look begs the question – why hadn’t all the updating, preparing and ironing out been done already?
Unless the government thought it could keep us tied up in the yellow tape of Covid restrictions forever, Ministers, their advisors and the relevant agencies would have known that sooner or later the tapes would be loosened and ought to have been preparing for that long before now.
The announcement on Wednesday would be focused on the future of the Covid-19 response rather than enacting immediate changes, Ardern said. . .
That means that tomorrow’s announcement foretold in yesterday’s announcement wont be an announcement of impending freedom but of more of the restrictions we’ve got for who knows how much longer.
In the meantime businesses are failing, jobs are being lost, babies are missing out on the socialisation which is essential for healthy development . . .
The government and its modelers have done such a good job of keeping us fearful that there will no doubt be some who prefer the restrictions.
Even if the yellow tape was loosened some, perhaps many, would continue to do what they consider is necessary to keep themselves and others safe from infection.
How long before we get an announcement that we’ll be trusted to do that rather than carrying on with no choice and growing frustration over some of the restrictions and requirements that no longer make sense?
Word of the day
21/03/2022Intervert – to turn to a course or use other than the proper one; to put something to another use, to divert effort elsewhere; misuse, especially embezzle; change, invert.
Rural round-up
21/03/2022Dwindling world milk production looks set to support buoyant global dairy commodity prices over coming months, but with the Russia-Ukraine conflict creating a wave of uncertainty in markets, the longer-term pricing outlook remains much less clear, Rabobank says in a recently-released report.
In its “Global Dairy Quarterly Q1 2022: How high for how long?”,the agribusiness banking specialist says weather-related issues, high or rising production costs and lingering disruptions from Covid-19 resulted in milk production growth faring worse than previously anticipated in the final quarter of 2021.
“These challenges have impacted dairy farmers from all the key production regions around the world, and among the “Big 7” dairy exporters – New Zealand, Australia, the EU, the US, Uruguay, Brazil and Argentina — production is now expected to fall by 0.7 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2022,” Rabobank senior agricultural analyst Emma Higgins said. . .
Vegetable prices tipped to go higher due to spiraling costs :
Horticulture New Zealand says vegetable prices will continue to increase if the Government does not support growers to find ways to reduce the costs of growing.
‘There is a crisis developing in commercial vegetable production in New Zealand. Input costs have soared over the past 12 months, not the least being the cost of fuel,’ says HortNZ President, Barry O’Neil.
‘Reducing petrol excise duty by 25 cents a litre and road user charges for three months is a positive step for most New Zealanders. However, this has no impact on the significant increase in the cost of diesel for use on the farm, orchard or market garden.
‘Between December 2021 and March 2022, the cost of diesel has increased from $1.67 a litre to $2.41 a litre. . .
Young Waikato Dairy Award winners see value in judges views :
The major winners in the 2022 Waikato Dairy Industry Awards are a young couple who believe that progression is possible and your limits are only what you perceive.
Brian Basi and Rachel Bunnik were announced winners of the region’s Share Farmer of the Year category at the Waikato Dairy Industry Awards annual awards dinner held at Claudelands Event Centre on Monday evening. The other big winners were Andrew Macky, who became the 2022 Waikato Dairy Manager of the Year, and Edward Roskam, the 2022 Waikato Dairy Trainee of the Year.
Brian and Rachel are contract milkers for Dick and Liz Johnson on their 72ha, 230-cow Putaruru property for the past two seasons. They won $14,828 in prizes and four merit awards.
Brian placed in the top five in the same category last year and believes judges analysing their overall farming business and performance was a key benefit of the awards programme. . .
Varroa increasingly responsible for NZ bee colony losses :
New Zealand beekeepers have reported varroa to be the most common reason for over-wintering hive losses for the first time, according to the recently released NZ Colony Loss Survey.
The 2021 Survey found varroa was responsible for nearly 40% of all losses. This marks a change in the primary cause, with queen problems having consistently been attributed as the key reason for colony losses in the past six years of the survey.
The Survey noted that an estimated 5.3% of all living colonies were lost to varroa and related complications over the 2021 winter, significantly higher than the 1.6% recorded just five years ago.
Beekeepers surveyed reported a number of reasons for the losses due to varroa; including reinvasion post treatment and timing issues with treatments. Nineteen percent believed their varroa losses were due to ineffective products. . .
Australia’s biggest customer pressured to give kangaroo products the boot – Chris McLennan:
Australia’s biggest export market for kangaroos has the jitters.
There is a big push from the Netherlands for the European Union to give Aussie roo products the boot now free trade talks have begun.
The EU is our biggest market for kangaroo meat and leather worth about $130 million annually.
Traditionally the light and strong kangaroo leather has been highly valued by sporting apparel companies. . .
Spring Sheep Milk Co wins Company-X Innovation Award:
and the Company-X Innovation Awards goes to . . . the Spring Sheep Milk Co.
The smart Kiwi business began in 2015 and now sources sheep milk from 12,700 grass-fed Zealandia sheep, its own breed, from dedicated farms across the Central North Island.
The milk is spray-dried into powder at Waikato Innovation Park at Ruakura in Hamilton and is used to create high-value nutrition products. Its early life nutrition range, including Gentle Sheep Toddler Milk Drink and nutrition powders are sold in China, Malaysia and New Zealand. Sheep milk is one of the most nutritious milks available and may be helpful for people with stomach or digestion intolerances.
Grass-fed New Zealand sheep milk is one of the highest quality milks available in the world and is clinically proven to be more easily digested and absorbed than cow’s milk, making it the ideal base for premium nutrition products. . .
Rules no longer serve purpose
21/03/2022Shh, not sure if we’re supposed to publicise this when the government didn’t, but unvaccinated New Zealanders and others eligible to travel here can now come without having to go through MIQ:
The Government’s quiet move to allow unvaccinated New Zealand citizens and other travellers back into the country is welcome, but further calls into question their Traffic Light Framework, National’s Covid-19 spokesperson Chris Bishop says.
“National welcomes the Government’s move to abolish restrictions on the unvaccinated entering New Zealand, but questions why it randomly plonked on the MIQ website at the end of a three-week Parliamentary sitting block, with no Ministerial announcement.
“This is a significant change to New Zealand’s border and the Government’s reluctance to publicise it is very odd, especially when we have daily 1pm announcements.
For two years Covid-19 announcements have been made from the podium of truth with all the attendant publicity. SImply placing this one on the Ministry website begs the question – why so stealthy?
“There is also confusion about what precisely the Government’s announcement means, including whether it applies just to citizens or also includes permanent residents and other visa holders. That’s what the website says, but the Order has not been published, meaning people can’t study the actual legal words. This is a big mess.
“Perhaps the reason the Government doesn’t want to publicise the change is that it calls into question their Traffic Light Framework. If you don’t have to be vaccinated to enter New Zealand now, why are there so many rules and restrictions on the unvaccinated who are actually in the country?
“It’s time to phase out vaccine mandates, abolish vaccine passes and end the confusing Traffic Light Framework. Omicron has changed the game and the rules no longer make any sense.”
One rule that makes no sense now is businesses having to display the QR code and signing sheets for contact tracing when no contact tracing is being done.
I’ve been dutifully scanning in but am wondering why I’m bothering when nothing would be done with it if I tested positive.
It’s been a very long two years and while the risk of contracting Omicron is real, having rules that no longer serve a purpose is prolonging the hassles.
Keeping rules we don’t need will also erode compliance with any that are still needed.
And changing rules by stealth as has been done with ending MIQ for unvaccinated returnees makes it look like the government doesn’t want to be questioned on the reason for this rule change and no change for others.
Word of the day
20/03/2022Quodlibet – a topic for or exercise in philosophical or theological discussion; a philosophical or theological point proposed for disputation; a subtle or elaborate argument or point of debate, usually on a theological or scholastic subject; a light-hearted medley of well-known tunes; a musical composition that combines several different melodies; a light piece of music based on two or more popular tunes.
Achieving Perspective
20/03/2022
ACHIEVING PERSPECTIVE
by Pattiann Rogers
Straight up away from this road,
Away from the fitted particles of frost
Coating the hull of each chick pea,
And the stiff archer bug making its way
In the morning dark, toe hair by toe hair,
Up the stem of the trillium,
Straight up through the sky above this road right now,
The galaxies of the Cygnus A cluster
Are colliding with each other in a massive swarm
Of interpenetrating and exploding catastrophes.
I try to remember that.
And even in the gold and purple pretense
Of evening, I make myself remember
That it would take 40,000 years full of gathering
Into leaf and dropping, full of pulp splitting
And the hard wrinkling of seed, of the rising up
Of wood fibers and the disintegration of forests,
Of this lake disappearing completely in the bodies
Of toad slush and duckweed rock,
40,000 years and the fastest thing we own,
To reach the one star nearest to us.
And when you speak to me like this,
I try to remember that the wood and cement walls
Of this room are being swept away now,
Molecule by molecule, in a slow and steady wind,
And nothing at all separates our bodies
From the vast emptiness expanding, and I know
We are sitting in our chairs
Discoursing in the middle of the blackness of space.
And when you look at me
I try to recall that at this moment
Somewhere millions of miles beyond the dimness
Of the sun, the comet Biela, speeding
In its rocks and ices, is just beginning to enter
The widest arc of its elliptical turn.
Hat tip: The Marginalian
Sunday soapbox
20/03/2022Sunday’s soapbox is yours to use as you will – within the bounds of decency and absence of defamation. You’re welcome to look back or forward, discuss issues of the moment, to pontificate, ponder or point us to something of interest, to educate, elucidate or entertain, amuse, bemuse or simply muse, but not abuse.
When every benefit received is a right, there is no place for good manners, let alone gratitude. – Theodore Dalrymple
Word of the day
19/03/2022Etterath – the feeling of emptiness after a long and arduous process is finally complete—having finished school, recovered from surgery, or gone home at the end of your wedding—which leaves you relieved that it’s over but missing the stress that organized your life into a mission.
Hat tip: The Dictionary of Obscure Sorrows
Posted by homepaddock 

