Too early to get excited but . . .

The latest Roy Morgan poll putsOpposition parties ahead of ahead of Labour and the Greens.

Support for New Zealand’s Labour/Greens ‘coalition’ government was down 3.5% points to 46.5% in November as support for the Labour Party dropped 3.5% points to 36%. Support for the Greens was unchanged at 10.5%. This is the lowest level of support for Labour since the election of the Jacinda Ardern-led Government in October 2017 with 36.9% of the vote.

For the first time since the election support for the Parliamentary Opposition National/ Act NZ/ Maori Party has now overtaken the Government at 47% in November, up 3% points since October. However, it is worth noting there is no formal agreement between these three opposition parties.

While the Maori Party is counted as opposition the likelihood of it supporting National and Act in government is slight.

Support rose for all three opposition parties with National up 0.5% points to 26.5%, Act NZ up 1.5% points to a new record high of 17.5% and support for the Maori Party hitting its highest for over five years since January 2016, up 1% point to 3%. . . 

It’s too early to get excited, but this poll does follow the trend of other recent ones with the government losing popularity and National and Act gaining.

That has mostly been due to a surge is support for Act.

Now that National has a new leader, it will almost certainly become more popular.

Some people who moved to Act may swap to National, but that won’t help the centre right become the government.

The challenge is to regain those voters who moved left in such numbers in last years election and thereby increase the centre right support.

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