New modelling prepared for the Government by Shaun Hendy suggests that New Zealand could see up to 7000 Covid-19 deaths a year even with a high proportion of the population jabbed.
The modelling from Te Pūnaha Matatini suggests that if 80 per cent of those aged five or over were fully vaccinated – around 75 per cent of the entire country – Covid-19 would still cause a serious death toll without other restrictions.
Hendy projects it could cause just under 60,000 hospitalisations and just under 7000 deaths over a one-year period. . .
The worry wouldn’t just be the deaths but the overloading of the health system which would mean more people would be more seriously ill with other conditions and more would die as a result of delayed treatment.
But there’s no need to be as fearful as the government appears to want us to be if, like Heather du Plessis-Allan, we look at what’s happened elsewhere:
You don’t need a model… you can just look at Singapore.
Same population size as NZ, vaccination rate over that 80% mark now, not seeing 7000 deaths a year.
They’ve had 16 in the last month.
According to Hendy’s model they should’ve recorded 540 in the last month alone.
I could run you through any number of countries with high vax rates that are not recording anything like the level of deaths that Hendy is predicting.
in fact, even if you wanted to ignore real life and stick to comparisons between models, take a look at what the models across the Tasman are predicting and you’ll find Hendy an alarmist.
One is predicting 26 deaths a year across Australia.
Even the worst-case scenarios I can find come nowhere near the predictions Hendy’s making. . .
She isn’t the only one to question Hendy’s numbers:
. . . Covid-19 modeller Rodney Jones, who has also provided modelling and advice to the Government, said real-world experience in countries with reasonably high vaccination rates showed there was unlikely to be that many deaths and the Government “didn’t need to scare New Zealanders into getting vaccinated”.
The Government released the modelling from Te Pūnaha Matatini on Thursday showing how much various vaccination rates would protect New Zealand.
It suggested that even with a vaccination rate of 80 per cent of those aged 5 or over – 75 per cent of the whole country – New Zealand could still see close to 7000 deaths a year from Covid-19, and an over-loaded healthcare system.
Jones said this didn’t pass the “plausibility test” when compared to real-world results in other countries.
“That is 140 deaths a week. Singapore has had 11 deaths with just under 80 per cent vaccinated over the last month,” Jones said. (Singapore has a similar population to New Zealand.)
“If you’re going to use this model in this way it should be peer-reviewed by global experts.”
“It’s absolutely unconvincing – it really needs to be reworked.”
Jones said the country didn’t need to be scared into getting vaccinated with talk of high death tolls.
“We need a positive story. The evidence is that negative takes and the use of fear does not get people vaccinated,” Jones said.
“I just think it’s not helpful to put a model out like this at this point. We need to look to 2022 with confidence.”
Jones said a realistic goal of 80 per cent of the total population – about five percentage points higher than the point that Hendy said could cause 7000 deaths – was realistic and “the evidence is we will get fantastic results at that level”. . .
I don’t watch or listen to the 1pm
party political broadcasts sermons from the podium of truth but they attract a very high audience.
How would all those people, many of them still locked
up down in Auckland, many already feeling fragile, feel hearing the need for an unrealistically high target of 90% vaccinated and the dire predictions should that not be reached?
Would it prompt anyone who hadn’t had, or booked to have, a vaccine to get vaccinated?
It might have worked for those who just hadn’t got round to it, but what good would piling fear on top of the fears those fearful of the vaccine already have?
The government has been ruling by fear ever since it grabbed hold of the Covid-19 agenda.
That’s not showing the kindness it preaches. It might have worked at first, but using scare tactics like Hendy’s modelling is unnecessary and cruel.
I have been double vaccinated and will get a booster should that be recommended and available. I think that anyone who could be vaccinated should be, but by choice not by coercion or driven by fear.
There are far better ways for the government to get more people to get vaccinated than scaring them into it.
It should also be doing everything it can to fix the multitude of problems which make health services and hospitals vulnerable, with or without Covid-19.
The Government’s appointment of board members to head up its ill-timed and ideologically-driven health system restructure shows how out of step it is on the chronic issues currently affecting New Zealand’s health system, says National’s Health spokesperson Dr Shane Reti.
“The Government’s costly distraction with restructuring the health system in the middle of a pandemic may explain why our Intensive Care Units were under-prepared and why Auckland is still in Level 3 lockdown.
“The Government has so far spent $38 million on 78 Wellington bureaucrats and another $4.3 million on 21 Ernst & Young consultants to plan the restructure project. This money could have been used to pay a premium, as other countries did, to get the Pfizer vaccine into New Zealand much more quickly.
“The Government should be focusing on the 62,000 cancelled procedures, including for people with cancer, right now rather than progressing health restructuring during a pandemic. . .
Initiatives that would empower us to look after ourselves should Covid-19 continue to spread, or resurface, in the community would also help lessen the threat of widespread disease and over burdened hospitals.
Ending the government’s ban on self-testing Covid-19 kits that are being used successfully in other countries would be a good start.
But perhaps the government prefers to keep us scared and submissive.