Word of the day

Waits – band of musicians who go around the streets at Christmas, singing and playing carols; street singers of Christmas carols; official bands of musicians maintained by a city or town; stays or remains in anticipation of an arrival or event.

Away In A Manger

Rural round-up

Regional economies: agriculture strong, tourism struggling:

Regions with large agricultural bases have surging regional economies while those which relied heavily on tourism were struggling.

The latest quarterly figures from Westpac McDermott Miller showed that Gisborne/Hawkes Bay have recorded a huge bounce in confidence, followed by Nelson-Marlborough-West Coast and Taranaki/Manawatū-Whanganui.

It showed the “optimists now outweighed the pessimists” in most regions, except in Northland, Otago and Southland – although the news was not entirely grim for the southern regions which had been hard-hit by the Covid-19 linked downturn.

Senior agri economist Nathan Penny said the bounce in confidence for most regions was a reflection of the general rebound in the economy, helped by news of positive vaccine developments overseas. . . 

Milk price forecast boosted by banks – Sally Rae:

Rabobank and ASB have both increased their farm-gate milk price forecasts to $7 for the 2020-21 season, following an improving dairy outlook.

Prices edged up again at last week’s GlobalDairyTrade auction — the last for the year — with an overall price increase of 1.3%.

Gains were strongest for the fat products; butter prices were up 6% and anhydrous milk fat up 1.9% while whole and skim milk powder lifted 0.5% and 1.2% respectively.

ASB economist Nat Keall said the result reflected the fact global demand was still holding up well, providing support for dairy prices. . . 

We had the same in November, never seen it before pic.twitter.com/78kvmAnhlL

— Rob Macnab (@RobMacnab) December 21, 2020

Westpac Agri Futures established to help young people into rural careers:

The importance of our primary industries has been recognised with a new sector to be included in The 2021 Ford Ranger New Zealand Rural Games.

The Rural Games will now include Westpac Agri Futures in association with Property Brokers and this is to be held on Friday 12th March in Palmerston North.

Westpac New Zealand General Manager Institutional & Business Banking, Simon Power said Agri Futures is all about encouraging the next generation into agriculture sector careers.

“The demand for staff across rural New Zealand has only grown since COVID-19, and Westpac understands the need to support efforts to encourage more Kiwis to enter the rural workforce.” . . 

Federated Farmers hails pragmatic migrant worker visa decisions:

Farmers and growers up and down the land will be pleased with the pragmatic decision by government to extend visas for migrant workers already on our shores.

“The six-month extension for employer-assisted work visa holders and the postponed stand down period for low-paid Essential Skills via holders will come as a relief for the primary sector heading into the Christmas and New Year period,” Federated Farmers employment spokesperson Chris Lewis says.

“We thank Immigration Minister Kris Faafoi for listening to our case for this, and recognising a common sense approach. . . 

NZ Rural Land Company has quiet NZX debut :

The New Zealand Rural Land Company (NZRLC) has had a quiet debut on the stock exchange, listing at a slight premium.

Its shares touched a high of $1.31 in early trading compared with the issue price of $1.25 in the recent share float, before settling at $1.28 with only small volumes being traded.

The company raised $75 million in the public share float, which along with debt will give it about $100m for rural land buying.

NZRLC plans to buy rural land and lease it to farmers or other producers. . . 

… but my favourite pic I’ve taken this year is of this lamb. Its disapproving expression will haunt my dreams for eternity pic.twitter.com/YStWAb7uJd

— Richard Brown (@Brownsvilleted) December 20, 2020

Tractor and Machinery Association announces 2021 scholarships:

The Tractor & Machinery Association Inc (TAMA) is offering to industry trainees who are studying towards a certificate or diploma.

There are several $500 scholarships available to industry trainees who can demonstrate their commitment and potential contribution to the industry. Applications for 2021 open on 18 January and close on 5 March with successful applicants advised in May.

TAMA general manager Ron Gall said the scholarships are part of TAMA’s wider efforts to encourage younger people to stay working in the industry and take advantage of the valuable career path it offers. . . 

When a Child is Born

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bd6Qqcvdcfw

Glory in simplicity

This time last year we were preparing to celebrate Christmas with our Argentinean exchangee, his wife and two daughters who had come to spend a couple of weeks with us.

None of us could have foreseen that just three months later our borders would be closed  nor that on Christmas Eve this year we’d be wondering when, or even if, it might be safe for them to come back or for us to visit them.

But at least here we’re free to celebrate Christmas and our celebration will start tonight with a carol service.

However and with whoever you’re celebrating, or not, here’s a little  Facebook find to contemplate:

At Christmas, time deepens. The Celtic imagination knew that time is eternity in disguise. They embraced the day as a sacred space. Christmas reminds us to glory in the simplicity and wonder of one day; it unveils the extraordinary that our hurried lives conceal and neglect.

We have been given such immense possibilities. We desperately need to make clearances in our entangled lives to let our souls breathe. We must take care of ourselves and especially of our suffering brothers and sisters.

©JOHN O’DONOHUE

Excerpt from the unpublished collection of John O’Donohue
https://www.johnodonohue.com/

 

Little Drummer Boy (Peace on Earth)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9kfdEyV3RQ

All I want for Christmas

North Otago now has sufficient irrigation to take the edge of droughts.

Those with water can still grow pasture and crops, those without it have options for grazing or selling stock.

But nothing beats rain and that’s what we’re getting for Christmas.

It won’t be what a lot of other people have ordered – campers, trampers and anyone else who was planning to be outside would have been hoping for sunshine.

But after only a little more than half our average 500mms or rain this year, it’s exactly what every farmer wanted.

Wishing you the joys of Christmas, whatever the weather,  and may 2021 be kind to you and yours (and ewe too).

The New Zealand Merino Company would like to wish our Grower Community safe and happy holidays! pic.twitter.com/SPXGXFtpMq

— New Zealand Merino (@NZMerinoCo) December 23, 2020

Word of the day

Reliquary – a container for holy relics; a container or shrine in which sacred relics are kept; a repository or receptacle, such as a coffer or shrin, for relics.

Yes Sir Humphrey

Oh yes. Well, surely our case is intelligible to anyone with the intellectual calibre of Winnie-the-Pooh

— Sir Humphrey Appleby (@YesSirHumphrey) December 10, 2020

Sowell says

In other words, the Constitution cannot protect you, if you don't protect the Constitution with your votes against anyone who violates it. Those government officials who want more power are not going to stop unless they get stopped.

— Thomas Sowell Quotes (@ThomasSowell) December 17, 2020

Rural round-up

Resilient Kiwi spirit kept agriculture strong through pandemic :

Kiwi ingenuity and a drive to “make it work” have been pivotal in New Zealand’s agriculture sector getting through the COVID-19 pandemic with relatively little impact, according to a new study by AgResearch and its partners.

Farmers and others working in the agriculture and food systems in New Zealand and Australia were surveyed or interviewed about the impacts of COVID-19 in the period through to June 2020, which included national lockdowns. While acknowledging overall negative effects, additional stress and pressures from the pandemic and response, only 47 per cent of New Zealand survey respondents viewed the effect on their farms or businesses as negative over that period. A further 37 per cent said the effect was neutral. . . 

Nuffield Scholars’ tour taking in NZ– Yvonne O’Hara:

Southland dairy farmer Lynsey Stratford is looking forward to her “world tour of New Zealand” as part of the 2021 Nuffield New Zealand farming scholarship programme.

She was one of five people to be awarded scholarships. In addition to extensive study and travel, each scholar completes a project, which looks at improving an aspect of primary sector production.

Mrs Stratford would focus on farm health and safety; how to make farms safer for people working on them and what could be learned from other industries.

She had also been looking forward to the four months of overseas travel, which was part of the scholarship. However, as Covid-19 border restrictions meant that could not go ahead, organisers were putting together an alternative travel itinerary. . . 

https://twitter.com/RRBarenbrugNZ/status/1340553311695474688

Lambs sell to Southland buyers – Suz Bremner:

Lambs that were sold at on-farm sales in South Otago and Southland had a much shorter journey than others offered in the past few weeks, as Southland buyers secured the majority.

The first on-farm sale for the week was Dunmore Farm Ltd at Clinton, and Rural Livestock agent Mark Sheppard says the vendor was pleased with the results. 

“The sale was held in a howling nor’wester, but by the end of the day the vendor and purchasers were happy,” Sheppard said. 

“Buyers were from South Otago and Southland, and lambs were sold undrafted for this second annual sale.”  . . 

Lamb the top choice on Christmas Day – the great 2020 Kiwi Christmas survey :

The results of the most important vote of the year are in; lamb will be the most popular protein on Kiwis’ plates on Christmas Day. 

The result comes as part of the Classic Kiwi Christmas Survey – the third edition of the poll run by Retail Meat New Zealand.

The poll of over 1,800 Kiwis covering a range of Christmas traditions, saw lamb rise to the top as the go-to meat of choice with 37% of respondents saying they’ll be serving it for Christmas. Ham was a very close second with 32% and beef came third with 13%.

With lockdowns and a lack of travel impacting everyone in 2020, it’s unsurprising that 93% of respondents stated that spending time at Christmas with family was the most important part of Christmas – a three percent increase on 2019. . . 

Bostock Brothers wins sustainability award –

Hawke’s Bay organic chicken business Bostock Brothers has won an award for its circular system methods such as recycling its home compostable packaging to use on its maize paddocks.

The business took out the Good Food Award at the 2020 Sustainable Business Awards. This award is presented to an organisation which is “transforming the food system to create a positive impact on people and/or the environment”.

The company was the first meat producer in New Zealand to use home compostable packaging and now also allows customers to return the packaging if they do not have a home compost, which creates a circular system.

The returned packaging is put into a large compostable site where it breaks down quickly and easily with the right amount of soil, heat oxygen and water. . . 

Repost from Blue Mountain Station – kick up your heels, it's the silly season! pic.twitter.com/dgGPgMGdXp

— New Zealand Merino (@NZMerinoCo) December 20, 2020

Nine-year growth trial in NT finds interesting comparisons – Bob Freebairn:

Cattle grazing in the long term grazing management trial at Douglas Daly Research Farm, 220 km south of Darwin. The nine-year study found better cattle performance on set stocked areas than intensively rotationally grazed ones.

THE published paper, “Effect of high-intensity rotational grazing on the growth of cattle grazing buffel pasture in the Northern Territory and on soil carbon sequestration”, while in a climate quite different to NSW is interesting.

The detailed research over nine-years, mid-2009 to mid-2018, was conducted at Douglas Daly Research Farm, 220km south of Darwin where average annual rainfall is 1209 millimetres usually falling between October and April. Growth of cattle was greater both per head and per hectare under continuous grazing (CG) compared to intensive rotational grazing (IRG). . .

 

One day before Christmas

Twelve days before Christmas my farmer said to me, “If the wind keeps up the lucerne should be fit by mid-afternoon and we’ll start making hay so there could be a few extra men for tea.”

Eleven days before Christmas my farmer said to me, “I have to go through to a sale in Central today. I haven’t forgotten the school concert and I should be back in time, but if I’m late you’ll have to go without me.”

Ten days before Christmas my farmer said to me, “When you go into town this morning could you see if the spare part for the tractor has turned up yet  and pick up some drench as well. You’ll be passing the bank so could you drop these cheques in then pay these bills too please, there’s only two or three.”

Nine days before Christmas my farmer said to me, “We’ll be shearing today, one of the men will be in the shed so he’ll want lunch early, the other should be in at the usual time and I probably won’t be in ‘til after one. But if we get the irrigator fixed this afternoon there might be time to get the Christmas tree.”

Eight days before Christmas my farmer said to me, “One of the rousies didn’t turn up so I’ve had to get another at short notice. Would you mind giving her lunch and could you throw something together for her morning and afternoon tea?”

Seven days before Christmas my farmer said to me, “The farm advisor’s coming for a look round this morning and I’ll be working with cattle after lunch, but if you remind me before dinner I’ll go and get the tree.”

Six days before Christmas my farmer said to me, “I’ll be going to the sale this morning and it’ll take most of the afternoon to draft the lambs. But they shouldn’t need dagging so when we’ve loaded the truck I’ll have time to get the tree.”

Five days before Christmas my farmer said to me, “If the rain holds off  we’ll make a start on the silage this afternoon but it’ll be light til 10 so I should be able to get the tree.”

Four days before Christmas my farmers said to me, “We’ll be making silage again today. It would save time if you could bring lunch out to the paddock and we’ll probably want dinner too but if we finish early then I’ll go and get the tree.”

Three days before Christmas my farmer said to me, ,“Are you all organised for the staff party? When I’ve finished drenching those lambs I’ll have to shift the irrigator but I’ll be able to give you a hand after that oh and get the Christmas tree.”

Two days before Christmas my farmer said to me, “If we don’t get that irrigator hose today it’ll be next year before we do so could you go and pick it up from the carriers. I won’t have time to do any shopping now so while you’re in town why don’t you choose yourself something and charge it up to me? And, yeah,  I should have time to get the Christmas tree.”

One day before Christmas my farmer said to me, “The motorbike ran out of petrol in the back paddock. If you could come up in the ute to pick me up we could detour on the way back and get that Christmas tree.”

Yes Sir Humphrey

Well, I gather he was as drunk as a lord, so after a discreet interval, they’ll probably make him one.

— Sir Humphrey Appleby (@YesSirHumphrey) December 9, 2020

How much longer can it last?

Paying three to four times the gross earnings of a farm when buying one used to be regarded as reasonable.

That’s probably where values are at the moment.

I don’t know what the reasonable ratio between urban house values and average wages is but when houses in low income suburbs are selling for more than a million dollars it is well below current prices.

Last month an unremarkable 1960s weatherboard house on less than a quarter acre section in Ōtara in South Auckland sold for $1.01 million.

Another – which 12 years ago sold for $340,000 – went for $1.1m, more than triple its last sale price in October.

Manukau Ward councillor Efeso Collins said more than 80 percent of Pacific people did not own their own homes, and rising house prices were a cause of pain for his constituents, as rents went up and incomes did not.

“That means there are times where some people have to go without,” Collins said.

“I know there are parents who are decreasing the number of meals they’re having to ensure that the kids are eating enough, and getting three basic meals a day. That’s part of what I call the social trauma that’s being faced by many constituents that I work with.”

He said people felt hopelessness about the situation, which they did not think would get any better.

“I think people have given up. There are many people in the Manukau Ward… that have just given up.

“I’m really disappointed with what the government’s done. I think the government’s thrown money at a banking system that in my view isn’t working, and that’s not going to keep house prices down.” . . 

Low interest rates are part of the problem but the root cause is simply demand outstripping supply and the ridiculously high prices of houses is feeding through to higher rents:

New Zealand’s national median weekly rental price finished off the year 21 per cent higher than it was at the end of 2015 according to the latest Trade Me Rental Price Index.

Trade Me Property spokesperson Logan Mudge said the national median weekly rent was $520 last month, marking a 4 per cent increase on the same month in 2019 and a 21 per cent increase on this time in 2015. “November’s median weekly rent matched the all-time high we first saw in February this year.”

Nationally, supply was up by 6 per cent in November when compared with the same month last year. “This is the biggest year-on-year increase in supply we have seen since June. However, with demand sky-high, up by a whopping 20 per cent year-on-year, rental prices around the country have stayed very high.” . . 

How can any but the wealthy afford even the basic necessities let alone save for a deposit on a house when they’re paying so much in rent?

How much longer can this madness last?

When farm prices get too high, people stop buying and prices come back a bit.

The ones who get hurt by that are those forced to sell at prices that take most, all, or, sometimes more than all, of their equity.

If there’s a correction in house prices that will happen to some people.

If it doesn’t, is there an alternative to even more people being hurt by escalating rents and the worsening gap between what they could afford to pay for a house and the asking price?

Word of the day

Deipnophobia – a morbid fear of dining, dinner conversations and dinner parties.

Sowell says

It doesn't matter what rights you have under the Constitution, if the government can punish you for exercising those rights. And it doesn't matter what limits the Constitution puts on government officials' power, if they can exceed those limits without any adverse consequences.

— Thomas Sowell Quotes (@ThomasSowell) December 17, 2020

Rural round-up

Trust advises care as drought threatens – Sally Rae:

Farmers in the Waimate and North Otago districts are being urged to keep an eye on each other as the area becomes “critically dry”.

Affected areas included Waimate, Waihaorunga and through the Hakataramea Valley and coastal North Otago, Otago Rural Support Trust co-ordinator Lindsay Purvis said.

Stock seemed to be in good order, which was often the case when drought started, and some farmers were weaning lambs at 8 weeks old, Mr Purvis said.

There seemed to be a market from Dunedin south for store lambs, although the store beef market had “virtually collapsed”. . . 

Red meat industry’s problems researched – John Gibb:

A change of direction is needed urgently if the future of New Zealand’s red meat industry is to be salvaged, a researcher warns.

“When I dug into this I could see that most of it is not fantastic,’’ University of Otago researcher James Wilkes said.

On Saturday, Mr Wilkes, of Christchurch, became the first New Zealand-based former student to graduate with the new Otago doctor of business administration (DBA) degree.

Four other people were also in the first cohort to gain the degree, including two Chinese students whose graduation was celebrated at a Zoom event. . . 

Migrant worker visas extended to address labour uncertainties :

The government is extending the visas of many migrant workers to ease labour shortfalls.

As part of a package announced tonight, working holiday and employer-assisted work visas will be pushed forward six months.

A 12-month stand-down period for low-paid Essential Skills visa holders working in New Zealand for three years will also be put on hold until January 2022. . . 

Texels lambs weaned 10 days ago looking great. pic.twitter.com/AejGfgOm2D

— Just a gardener/sheep farmer (@Dayzie72) December 20, 2020

How wine and cheese can boost your brain :

Got a soft spot for cheese and a drop of red wine? Your brain might just thank you for it.

New research from Iowa State University shows consumption of cheese and red wine can boost the brain.

The study’s lead author, assistant professor of food science and human nutrition Auriel Willette, said the findings about the beneficial effects of cheese were unexpected.

“To my total surprise… the strongest predictor of people having good food intelligence is cheese. . . 

New system a big boost for dam safety – David Williams:

A two-and-a-half-year upgrade completes a 30-year journey for a big tech company, David Williams writes in this content partnership article

What’s striking about dams, like people, is how different they are, Dam Safety Intelligence’s general manager Dan Forster says. 

“Dams have all got their own unique personalities and characteristic traits. And the big thing is that on the surface a dam can seem to be in good condition and performing well but what really matters is how it’s performing underneath the surface.”

If it were human, a well-monitored dam might look like a patient in hospital, with a pin-cushion of sensors and instruments poking into and out of them. In the case of a big dam, experts are checking for things like the reservoir level, seepage flow, and “piezometric” pressures on various parts of the engineered structure, such as where the dam meets other surfaces, called abutments. . . 

 

Merry Christmas from Pirie Farms.
Photo credit Ella Pirie pic.twitter.com/wsjIpWKd2M

— Julie Pirie (@nzjuls) December 20, 2020

Grants for farmers wanting to grow Christmas trees :

Financial support is being offered to Cheshire farmers interested in growing a Christmas tree crop on their land.

Grants covering up to 70% of the planting and establishment costs of a conifer crop has been made available by United Utilities.

Alongside this, expert advice and training on all aspects of Christmas tree growing will be given to farmers.

The water firm’s catchment advisor, Vee Moore said growing Christmas trees can be a profitable use of land. . . 

Two days before Christmas

Twelve days before Christmas my farmer said to me, “If the wind keeps up the lucerne should be fit by mid-afternoon and we’ll start making hay so there could be a few extra men for tea.”

Eleven days before Christmas my farmer said to me, “I have to go through to a sale in Central today. I haven’t forgotten the school concert and I should be back in time, but if I’m late you’ll have to go without me.”

Ten days before Christmas my farmer said to me, “When you go into town this morning could you see if the spare part for the tractor has turned up yet  and pick up some drench as well. You’ll be passing the bank so could you drop these cheques in then pay these bills too please, there’s only two or three.”

Nine days before Christmas my farmer said to me, “We’ll be shearing today, one of the men will be in the shed so he’ll want lunch early, the other should be in at the usual time and I probably won’t be in ‘til after one. But if we get the irrigator fixed this afternoon there might be time to get the Christmas tree.”

Eight days before Christmas my farmer said to me, “One of the rousies didn’t turn up so I’ve had to get another at short notice. Would you mind giving her lunch and could you throw something together for her morning and afternoon tea?”

Seven days before Christmas my farmer said to me, “The farm advisor’s coming for a look round this morning and I’ll be working with cattle after lunch, but if you remind me before dinner I’ll go and get the tree.”

Six days before Christmas my farmer said to me, “I’ll be going to the sale this morning and it’ll take most of the afternoon to draft the lambs. But they shouldn’t need dagging so when we’ve loaded the truck I’ll have time to get the tree.”

Five days before Christmas my farmer said to me, “If the rain holds off  we’ll make a start on the silage this afternoon but it’ll be light til 10 so I should be able to get the tree.”

Four days before Christmas my farmers said to me, “We’ll be making silage again today. It would save time if you could bring lunch out to the paddock and we’ll probably want dinner too but if we finish early then I’ll go and get the tree.”

Three days before Christmas my farmer said to me, ,“Are you all organised for the staff party? When I’ve finished drenching those lambs I’ll have to shift the irrigator but I’ll be able to give you a hand after that oh and get the Christmas tree.”

Two days before Christmas my farmer said to me, “If we don’t get that irrigator hose today it’ll be next year before we do so could you go and pick it up from the carriers. I won’t have time to do any shopping now so while you’re in town why don’t you choose yourself something and charge it up to me? And, yeah,  I should have time to get the Christmas tree.”

Yes Sir Humphrey

Unfortunately, among the many extraordinary qualities that politicians possess, reasonableness is not necessarily the first that springs to mind. Not when one contemplates the average Minister. And our Minister is very average.

— Sir Humphrey Appleby (@YesSirHumphrey) December 9, 2020

Is it fit for purpose now?

Heather Simpson and Sir Brian Roche delivered their report on New Zealand’s Covid-19 response in September. It was finally released last week, after parliament had risen.

Given it’s content, it’s not surprising the government didn’t want parliament’s scrutiny and did want public attention elsewhere.

Thomas Coughlan says the report is damning – and particularly damning of the Ministry of Health, the heroes of the Covid-19 response.:

Of the 28 recommendations made across two reports, 25 were for the Ministry – the criticism is wide-ranging and accusations of what amounts to a power grab by the Ministry of Health, which didn’t properly share information with other ministries or even ministers and failed to cooperate properly with the rest of Government.

The report found that the there was “inappropriate accountability” for different parts of the strategy and that “numerous written reports” from the Ministry on progress it was making at the border “did not always reflect concrete action on the ground”.

The report said the Ministry’s approach to the implementation of policy “was often seen as being at odds with the overall collective interest”.

Testing rates – something we know is crucial to the keeping Covid out – were kept low because the Ministry was lax in actually paying the people doing the testing.

Unsurprisingly this led to “increased dissatisfaction with the system and at times made for reluctance to increase testing rates, consequently reducing access”.

This gives credence to the view that keeping the disease out has owed a lot to luck.

It’s little wonder that the official answer for not releasing the report earlier was to give the Ministry time to respond to allegations of serious failings on their part.

Other parts of the Government “without exception… expressed concern at their ability to be ‘heard’ by the Ministry of Health.

Other agencies and the private sector said the Health Ministry acted without full regard for the impact of its decisions, even as they “consistently sought more input into operationalising implementation plans”.

This can’t have been helped by the fact that the big cross-government group (All of Government group or AoG) set up to manage the pandemic didn’t actually include the Ministry of Health. The Ministry decided on its own not to participate.

Did the Ministers know that?

Once the country went back into level 1, that problem deepened. The AoG “effectively became a ‘Rest of Government Unit’ being everything other than Health”.

This was a problem because at the time, difficulties n communication in the Health Ministry meant future planning had to be put on hiatus.

Throughout the pandemic, public servants and ministers have struggled to strike the balance between public heath and other concerns. This report suggests that the Ministry of Health didn’t even try to strike that balance, sending off policy advice to ministers before consulting other parts of Government.

“The Ministry of Health is the principal advisor to the Government as it is essential that decisions taken as part of the response are firmly grounded in the best public health science,”

“At times, however, this seems to have been interpreted as meaning that advice should not be influenced by information or legitimate concerns expressed by other sectors.

“That should clearly not be the case,” the report said.

Is anyone being held accountable for that?

“Too often decision-making papers have gone to Cabinet with little or no real analysis of options and little evidence of input from outside health or even from different parts of the health Ministry or sector,” the report said.

The reviewers acknowledge that such chaos would be forgivable in the first weeks of the pandemic, but “it should not be continuing eight months into an issue as we are currently facing”. . . 

The MoH is a policy organisation not designed for implementing strategy, but if it was sending papers to Cabinet with insufficient analysis it wasn’t even doing policy well.

Michael Morrah lists the key themes in the report:

• consistency and quality of communication, and consultation with relevant stakeholders was suboptimal
• inappropriate accountability for various aspects of the strategies and their implementation
• border control directives have been difficult to understand and implement
• lack of clarity in the testing framework
• lack of good forward planning from the perspective of an end-to-end system
• underutilisation of health expertise outside the Ministry of Health leading to suboptimal analysis and planning documents
• lack of confidence in data being reported to key decision makers.
• The report says “exhausted” officials weren’t ready for the August outbreak, which sent Auckland back to alert level 3 after 102 days of no community transmission.

“The immediate goal had been achieved and much focus rightly turned to supporting economic recovery. In hindsight, however, better use could have been made in the 102 days to prepare for the inevitable outbreak. 

“This is important, not as a criticism of the actions in the past, but because it is essential, we learn that lesson now.” 

Have the lessons been learned and the necessary changes been made?

The patchwork of agencies and ministries involved in the response had done well, the report said, but the arrangement wasn’t sustainable in the long-term fight against COVID-19.

“We don’t have a status quo model which is well understood and could serve effectively for the next 24 to 36 months,” Sir Brian and Simpson said. “While the model is improving it is not yet fit for purpose.” 

It wasn’t fit for purpose when the report was written, is it now?

New South Wales has had another outbreak of Covid-19 and the UK has a new and more virulent strain of the disease which will almost certainly come here:

New Zealand will see the new variant of Covid-19 from the UK here within the next few weeks, a top epidemiologist warns.

But, the new Covid-19 variant found in the UK is potentially only a problem for New Zealand if the virus is imported and it starts an outbreak here, Professor Michael Baker said. . . 

“Basically every time we get an infected person going into a MIQ facility in New Zealand, it increases the risk of outbreaks because mistakes happen and it’s a tough virus to control.”

He said a simple measure is to add an extra step, an additional period of MIQ stay in the UK and having a negative test result before travelling.

“We will be bringing this virus into New Zealand now, or in the next few weeks because it’s becoming the dominant virus there.”

National Party election policy was to require MIQ and a negative test before people boarded planes to come to New Zealand. That wouldn’t stop everyone with the disease but it would catch some of them.

The logistics wouldn’t be easy and it wouldn’t be cheap but if it kept at least some infectious people out of the country it would be worth it, especially if our model isn’t yet fit for purpose.

The Simpson Roche report is here.