Word of the day

16/04/2020

Loathly  – causing hatred or disgust; repulsive; not willingly, reluctantly.


Sowell says

16/04/2020


Rural round-up

16/04/2020

If a tree falls in the forest can it be exported? – Dr Eric Crampton:

We need to be watching closely how the Government proceeds. We risk falling into the same kind of value-added magical thinking that ended badly in the past; messing up our international trading position; and returning to bureaucratic control over domestic industry, warns Eric Crampton.

Last week, Forestry Minister Shane Jones warned of impending restrictions on New Zealand’s international trade in logs.

Even if you don’t really care much about forestry, the Government’s response here may signal what’s in store for the rest of the economy after lockdown.

Will New Zealand continue as a trading nation and open economy, building on the recent success in setting a free trade agenda in essential goods with Singapore? Or, will it retreat to a more Muldoonist policy in which people like Minister Jones decide what can be exported?

This matters.

Processing delays to lengthen :

Already significant waiting times faced by farmers to get stock processed are likely to get worse in the short term, Beef + Lamb’s Economic Service and the Meat Industry Association say.

Processing capacity for sheep has been cut in half while beef is about 30% lower as plants adjust to covid-19 rules.

The latest analysis forecasts South Island lamb processing in April and May to be pushed back another week to five weeks though the backlog is expected to be cleared by the end of May.

In the North Island no further delays are expected on top of what farmers are already experiencing. . . 

Funding pushes efforts to eradicate stoats on Rangitoto ki te Tonga / d’Urville Island – Tracy Neal:

New Zealand’s eighth-largest island is on a mission to become stoat-free.

The island in the western Marlborough Sounds was said to be free of ship rats, Norway rats, possums and weasels, but stoats had led to the local extinction of little spotted kiwi, yellow-crowned kākāriki and South Island kākā.

They also threatened an important population of South Island long-tailed bats/pekapeka. . .

AgTech hackathon:

Pivoting around a global pandemic, the fourth annual AgTech Hackathon team is once again seeking ambitious problem solvers to ideate five Primary Industries challenges – albeit from their bubble.

Originally planned to be the last weekend of March as an active part of New Zealand AgriFood Week, the event was postponed due to COVID-19. True to creative and tech roots, the Hackathon is determined to go ahead but with a twist.

Introducing AgTech Hackathon Lite. . . 

Cauliflower prices on the march:

Cauliflower prices rose more than 60 percent in March, as prices for a wide range of vegetables also increased in the month, Stats NZ said today.

Prices for vegetables rose in March 2020 (up 7.4 percent), mainly influenced by rises for broccoli, cucumber, cauliflower, capsicums, and carrots.

Overall food prices were up 0.7 percent, with most other staple foods holding steady, although prices for many meat products fell.

Cauliflower prices rose 64 percent to a weighted average price of $5.75 per kilo. . . 

Avocado orchard conversion block on the market:

A former small-scale dairy farm and maize cropping block set up for conversion into a commercial-sized avocado orchard has been placed on the market for sale.

The 95.8-hectare property at Waiharara, some 28-kilometres north of Kaitaia, was originally established to run as a dairying unit bolstered by the capacity to produce economic levels of stock feed.

However, a decade of cumulative economic, legislative, and environmental changes have motivated the Waiharara, property owners to sell up their dairying interests and the land which previously sustained the dairying-related activities. . . 


Thanks NZ ag supply chain

16/04/2020

The other costs

16/04/2020

Every day at 1pm Director General of Health Ashley Bloomfield updates us on the number of confirmed and probable cases of Covid-19, the number who have recovered and those who have died.

It is impossible to count the other costs:

A leading heart failure specialist is among those concerned that lives could be lost through people failing to seek treatment during the pandemic.

And another fears that a drop in pathology testing could mean cancers and coronary disease go undetected for longer, while cancelling or postponing elective surgery could mean some patients end up in hospital in a much more serious condition. . . 

Delays in diagnosis and treatment can mean much worse outcomes for many diseases and ocnditions.

There are other unseen costs:

University of Auckland Economist Dr Ananish Chaudhuri says the immediate emotional power of people dying with the disease could lead New Zealand into an extension of the Covid-19 lockdown with dire consequences, including more deaths.

Chaudhuri, who is currently Visiting Professor of Public Policy, at Harvard Kennedy School, says people over-estimate the costs of immediate and visible dangers, which clouds judgement and calculations of the unseen costs arising from their reaction.

“Extension of the lockdown would aim to save a more certain number of lives now, for an unknown number of lives we will lose over time due to health and economic impacts.

“Unemployment is not just a number; there are human health and fatality costs. When unemployment goes up the life expectancy of those people goes down. Furthermore, there are devastating consequences for communities from high unemployment – depression, poverty, violence, falling education.

“People have tried to claim that extending the current lockdown is a choice between saving lives and losing money, but it’s not. It’s a choice between losing lives now but losing lives later – and possibly a greater number and a greater variety of otherwise healthy people later.”

Chaudhuri points to research showing that the immediate aftermath of the 911 attacks was an estimated 1500 additional deaths on the road, from people driving rather than flying. It arose because in an environment surrounded by concerns over terrorism, people judged they were more likely to die of terrorism than a traffic accident, or even of the more likely event of respiratory illness or heart attack.

“The problem is that we pay more attention to, and value higher, things happening right in front of us – but we don’t pay attention to, or value, even larger things that happen less visibly or more slowly.”

Chaudhuri says an error is being made by those who differentiate between objectives of suppression, eradication, or mitigation.

“It’s a continuum between doing nothing and doing everything – and there’s different costs along that continuum. The challenge is to correctly perceive and calculate those costs.” Chaudhuri says.

It is not a simple case of the lockdown saving lives and freeing us up endangering them.

Lives will be saved by fewer people contracting Covid-19 because of the lockdown and some will be saved by being able to get treatment that would have been denied them had hospitals been overwhelmed with Covid-19 cases. But other lives will be lost and blighted through delayed diagnosis and treatment, increases in suicide, and the emotional and financial toll of business failures and job losses.

I think it was right to go into lockdown and that, if it wasn’t done sooner, large gatherings should have been stopped earlier.

Friends who were invited to a wedding on March 21st received a message a few days earlier from the couple saying their guests health was more important than their wedding and they were postponing it.

On the advice of friends who are doctors we cancelled a 90th birthday we were to host on the 21st too.

That day the government order went out that no gatherings of more than five people should take place but that was too late for those already taking place, at least one of which has resulted in a cluster of Covid-19.

In supporting the lockdown, I acknowledge that it incurs other substantial costs including lives that will be lost. That is why I support the idea of what’s safe rather than what’s essential as the guide for which businesses can operate.

If an electrician can visit a safely house when all the fuses blow, why can’t s/he work on a new build or renovation?

If supermarkets and dairies can sell their goods safely why not bakeries, butchers and greengrocers?

If greenkeepers can work on golf courses, why can’t a lone operator mow private lawns?

The rules around a change in levels will be announced today.

To reduce the other costs of the lockdown, they must include a change from allowing only essential businesses to operate to allowing any business that can operate safely to do so.

 

 

 


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