It’s raining

The government’s decision to put public health before that of businesses can be justified but National’s Finance spokesman Paul Goldsmith says it’s time to open the public purse:

We are facing the sharpest and deepest recession in living memory.

To avoid an accelerating downward spiral, with the mass failure of previously healthy firms, large scale job losses, mortgage foreclosures and serious hardship, a massive economic package is required now. Bring out the bazooka.

The primary economic goal must be to reduce the number of business collapses, and thereby to sustain jobs and incomes.

We’d support an economic response that is bigger and faster than what has been delivered so far. . . 

Businesses which have received help are grateful but a lot more needs to be done to protect jobs.

The primary source of urgent assistance is the $5.1b wage subsidy scheme. This we support. But the $150,000 cap for businesses, which translates to 21 full time staff, means that around half or more of New Zealand’s workforce won’t be covered the scheme.

While it’s true that most businesses in New Zealand are small, the majority of workers currently work for the 5000 businesses that employ more than 50 people.

Just think of a large scale tourist bus operator with hundreds of employees. This business’s revenues will have collapsed. A subsidy capped at 21 employees will be of little assistance.

Our strong view is that the government’s immediate package of economic support – $6b at best – is far too light. 

The $150,000 cap needs to be much higher, so that workers are covered no matter what the size of the business.

Urgent further consideration also needs to be given to the shape of the scheme. The Government’s scheme pays the money with no guarantee people will be kept in employment – only ‘best endeavours’ are required. The British scheme, recently announced, is a more generous payment for employees kept on the payroll but sent home.

The costs of the British scheme will be eye-watering, but some variation of that will likely be the least worst option.

Monetary policy, meantime, is not yet doing anything like the hard work it did during the GFC. The Reserve Bank will need to do more.

There is no doubt that if further dramatic restrictions on movement and work follow, we will have to go even further. . . 

Working capital will be the greatest challenges facing most businesses. The banks are rightly the first port of call. A government backed line of credit to banks to on-lend to businesses in trouble is required now. I know the government and banks are working on this; I’d encourage them to fast-track their plans.

On the assumption that this disruption could run to months, we should also move urgently to start on useful transport and water infrastructure – work that definitely needs to be done against nice-to-haves. We should fast-track legislation to get the shovels on the ground.

We cannot possibly stop every job loss, nor avoid every business collapse. But we can, and we should, do more to save as many jobs as we can.

Remember this is an economic shock created by government responses to a virus. This is why successive governments have reduced debt when they could. This is what we’ve prepared for.

My plea to the government is to focus on the here and now, and move more rapidly to stabilise businesses as best we can to save jobs. The National Party stands ready to help in any way we can.

The previous government was criticised in some quarters for its determination to return the government books to surplus.

The current government has been criticised for its determination  to keep debt low.

Both were preparing for a rainy day and that day has arrived.

It’s bucketing down and urgent action is needed to prevent the flood of business collapses and job losses that will follow.

2 Responses to It’s raining

  1. adamsmith1922 says:

    Reblogged this on The Inquiring Mind.

    Like

  2. Andrei says:

    No Ele this is absurd – it is a mass panic over the common cold and the Government and public health people have been totally irrepsonsible in not calming it down but helping to feed the frenzy.

    In Wuhan province China where this new common cold varient emerged the epidemic has all but died away – not because of anything the Government did but because everybody has been exposed to this virus and either beaten it off immdiately or caught it and recovered as the vast majority of those who catch it do.

    Winter is the cold and flu season which is just coming to an end in the Northern hemisphere and as it does this epidemic will wane there, maybe to reemerge sometime around November

    We are coming into the cold and flu season and people will get colds just like they do every (expletive required here but omitted so as not to offend sensitive souls year!

    And every year during cold and flu season people who have come to the end of their natural lifespan catch one that turns into pneumonia and they die, as we all eventually do.

    But this year the totally irresponible News Media will keep a running tally of such deaths and when people see the numbers each night as they huddle in fear on their sofas the sense of impending doom will increase while confidence their in the future will decrease.

    Meanwhile as business collapse and unemployment rises the health issues these ills bring will increase, suicides, heart attacks, family violence and so forth.

    33,225 people died in New Zealand in 2018 which is about double the current number of deaths attributed this this new common cold varient globally as of the time I am posting this

    People are not dropping dead like flies despite what your TV is telling you, predominantly old and frail people are coming to the end of their lives as they acheive their natural lifespan and the majority of them have actually lived a lot longer than any of their ancestors did

    Like

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