The people in charge of Labour have guided the party through a period of strategic ineptitude, policy torpor, financial ruin and organisational decay. They are just not very good at politics.
Until the party reckons with this, root and branch, their only other idea — changing leaders periodically in the hope that doing so will transform the party’s fortunes — is merely window dressing to distract from the shambles within.
Bur Phil Quin and Labour once were friends.
He like several other commentators are already calling the election for National.
But while it certainly looks like Labour is losing it doesn’t mean that National will win:
The latest poll results show voters recognise National offers a strong stable government, in contrast to the opposition, Prime Minister Bill English says.
But Mr English said party needed to lift its support further to ensure its re-election. . .
. . . Labour’s poor poll showing would not ensure National’s re-election. “Despite Labour doing worse, the Greens are doing a bit better, and they could have a majority with New Zealand First so our view is that our support, while it’s good, isn’t enough.’
One of the determinants of who leads the next government will be what happens to the wasted votes.
If for example National got a similar level of support as it did in this poll and TOP got around 4.5%, the reallocation of those and other votes for parties that didn’t make the 5% might just be enough.
But National can’t rely on that outcome, it must earn the right to lead the government and in doing so get the votes to enable it to do so.
That won’t be easy because after nearly nine years in government it too has people who once were friends but for a variety of reasons are no longer.