The 1 News Colmar Brunton poll released this week was bad news for Labour.
Newshub has been leaked poll results from the company that does Labour’s internal polling which show it is in big trouble, two-and-a-half months out from the election.
The results show Labour is on 26 percent support – crashing from 34 percent in May. . .
National is chugging along as usual – currently on 42 percent – then Labour (26 percent), the Greens (13 percent) and New Zealand First (14 percent). . .
The Roy Morgan poll released last night held better news for Labour:
The overall support for the governing National-led coalition was down 3.5% to 45.5% with National support down 3.5% to 43% while support for their Coalition partners was unchanged with Maori Party on 1.5%, Act NZ on 1% and United Future on 0%.
Support for a potential Labour/Greens alliance was up 4.5% to 44% driven by the 5% rise in support for Labour, now on 30.5%, while support for the Greens was down 0.5% to 13.5%. Support for New Zealand First was down 1% to 8%.
But that poll usually has bigger changes than the others and it’s the trend which matters.
The UMR polls shows a downward trend for both National and Labour.
That’s similar to what happened in 2002 when many voters didn’t think National, the bigger Opposition party, had a chance, but Labour, the main governing party, didn’t benefit.
Act, NZ First and whichever iteration of what is now United Future was then, mopped up support instead.
This time neither Act nor United Future are gaining but NZ First is.
People tend to bank the good things a government does and the longer a party is in power the more people will take issue with what it does, or doesn’t do.
Even though polls continue to show a reasonable majority think the country is on the
wrong right track, that might not be enough to return a stable, National-led government.