Labour’s poll lower

The 1 News Colmar Brunton poll released this week was bad news for Labour.

Its own poll is even worse.

Newshub has been leaked poll results from the company that does Labour’s internal polling which show it is in big trouble, two-and-a-half months out from the election.

The results show Labour is on 26 percent support – crashing from 34 percent in May. . . 

National is chugging along as usual – currently on 42 percent – then Labour (26 percent), the Greens (13 percent) and New Zealand First (14 percent). . .

The Roy Morgan poll released last night held better news for Labour:

The overall support for the governing National-led coalition was down 3.5% to 45.5% with National support down 3.5% to 43% while support for their Coalition partners was unchanged with Maori Party on 1.5%, Act NZ on 1% and United Future on 0%.

Support for a potential Labour/Greens alliance was up 4.5% to 44% driven by the 5% rise in support for Labour, now on 30.5%, while support for the Greens was down 0.5% to 13.5%. Support for New Zealand First was down 1% to 8%.

But that poll usually has bigger changes than the others and it’s the trend which matters.

The UMR polls shows a downward trend for both National and Labour.

That’s similar to what happened in 2002 when many voters didn’t think National, the bigger Opposition party, had a chance, but Labour, the main governing party,  didn’t benefit.

Act, NZ First and whichever iteration of what is now United Future was then, mopped up support instead.

This time neither Act nor United Future are gaining but NZ First is.

People tend to bank the good things a government does and the longer a party is in power the more people will take issue with what it does, or doesn’t do.

Even though polls continue to show a reasonable majority think the country is on the wrong right track, that might not be enough to return a stable, National-led government.

 

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3 Responses to Labour’s poll lower

  1. Will says:

    With respect, the old ‘Labour verses Capital’ paradigm is all but gone. The Greens remain absurdly socialist, and Labour’s divisive identity politics no longer fools anyone, but this has allowed National to ignore the growing issue which is ‘Globalism verses Nationalism.’

    We can see our sovereignty being traded away to unaccountable foreign elites with their own obscure agendas, and our unique way of life threatened by extraordinary levels of immigration, often peoples with whom we have no kinship and don’t want or need. It can feel like globalism is just a more efficient way for banks and corporations to farm humans for wealth. It certainly does nothing for us ordinary people.

    For my part, I can’t ignore the long tortuous path that led us to where we are and what we have. Western Civilisation, freedom, rule of law, human rights and representational democracy. I am appalled at what Western Europe has done to itself, and afraid for our grandchildren. Are we to just throw their birthright away without a shot fired or even a discussion? If there is a plan, is there any chance we could all take a peek?

    I’m often left with the impression that NZ will sign any deal, join any group and pay any price to counter our geographical isolation. But sometimes you just have to walk away and deal with the consequences. Like Britain.

    I am an exporter, I know that less trade restrictions can mean greater prosperity (for some anyway) but I and others are increasingly concerned about the price to pay. I am not writing all this to try to convince anybody or change their minds. But these fears are real and they are not going away. People are very reluctant to vote for Peters, we know him of old. Perhaps his rising popularity will persuade National to start taking our concerns seriously.

    Sorry to go on, this is the only site I use. I hope National does well, but I also wish to see a beginning of a return to our roots.

    Regards.

  2. Ross Miller says:

    errrrrrrrrrrrrrrr …. final para, second line ….’wrong track’ ????????

  3. homepaddock says:

    You’re right Ross I was wrong the track is right.

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