A snap in time

This month’s Roy Morgan poll shows a big jump in support for National and a slump in support for Labour:

During July support for National jumped a large 10% to 53%, now well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 37% (down 5.5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National, with their biggest lead since May 2015, would win easily.

However, support for the National partners was down slightly with the Maori Party down 1.5% to 0.5%, Act NZ was up 0.5% to 1% and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Support fell for all three Parliamentary Opposition parties; Labour’s support was 25.5% (down 2.5%) – the lowest support for Labour since May 2015; Greens support was 11.5% (down 3%) and NZ First 7% (down 2%). Of parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0.5% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 0.5% (down 0.5%).

rmp

The NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased to 127pts (up 6.5pts) in July with 57.5% (up 3%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 30.5% (down 3.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. . . 

Any poll is only a snap in time.

Last month’s snap showed a larger drop in support for the government, this month’s shows a larger increase.

This result indicates those snapped are more confident in the government and its direction in spite of the slew of negative headlines in the last few weeks.

It could indicate that people accept that problems a long time in the making will be a long time in the solving and aren’t looking to the government for miracles.

It could indicate that people looking at instability in so many other parts of the world are opting for stability here.

Whatever it indicates, it is only a snap in time and the next snap could be very different.

6 Responses to A snap in time

  1. pdm` says:

    Good to see ACT at 1% – if they can win Epsom and get to say 3% at the next election New Zealand will be a better place.

  2. JC says:

    I think it might be a snapshot of the public exposing the Opposition’s tin ear on the housing “crisis”.

    Most people, especially regular voters are well aware of the cyclical nature of house prices, immigration and booms and busts and don’t hold the Govt totally responsible for the subsequent effects.

    In this case its largely a problem of an all too rare growth in most parts of the economy and for the moment the public is giving the Govt some slack and reminding the Opposition parties they need policies demonstrably more credible than those of the Govt.

    JC

  3. Mr E says:

    I never pay too much attention to Roy Morgan.

  4. robhosking says:

    Yep – wise words. Roy Morgan is always up & down. Running a line through the previous three or four is the best approach.

    There’s been some very silly interpretations on it elsewhere.

  5. Paul Scott says:

    It does not alter the fact that Nanny is asleep at the wheel. Nanny thinks the RMA just needed some more Treaty provisions, and that the Reserve Bank can do the housing crisis. But they will confiscate private property. ACT with Seymour is a liberal social pansy party. Nothing about RMA or Race based privilege. Here comes NZF.

  6. […] suppose youth must have its fling, and all that, but over at Home Paddock, Ele Ludemann, whose loyalty to the National Party is long and unquestionable, has some wise words in her post […]

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