During July support for National jumped a large 10% to 53%, now well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 37% (down 5.5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National, with their biggest lead since May 2015, would win easily.
However, support for the National partners was down slightly with the Maori Party down 1.5% to 0.5%, Act NZ was up 0.5% to 1% and United Future was 0% (unchanged).
Support fell for all three Parliamentary Opposition parties; Labour’s support was 25.5% (down 2.5%) – the lowest support for Labour since May 2015; Greens support was 11.5% (down 3%) and NZ First 7% (down 2%). Of parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0.5% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 0.5% (down 0.5%).
The NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased to 127pts (up 6.5pts) in July with 57.5% (up 3%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 30.5% (down 3.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. . .
Any poll is only a snap in time.
Last month’s snap showed a larger drop in support for the government, this month’s shows a larger increase.
This result indicates those snapped are more confident in the government and its direction in spite of the slew of negative headlines in the last few weeks.
It could indicate that people accept that problems a long time in the making will be a long time in the solving and aren’t looking to the government for miracles.
It could indicate that people looking at instability in so many other parts of the world are opting for stability here.
Whatever it indicates, it is only a snap in time and the next snap could be very different.