Polls have consistently shown a significant majority of people will vote for the current flag rather than the alternative.
Polling companies haven’t been calling the people I’ve been asking.
We were with 10 New Zealanders in Tasmania three weeks ago, all but one were voting for the new flag.
A week later we were on a farm tour in the North Island with 41 people. Only two of those were voting for the status quo, one didn’t like the alternative but was planning to vote for it in preference to the old one and the others were definitely voting for change.
At a dinner last week, four of six were voting for change.
Does that mean the polls will be proved wrong?
Sadly, I don’t think so.
Between people who don’t want change, people who do but don’t like the alternative enough to vote for it and people voting against change for political reasons I think the polls will prove to be right.
But whatever the outcome of the referendum, we’ve got a new flag and we’ll continue to fly it.