Word of the day

July 13, 2015

Oppugn – to question the truth or validity of; call into question; oppose; contradict; dispute.


Rural round-up

July 13, 2015

Savage dog attack kills 21 sheep: – Shannon Gillies:

A savage dog attack on sheep in the Christchurch suburb of Hei Hei has left about 21 animals dead and others injured.

Joshua Olykan said he came home to his parents’ Buchanan’s Road property yesterday morning to discover 14 animals dead, dying or badly injured.

He said two other neighbouring properties also suffered stock losses, with more than a dozen sheep savaged in a paddock between Gilberthorpes Road and Pound Road. . .

Save recreational access plea by Federated Farmers and Fish & Game:

Federated Farmers and Fish & Game are asking Parliament to ensure proposed health and safety legislation does not lead to restrictions on recreational access to farms and forests.

The Health and Safety in Employment Amendment Bill is presently being considered by the Transport and Industrial Relations Select Committee, which is due to report back on 24 July.

The bill is aimed at improving safety in all workplaces, including farms, but Federated Farmers and Fish & Game are concerned it will also inadvertently prevent people enjoying farms for recreation.

“We are all for making workplaces safer. New Zealand workers deserve nothing less,” said Fish & Game chief executive Bryce Johnson. . .

 Dairy farmers spend over $1billion on the environment:

Federated Farmers and DairyNZ have conducted a survey on New Zealand dairy farmers’ environmental investments, revealing an estimated spend of over $1billion over the past five years.

Five percent of the nation’s dairy farmers responded to the survey and reported on the environmental initiatives they had invested in such as effluent management, stock exclusion, riparian planting, upgrading systems and investing in technology, retiring land and developing wetlands.

“It is encouraging to see the significant investments farmers are putting into protecting and improving the environment,” says Andrew Hoggard, Federated Farmers Dairy Chair.

“Farmers understand the need to get the balance right when it comes to lifting production and profits along with environmental responsibilities. . . “

 OceanaGold sees more life in Macraes goldfield – Paul McBeth:

(BusinessDesk) – OceanaGold Corp, which is in the process of buying the Waihi Gold Mine, sees more life in the Macraes Goldfield in Otago as cheaper fuel and a weaker New Zealand dollar make the operation more attractive.

The Melbourne-based company discovered a new zone of gold mineralisation which could increase the potential reserves of the Macraes mine after embarking on a drilling programme in the first quarter of the year, it said in a statement. OceanaGold has been investigating ways to extend the mine’s life by three to five years after signalling plans to wind down the operation by the end of 2017.

“Changes to macro-economic conditions such as lower fuel costs and a weaker New Zealand dollar have resulted in significant benefits to our New Zealand operations,” chief executive Mick Wilkes said. “I am pleased to report that initial drilling has produced significant results that demonstrate the potential for increased reserves at the Macraes operations.” . .

Farmer experience ‘bottled’ to help dairying bounce back:

DairyNZ has created a new online resource detailing the financial spending of top performing dairy farms. This is part of the organisations work to help farmers cope with lower milk prices and set the industry up for a speedy recovery.

Economic modelling shows if farmers can decrease their potential loss by up to $1/kg MS this season they could recover from the low milk price three to four years faster.

DairyNZ general manager of research and development David McCall says one of the ways to capture this dollar is by spending on the right things and implementing good budgetary control of costs. . .

 Mexico wants more live NZ sheep, says broker – Eric Frykberg :

Timaru livestock dealer Peter Walsh says Mexico wants more live sheep from New Zealand.

Mr Walsh organised the sale of 45,000 sheep to Mexico.

Listen to Peter Walsh on Checkpoint ( 2 min 45 sec )

He said when they arrived, the Mexican authorities announced that they wanted more.

He said they would like 250,000 head a year in order to build up their national flock from quality New Zealand bloodlines, and he would be interested in doing more business with them. . .

Concern over upping live sheep export numbers – Rachel Graham;

Federated Farmers say the flow on effects of increasing live sheep exports to 250,000 a year would have to be carefully considered before it was given the go ahead.

 A livestock dealer who organised the sale of 45,000 sheep to Mexico for breeding, said the Mexican Government would like it to increase to 250,000 sheep a year.

Federated Farmers meat and fibre chair Rick Powdrell said the 45,000 sheep were sold by farmers struggling due to drought, and were likely to have been killed anyway.

He said sending a quarter of a million sheep a year would be a completely different situation. . .

Young Farmers Backed by Blue Wing Honda for Four Decades:

As the longest-standing sponsor of the ANZ Young Farmer contest, Blue Wing Honda has seen many talented young people take the title over the years – 40 of them to be precise.

Matt Bell of Aorangi was the latest to be awarded the coveted prize, winning the 2015 Grand Final of the ANZ Young Farmer Contest at Taupo over the weekend. Now in its 47th year, the contest known as ‘New Zealand’s ultimate rural challenge’ tests competitors’ mental dexterity and physical stamina while showcasing the sophistication of modern farming. . .

 

 


How’s your geography?

July 13, 2015

This is called a tough test for good reason.

How Well Do You Know Your Geography?

You got 17 out of 30 right!
Not bad at all!
Your geography knowledge is pretty good, but you should probably go on a few holidays. You know, just to swot up a little bit more…

The flags were interesting in light of discussion about a new flag for New Zealand.

None of them meant anything to me.

 


Flag of the day

July 13, 2015

The Flag Consideration Panel is inviting people to upload designs for a new flag.

There are more than 5000 in the gallery .

This is From the Southern Mountains to the Northern Sea by Melissa Hinves:

flag

 


Naming, blaming shaming

July 13, 2015

Labour’s housing spokesman Phil Twyford did some numbers on names and leapt to the conclusion that Auckland’s housing woes are caused by Chinese buyers.

(The transcript is here).

Thomas Lumley, Professor of Biostatistics counters his assertion in a post headlined what’s in a name?

. . . So, there is fairly good evidence that people of Chinese ethnicity are buying houses in Auckland at a higher rate than their proportion of the population.

The Labour claim extends this by saying that many of the buyers must be foreign. The data say nothing one way or the other about this, and it’s not obvious that it’s true. More precisely, since the existence of foreign investors is not really in doubt, it’s not obvious how far it’s true. The simple numbers don’t imply much, because relatively few people are housing buyers: for example, house buyers named “Wang” in the data set are less than 4% of Auckland residents named “Wang.” There are at least three other competing explanations, and probably more.

First, recent migrants are more likely to buy houses. I bought a house three years ago. I hadn’t previously bought one in Auckland. I bought it because I had moved to Auckland and I wanted somewhere to live. Consistent with this explanation, people with Korean and Indian names, while not over-represented to the same extent are also more likely to be buying than selling houses, by about the same ratio as Chinese.

Second, it could be that (some subset of) Chinese New Zealanders prefer real estate as an investment to, say, stocks (to an even greater extent than Aucklanders in general).  Third, it could easily be that (some subset of) Chinese New Zealanders have a higher savings rate than other New Zealanders, and so have more money to invest in houses.

Personally, I’d guess that all these explanations are true: that Chinese New Zealanders (on average) buy both homes and investment properties more than other New Zealanders, and that there are foreign property investors of Chinese ethnicity. But that’s a guess: these data don’t tell us — as the Herald explicitly points out.

One of the repeated points I  make on StatsChat is that you need to distinguish between what you measured and what you wanted to measure.  Using ‘Chinese’ as a surrogate for ‘foreign’ will capture many New Zealanders and miss out on many foreigners.

The misclassifications aren’t just unavoidable bad luck, either. If you have a measure of ‘foreign real estate ownership’ that includes my next-door neighbours and excludes James Cameron, you’re doing it wrong, and in a way that has a long and reprehensible political history.

Property Institute of New Zealand Chief Executive, Ashley Church also uses the term  ‘reprehensible’ and calls the claims ‘an exercise in unveiled racism’.

Mr Church describes the data used by Mr Twyford as ‘shonky’ and says ‘it has so many holes in it that it would be marked with an ‘f’ if it was submitted as a High School Economics project’.

“Mr Twyford uses ‘Asian sounding’ surnames as his means to identify which buyers are ‘Asian Investors’ – without any way of knowing whether the buyer is a New Zealand immigrant who lives here, or an investor based in China”.

“On that basis Mr Twyford should be blowing the whistle on Scottish foreign investment in this country – because a large number of kiwi homes are owned by people who have names starting with ‘Mc’ or ‘Mac’”.

“This is the sort of racist sideshow we’d expect from NZ First – not a serious political party with pretensions to hold the reins of power”.

Mr Church says that Mr Twyfords claims that the Auckland property market is being skewed by non-resident investors may prove to be correct – but he says that any action taken should be based on hard data and facts – and that the race of the buyer shouldn’t be a factor.

“We might be surprised to learn who the major investors really are. Work done by the Overseas Investment Office, in 2012, suggested that the biggest buyers were Americans, Brits, Canadians and Aussies – with the Chinese a long way behind”.

Mr Church says the Property Institute supports the recent move, by the Government, to create a foreign buyer register by requiring investors to have a New Zealand tax number.

“This will provide good, accurate, information and it will help us to determine whether we need to be taking steps to ban foreign investment in kiwi homes – or direct it into the construction of new houses, as is the case in Australia”.

If there is an issue with non-resident foreigners buying houses it’s not one of people from any particular country.

But in light of Twyford’s comments, who could blame anyone with a foreign-sounding name if, as Gravedodger suggests, they start buying property under some variation of The Smith Family Trust numbered whatever.

However, let’s not forget the real problem is not who’s buying houses but that there’s not enough of them in some areas nor who’s responsible for the imbalance between supply and demand:

Hugh Pavletich co-author of the Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey says blame the incompetent council:

If Auckland was a normal housing market, like most in North America, house prices would be at or below $300,000 for those on $100,000-a-year household incomes.

Thanks to the incompetent Auckland Council, an Auckland family with a household income of $100,000 is forced to pay $820,000 for a house.

The council is forcing them to pay an extra $520,000 for the house and this new study calling for more apartments in the suburbs is no solution to the crisis.

That money for an Auckland house must come from a grossly excessive mortgage, crippling the city’s residents for the remainder of their working life.

Add the interest over the life of this inflated mortgage and this $100,000-a-year household is forced to pay over $1 million in excessive mortgage costs, and all because the Auckland Council is incompetent.

The council is being deliberately misleading because it has lost control of its costs and has lost the capacity to meet its infrastructure responsibilities to its community

Land supply, infrastructure financing and processing for new housing are issues councils must tackle – and no council more than Auckland needs to deal with this.

Back to Professor Lumley:

But on top of that, if there is substantial foreign investment and if it is driving up prices, that’s only because of the artificial restrictions on the supply of Auckland houses. If Auckland could get its consent and zoning right, so that more money meant more homes, foreign investment wouldn’t be a problem for people trying to find somewhere to live. That’s a real problem, and it’s one that lies within the power of governments to solve.

It’s not difficult for people with a better grasp of statistics and without the political desperation that’s driving  Labour down this divisive path to counter the claims.

But let’s not forget that the naming, blaming and shaming by numbers can hurt people.

I received an email from a Young Nat, Melissa Hu, who wrote:

. . . I was born here, I study here, I work here and I’m a New Zealand citizen but because my last name sounds Chinese I’m apparently a big part of the housing affordability problem – (I’m actually of Mongolian descent but would Labour care about that?

Labour chose to make racially inflammatory comments based on half-baked data from an anonymous real estate agent in Auckland. They chose to say that there are too many Chinese buyers in the Auckland housing market based on whether your last name was Wang, Lee – or even like mine.

 The problem is, this data doesn’t actually prove whether the buyers are foreigners or not. Even NZIER’s Principal Economist said Labour’s comments were “very damaging for a multi-cultural, welcoming place like New Zealand”.

 I’ve lived here all my life, and I’m proud to call myself Kiwi. Young New Zealanders like me are ambitious, excited and open about New Zealand’s future. I don’t think my last name, or yours, has anything to do with trying to buy a house. 

 We need to be encouraging all Kiwis – young, old, European, Maori, Chinese, whatever – to aim high, work hard, create wealth and continue to raise our living standards. We also need the Government to keep taking common sense steps with councils to make more land available for housing. That’s why I support National they know there’s a problem and they have a real plan to fix it.

 We don’t need to start a “pick on the Chinese” attitude which could create more problems than it solves. Auckland’s housing problem is a supply issue – not a Chinese issue. We’re a multicultural, ambitious and prosperous country – I hope we stay that way.

There’s nothing new about this naming, blaming and shaming.

My father-in-law was the butt of some because his name was German, even though he’d though he’d not long returned from serving overseas with the New Zealand army.

How sad that nearly  70 years later it’s still a political tactic.

 


Quote of the day

July 13, 2015

Why do you spend $100 on beer when you can save it and spend it on your house one day? – Mark Li 


July 13 in history

July 13, 2015

100 BC  Julius Caesar, Dictator of the Roman Republic, was born  (d. 44 BC).

1174   William I of Scotland, a key rebel in the Revolt of 1173–1174, was captured by forces loyal to Henry II.

1558 Battle of Gravelines: Spanish forces led by Count Lamoral of Egmont defeated the French forces of Marshal Paul des Thermes.

1573  Eighty Years’ War: The Siege of Haarlem ends after seven months.

1643  English Civil War: Battle of Roundway Down –  Henry Wilmot, 1st Earl of Rochester, commanding the Royalist forces, won a crushing victory over the Parliamentarian Sir William Waller.

1787  The Continental Congress enacted the Northwest Ordinance establishing governing rules for the Northwest Territory establishing  procedures for the admission of new states and limiting the expansion of slavery.

1794  Battle of the Vosges between French forces and those of Prussia and Austria.

1821 Nathan Bedford Forrest, American Confederate cavalry officer, and founder of the original Ku Klux Klan, was born  (d. 1877).

1830 The General Assembly’s Institution, now the Scottish Church College, was founded by Alexander Duff and Raja Ram Mohan Roy, in Calcutta.

1854  In the Battle of Guaymas, Mexico, General Jose Maria Yanez stopped the French invasion led by Count Gaston de Raousset Boulbon.

1863 New York Draft Riots: Opponents of conscription began three days of rioting.

1878 Treaty of Berlin: The European powers redraw the map of the Balkans. Serbia, Montenegro and Romania became completely independent of the Ottoman empire.

1916 Vivian Walsh became the first New Zealander to obtain an aviator’s certificate, following the establishment in October 1915 of the New Zealand Flying School at Orakei.

Walsh becomes first NZer to obtain pilot's certificate

1919 The British airship R34 landed in Norfolk, completing the first airship return journey across the Atlantic in 182 hours of flight.

1923  The Hollywood Sign was officially dedicated in the hills above Hollywood. It originally read “Hollywoodland ” but the four last letters were dropped after renovation in 1949.

1928 Bob Crane, American actor, was born  (d. 1978).

1941  World War II: Montenegrins started popular uprising against the Axis Powers (Trinaestojulski ustanak).

1942 – Harrison Ford, American Actor, was born.

1942 – Roger McGuinn, American musician (The Byrds), was born.

1950 Ma Ying-jeou, President  of China, former mayor of Taipei, former chairman of the Kuomintang (KMT), was born.

1960  Ian Hislop, British writer, editor of Private Eye, was born.

1973  Alexander Butterfield revealed the existence of the Nixon tapes to the special Senate committee investigating the Watergate break in.

1985  The Live Aid benefit concerts  in several places including London, Philadelphia, Sydney and Moscow.

1985 – United States Vice President George H.W. Bush became the Acting President for the day when President Ronald Reagan underwent surgery.

2003 – French DGSE personnel abort an operation to rescue Íngrid Betancourt from FARC rebels in Colombia, causing a political scandal when details are leaked to the press.

2011 – Mumbai was rocked by three bomb blasts during the evening rush hour, killing 26 and injuring 130.

2013 – Typhoon Soulik killed at least 9 people and affected more than 160 million in East China and Taiwan.

Sourced from NZ History Online & Wikipedia


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