National’s trends from 20 June and from 20 August to the latest interviewing midpoint of 15 September, projected forward five days to tomorrow, points towards around 47.5% on the final count. Take out 1%-1.5% to account for the overweighting of National by the Fairfax Ipsos poll by comparison with all others in most of its recent polling (but not the most recent): that would give 46%-46.5%.
The trends for Labour point to 25% and for the Greens to 12.5%-13% . . .
The latest polls took National’s lead over Labour and the Greens down to a still healthy 8.2%. . . .
New Zealand First’s latest average was 7.6%, the Conservatives’ 4.3%. Internet-Mana was down to 1.4%, the Maori party was 1.2% (just enough to ensure two seats), ACT was 0.4% and United Future 0.1%.
New Zealand First’s trend from 20 June points to 6.5%. But, since most of its rise was in the past six weeks, the trend from 20 August may be more accurate. It points to 7.5%. The same last-six-weeks upward tick applies for the Conservatives. Their trend from August 20 points to around 4.2%. Internet Mana’s downtrend points it toward 1.2%. . . .
There’s no doubt National will be well ahead of Labour and the Greens combined but that doesn’t guarantee a National-led government.
This reinforced the need for anyone who wants stable government, a growing economy and the social dividends that enables, to give their party vote to National.