Who loses from non-voters?

The common perception that centre-left parties like Labour and the Greens are hit much harder than National when their supporters do not turn up to vote does not hold up in light of polling analysis released today by the Election Data Consortium.

The Consortium is made up of polling company Roy Morgan and data analytics company Qrious. The analysis shows 36 percent of those aged between 18 and 24 who are enrolled but state they are unlikely to vote, indicated they preferred National. In comparison, younger non-voters indicated 39 percent of them preferred Labour and 19 percent supported the Greens.

“This is lower than National’s general polling support across all age groups but higher than many people probably believe the party receives from this block of potential voters,” says Qrious spokesman Cyrus Facciano.

“The rule-of-thumb is that lower turnout by young voters is automatically bad for the centre-left. That is true to some extent – but it is nowhere near the election-turning block of votes that some make it out to be.”


The pattern is similar across other ages, though these groups are more likely to vote than younger people. In the 35 to 49 age group, 39 percent of non-voters said they preferred National. . .


This is why National candidates and volunteers are putting so much work into letting supporters know the importance of voting.

The election is not a foregone conclusion and people in or leaning towards the blue end of the political spectrum who don’t vote could allow a Labour/Green/NZ First/Internet-Mana coalition into government.

3 Responses to Who loses from non-voters?

  1. Andrei says:

    The election is not a foregone conclusion and people in or leaning towards the blue end of the political spectrum who don’t vote could allow a Labour/Green/NZ First/Internet-Mana coalition into government

    People like to vote for something positive

    This is what the National Government under the stewardship of John Key has brought to New Zealand.

    Family and marriage are central to what is important and everything else is about supporting that.

    This country has lost its way, meaning and purpose and if the Government that horrifies you is formed after the election so what


  2. Dave Kennedy says:

    I think all parties are aware of the importance of getting out the vote, especially ensuring that the youngest voters do. Research shows those who vote when they are young are more likely to continue voting.

    I was aware when talking to young people in Invercargill that few knew enough about the different parties to feel comfortable voting. I contacted all of our Invercargill candidates to see if they would join me in collectively talking to year 13 students in our secondary schools about our respective parties and policies. I got great support and so far we have spoken to over 200 year 13 students.

    It was also good to show students that local candidates can cooperate and ‘dirty politics’ is not how we do things in the south. I have enjoyed working with Sarah Dowie, the young National Candidate, her background in working for DoC and her willingness to work with me gives me hope for the future of National.

    This should be happening in all electorates and I was impressed with Southland Boys High School because they even got the returning officer into the school to talk about the voting process and MMP. Civics education should be a priority for all schools, especially in election year.


  3. Dave Kennedy says:

    I have also enjoyed telling students that my ambition is to follow in my son’s foot steps, he got to parliament ahead of me as a youth MP four years ago 😉


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