Two new polls have affirmed a moderate downward trend in National’s support since July — but only to a still-high level of support at which to govern it would need, at most, support from ACT’s and United Future’s single electorate seats. National’s latest four-poll average was 48.4%.
Labour looks to be troughing. But it also appeared to have troughed in July, only to drop again in early August. Its latest average was 26.2%, below its whole-of-2014 average of 28.8%.
The polls in the latest four-poll average were all taken after Nicky Hager’s Dirty Politics book was launched on August 13 but before Judith Collins’ sudden resignation on 30 August. The latest midpoint between the start and finish of interviewing was 25 August.
Amidst all this, the Greens held steady at a 12.5% average, which would net it 16 seats, half of the total Labour could expect on its reading.
The two winners from the fallout from National and Labour have been New Zealand First, average 5.2%, and the Conservatives, average 3.1%, both slightly down from recent peaks. Internet-Mana was 2.6%, the Maori party 0.9% (not enough to bring in additional seats to Te Ururoa Flavell’s electorate seat unless other candidates win electorate seats), ACT 0.4% and United Future 0.2%.
A Maori Television poll has Maori Party leader and sitting MP Te Ururoa Flavell with 50% support in Waiariki.
The Maori Party has voted with the opposition more than the government. But given the choice of working with a National-led government of propping up a Labour/Green/NZ First/ Internet/Mana one it is almost certain to opt for stability and certainty rather than instability.