Election outcome less certain

28/08/2014

It was inevitable that polls would tighten as the election gets closer and last night’s 3 News Reid Research poll shows that’s happening:

August 19-25, 1000 people polled, margin of error 3.1 percent

National 45 percent, down 2.5 percent
Labour 26.4 percent, down 2.6 percent
Greens 13.5 percent, up 0.5 percent
NZ First 6.3 percent, up 1.7 percent
Conservative 4.6 percent, up 2.1 percent
Internet Mana 2.1 percent, up 0.1 percent
Maori Party 0.7 percent, down 0.1 percent
United Future 0.4 percent, up 0.2 percent
ACT 0.3 percent, no change

Seats in the house:

National 57
ACT 1
United Future 1
Maori Party 2
Right total: 61

Labour 33
Greens 17
Internet Mana 3
Left total: 53

NZ First 8

The Maori Party could go left or right.

But while it has voted against National more times than with it, the choice of being in a stable National-led government supported by Act, United Future and possibly New Zealand First would almost certainly be preferable to it than supporting an unstable Labour, Green, NZ First, Internet Mana coalition.

The Conservative Party is now in spitting distance of the 5% threshold.

Kiwiblog shows that if it makes it into parliament, Labour won’t be able to govern:

Conservatives 4.6%

Centre-Right 59 seats (Nat 57, ACT 1, UF1)

Centre-Left 53 seats (Lab 33, Greens 17, Internet Mana 3)

Centre 11 seats (NZ First 8, Maori 3)

This means National would need the Maori Party to govern, and Labour would need both NZ First and the Maori Party (plus Greens, Mana)

Conservatives 5.0%

Centre-Right 62 seats (Nat 54,  Conservatives 6, ACT 1, UF1)

Centre-Left 51 seats (Lab 32, Greens 16, Internet Mana 3)

Centre 11 seats (NZ First 8, Maori 3)

This means National would still need the Maori Party (or NZ First) to govern, but Labour would be unable to govern under any combination.

As another example of MMP’s perversity, National would have more seats if the Conservative Party didn’t make it into parliament but could be

more likely to govern if the Conservatives do cross the line because Labour wouldn’t be able to cobble together a coalition.


August 28 in history

28/08/2014

489  Theodoric, king of the Ostrogoths defeats Odoacer at the Battle of Isonzo, forcing his way into Italy.

1189  Third Crusade: the Crusaders began the Siege of Acre under Guy of Lusignan.

1349 6,000 Jews were killed in Mainz, accused of being the cause of the plague.

1511  The Portuguese conquered Malacca.

1542 Turkish-Portuguese War (1538-1557) – Battle of Wofla: the Portuguese were scattered, their leader Christovão da Gama captured and later executed.

1609  Henry Hudson discovered Delaware Bay.

1619  Ferdinand II was elected emperor of the Holy Roman Empire.

1640 Second Bishop’s War: King Charles I’s English army lost to a Scottish Covenanter force at the Battle of Newburn.

1749 Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, German writer and scientist (d. 1832).

1774 Elizabeth Ann Seton, American-born Catholic saint, was born (d. 1821).

1789  William Herschel discovered a new moon of Saturn.

1810  Battle of Grand Port – the French accepted the surrender of a British Navy fleet.

1828 Leo Tolstoy, Russian author, was born (d. 1910).

1830  The Tom Thumb presaged the first railway service in the United States.

1845 The first issue of Scientific American magazine was published.

1859  A geomagnetic storm caused the Aurora Borealis to shine so brightly it was seen clearly over parts of USA, Europe, and as far away as Japan.

1862 American Civil War: Second Battle of Bull Run.

1879  Cetshwayo, last king of the Zulus, was captured by the British.

1884 Peter Fraser, former Prime Minister of New Zealand, was born (d. 1950).

1898  Caleb Bradham renamed his carbonated soft drink “Pepsi-Cola”.

1901  Silliman University was founded in the Philippines,  the first American private school in the country.

1906 John Betjeman, English poet, was born (d. 1984).

1913 Queen Wilhelmina opened the Peace Palace in The Hague.

1914  World War I: the Royal Navy defeated the German fleet in the Battle of Heligoland Bight.

1916  World War I: Germany declared war on Romania.

1916 – World War I: Italy declared war on Germany.

1917  Ten Suffragettes wre arrested while picketing the White House.

1924 Janet Frame, New Zealand author, was born (d. 2004).

1924 The Georgian opposition stages the August Uprising against the Soviet Union.

1930 Windsor Davies, British actor, was born.

1931  France and Soviet Union signed a treaty of non-aggression.

1937  Toyota Motors became an independent company.

1943  World War II: in Denmark, a general strike against the Nazi occupation started.

1944  World War II: Marseille and Toulon were liberated.

1948 Danny Seraphine, American musician (Chicago), was born.

1951 Wayne Osmond, American singer (The Osmonds), was born.

1953  Nippon Television broadcast Japan’s first television show, including its first TV advertisement.

1954 Pauline Parker and Juliet Hulme were convicted of murdering Parker’s mother Honora.

'Heavenly Creatures' found guilty of murder

1955  Black teenager Emmett Till was murdered in Mississippi, galvanizing the nascent American Civil Rights Movement.

1961 Motown released what would be its first #1 hit, “Please Mr. Postman” by The Marvelettes.

1963 March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom: Martin Luther King, Jr. gave his I Have a Dream speech.

1963 Emily Hoffert and Janice Wylie were murdered in their Manhattan flat, prompting the events that led to the passing of the Miranda Rights.

1964  The Philadelphia race riot began.

1965 Shania Twain, Canadian singer, was born.

1979  An IRA bomb exploded on the Grand Place in Brussels.

1986  United States Navy officer Jerry A. Whitworth was sentenced to 365 years imprisonment for espionage for the Soviet Union.

1988 Ramstein airshow disaster: three aircraft of the Frecce Tricolori demonstration team collided. The wreckage fell into the crowd killing  75 and seriously injuring 346.

1990  Iraq declared Kuwait to be its newest province.

1990 The Plainfield Tornado: an F5 tornado hit Plainfield and Joliet, Illinois, killing 28 people.

1991  Ukraine declared its independence from the Soviet Union.

1991 Collapse of the Soviet Union – Mikhail Gorbachev resigned as Secretary of the Soviet Communist Party.

1992 Canterbury’s “Big Snow“.

Canterbury's 'Big Snow'

1996  Charles, Prince of Wales and Diana, Princess of Wales divorced.

2003  An electricity blackout cut off power to around 500,000 people living in south east England and brought 60% of London’s underground rail network to a halt.

2011 – Hurricane Irene struck the United States east coast, killing 47 and causing an estimated $15.6 billion in damage.

Sourced from NZ History Online & Wikipedia


Word of the day

27/08/2014

Hwyl – a stirring feeling of emotional motivation and energy.


Labour tells truth

27/08/2014

David Farrar has found a Labour MP telling the truth:

jobcuts

 

It’s not a parody and it’s certainly not positive.

It might be a SMOG – social media own goal – but given Labour’s anti-progress policies it’s also the truth.


Party and candidate lists

27/08/2014

The Electoral Commission has released the party and candidate lists for next month’s election.

The registered parties seeking the party vote are:

ACT New Zealand

Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party

Ban1080

Conservative

Democrats for Social Credit

Focus New Zealand

Green Party

Internet MANA

Labour Party

Māori Party

National Party

New Zealand First Party

NZ Independent Coalition

The Civilian Party

United Future

13 registered political parties contested the general election in 2011.

Candidates

A total of 554 candidates (electorate and list) are standing in this year’s election. This compares with 544 candidates in the 2011 election.

71 candidates are on the party list only and 114 are standing as electorate candidates only.  38 electorate candidates are standing as independents or representing unregistered parties (only registered parties are eligible to contest the party vote).

The number of candidates standing both as an electorate candidate and on a party list is 369.

The electorates with the most candidates are Epsom and Tauranga with 11 and the electorate with the lowest number of candidates is Hauraki-Waikato with 3.

390 men and 164 women are standing in the 2014 General Election. In 2011 there were 397 men and 147 women standing.

The elections website www.elections.org.nz has full information by electorate including candidates, advance voting places and election day voting places at

www.elections.org.nz/events/2014-general-election/information-voters-who-when-and-where

The party lists are available at www.elections.org.nz/2014partylists

Party

Number of Candidates

List Candidates

Electorate Candidates

ACT New Zealand

44

41

39

Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party

13

13

10

Ban1080

9

9

5

Conservative

64

20

64

Democrats for Social Credit

35

35

30

Focus New Zealand

8

8

2

Green Party

60

59

57

Internet MANA (figures include Electorate Candidates standing for MANA Movement or Internet Party)

35

32

Internet Party – 15

MANA Movement – 18

Labour Party

85

64

71

Māori Party

27

24

24

National Party

75

75

64

New Zealand First Party

32

31

31

NZ Independent Coalition

10

10

4

The Civilian Party

8

8

0

United Future

11

11

11

Unregistered party and independent candidates

38

N/A

38

Total

554

440

483

To see the break-down of list and electorate candidates click on the link at the top of the page.

Does anyone know why only 65 candidates appear on the published list when a few parties have more than that number of candidates?


Rural round-up

27/08/2014

$150 million boost for Rural Broadband Initiative:

National’s Communications and Information Technology spokeswoman, Amy Adams, today announced a re-elected National-led Government will establish a new $150 million fund to extend the Rural Broadband Initiative (RBI).

Ms Adams made the announcement in Greymouth with Prime Minister and National Party Leader John Key.

“The RBI is making an immense difference to the way our rural firms do business, the way our kids learn and the way our health services deliver to us as patients,” Ms Adams says.

“Already, nearly 250,000 households and businesses have access to faster broadband under the RBI. However, National wants to see more rural homes and businesses benefit from faster, more reliable internet. . .

New partnership a boost for sheep and beef farming:

Lincoln University officially launched its lower-North Island base for vocational training and demonstration in lamb and beef finishing systems at a function in the Rangitikei today.

The University, along with the newly-formed Lincoln-Westoe Trust, will operate the 400 hectare Westoe Farm north of Bulls as a training facility, offering land-based certificate programmes for students looking to enter into primary sector careers. The training will have a particular emphasis on sheep and beef farming, and a special focus on training youth from Te Rūnanga o Ngāti Apa.

Over time, the Westoe Farm will also be developed as a demonstration farm for the finishing of lambs and the raising and finishing of beef cattle. This demonstration activity will be underpinned by objective scientific measurement of the farm’s performance, including its environmental footprint. Demonstration activity will be supported by commercial sponsors. . . .

A1 beta-casein a threat to dairy industry – Keith Woodford:

Evidence that A1 beta-casein might be a human health issue has been available for more than 15 years. However, the mainstream dairy industry has always fought against the notion that it might be important.

Back in 2007, I wrote a book called ‘Devil in the Milk’ which brought together the evidence at that time. The mainstream industry and even some elements within the Government were not impressed. They made it clear that this was an issue which New Zealand did not need to air publicly. The industry, with considerable help from the Food Safety Authority, was largely successful in dousing the public concerns, leaving just a few little puffs of smoke to remind those who were watching carefully that the fire might not be totally out. . . .

Landcorp, keen user of Fonterra’s guaranteed milk price, looks to reduce dairy exposure – Jonathan Underhill:

(BusinessDesk) – Landcorp, New Zealand’s biggest corporate farmer, has been an enthusiastic participant in Fonterra Cooperative Group’s guaranteed milk price scheme as it reduces exposure to volatile dairy prices, while looking at ways to reduce the dominance of dairy in its portfolio.

The state-owned farmer’s milk revenue soared 70 percent to $129 million in the year ended June 30, contributing to a more-than doubling of operating profit to $30 million. It won’t see a similar benefit from dairy prices in the current year, given dairy prices have tumbled this year from their highs in February.

“We’re making sure we don’t get too reliant on dairy income so the more volatile dairy sector doesn’t become too dominant in the portfolio,” chief executive Steven Carden told BusinessDesk. Landcorp’s strategy includes exploring fixed-price contracts, hedging and greater cooperation with customers across both dairy and meat, he said. . . .

Country of origin law rejected – report:

The Meat Industry Association is supporting the finding by a World Trade Organisation disputes panel that has ruled against the United States over a country of origin meat labelling law.

Canada and Mexico, backed by New Zealand and Australia, amongst others, opposed a new US rule that requires more information on labels about the origins of beef, pork and other meats.

They regard the country of origin law as a potential trade restriction. . . .

Conservation grant supports bird recovery:

Conservation Minister Dr Nick Smith today announced Wildbase Recovery Community Trust is to receive a $90,000 grant from the Department of Conservation to put towards a new state-of-the-art rehabilitation facility for birds and wildlife.

“New Zealand’s most challenging conservation issue is the decline in our native bird populations. We need to raise public awareness of the threat from pests like rats, stoats and possums that kill 25 million native birds each year. We need facilities like Wildbase Recovery to improve public understanding of our special birds and save those birds that are injured and can be rehabilitated back into the wild,” Dr Smith says.

Wildbase Recovery Community Trust is a charitable trust formed in partnership with local iwi, Palmerston North City Council, Massey University, Rotary and the Department of Conservation for the sole purpose of building, operating and maintaining the community-funded Wildbase Recovery. . .

Benefits from dairy demonstration farm New Zealand wide:

 A new demonstration dairy farm in the Waikato has a key role in helping New Zealand achieve the Government’s target of doubling revenue from primary industries by 2025.

This was a consistent theme from speakers at the launch of the St Peter’s – Lincoln University Dairy Demonstration farm in Cambridge on Thursday 14 August. 

The Demonstration Dairy Farm has set its sights on being in the top 3% of farms in the region for both profitability and environmental performance.  The overall aim of the farm is to promote the sustainable development of profitable dairying, principally in the Waikato but also the greater North Island.  This will be achieved through the implementation of proven scientific research, best practice farming coupled with scientific monitoring of impacts in a collaborative environment with farmers. . .

Akarua Purchases Vineyards on Felton Road

Akarua is delighted to announce a major vineyard purchase with the acquisition of vineyards located in Felton Road and Lowburn finalised on Friday 22 August 2014.

Akarua, established in 1996 by Sir Clifford Skeggs is the largest family owned vineyard in Central Otago with single estate holdings in Cairnmuir Road Bannockburn, this recent purchase will significantly boost their total vineyard area to 100 hectares in Central Otago.

David Skeggs, Managing Director of the Skeggs Group said that that the company had been actively looking at purchasing developed vineyard in Central Otago for the last 2 years. . . .

New Zealand organic pioneers place farming unit up for sale:

A sizeable landholding which is part of one of New Zealand’s oldest organic farming operations has been placed on the market for sale.

The farms just north of Tolaga Bay on the East Coast and trading under the brand Kiwi Organics, have been run by the Parker family for more than 50 years – the last 23 of those under ‘certified organic’ branding. Owners Mike and Bridget Parker are former winners of the Heinz Watties Organic Farmer of the Year title.

Kiwi Organics farm and manufacture primary products for customers throughout the Pacific Rim – including Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Australia. The company’s products are Bio Gro Certified, USDA/NOP Certified, and EU Certified and Gluten Free. . .

 


Fonterra expands in NZ and proposes partnership in China

27/08/2014

A newsletter to suppliers from Fonterra chair John Wilson announces plans to expand processing in New Zealand and the proposal for a new partnership in China:

Your Board has given approval to build a new high efficiency milk powder drier in the North Island and further increase milk processing capacity in the South Island to help meet global demand for dairy products.

This investment, totalling $555 million, will grow the Co-operative’s processing capability and allow for more flexibility to better optimise production.

New Zealand is our most important milk pool.  Our strategy is to increase earnings by driving more of your milk into higher value categories.  It’s all about turning the wheel from commodities to higher-margin products.

Key points on the new Lichfield drier:

  • Capable of processing up to 4.4. million litres per day
  • Similar in size to the world’s largest drier at Darfield which produces up to 30 metric tonnes of Whole Milk Powder per hour, and 700 metric tonnes per day
  • Will use the latest energy-efficient processing and water reuse technology.

Three plants will also be installed at our Edendale site in Southland.  Key points are:

  • Milk Protein Concentrate (MPC) plant which separates protein from skim milk and turns it into protein powder – capable of processing 1.1 million litres per day
  • Reverse Osmosis (RO) plant which will increase capacity on an existing drier by 300,000 litres per day
  • Anhydrous Milk Fat (AMF) plant capable of processing 550,000 litres of milk into cream per day

In total, the development of Edendale will increase capacity by 1.4 million in milk, and 550,000 litres of cream processing per day.

Global Partnership with Beingmate

We are establishing a global partnership with Beingmate, which is one of the leading infant food manufacturers in China.  Beingmate is already a long-standing customer – and is a well-established and respected company in China.

Our partnership will be the next milestone for our strategy, as it will increase the volume and value of our ingredients and branded infant products exported to China.

Together we will create a fully integrated global supply chain from the farm gate direct to China’s consumers, using Fonterra’s milk pools and manufacturing sites in New Zealand, Australia, and Europe.

This global supply chain will see more of our high quality dairy ingredients and our Anmum™ brand exported from here in New Zealand. It will see more high value paediatric products made in Australia for China at the Darnum plant – that is our second milk pool. And it includes a third milk pool in Europe where whey specialty ingredients will be manufactured at our new JV plant in the Netherlands, and through our alliance with Dairy Crest in the UK.

This partnership is about volume and value.  The value will come from accessing Beingmate’s extensive distribution and sales network in the infant formula market in China.  This market is today worth around NZ$18 billion – and is expected to be worth nearly NZ$33 billion by 2017.

This partnership will come together in two phases:

We are starting the process to issue a partial tender offer to gain up to a 20 per cent stake in Beingmate. Depending on the response to the tender offer, Fonterra’s total investment in the global partnership will be in the range of NZ$615 million (including proceeds from the JV in Australia), funded through debt.  

After gaining regulatory approvals and Fonterra satisfactorily completing the partial tender offer, Fonterra and Beingmate will set up a joint venture to purchase Fonterra’s Darnum plant in Australia and establish a distribution agreement to sell Fonterra’s Anmum brand in China.

The purpose of the proposed joint venture will be to manufacture nutritional powders, including infant formula and growing up milk powder at Darnum, for Beingmate as well as Fonterra.

Beingmate will own 51 per cent of the JV to satisfy Chinese regulatory requirements.

The JV will be governed by a Board, and Fonterra and Beingmate will each appoint two directors. 

We will manage Darnum’s operations, under a formal management agreement.  We will also supply raw milk to Darnum.

Summary

Today’s announcements are a major step forward in our strategy to be a globally relevant co-operative so that we can will deliver increased returns to our farmers – through both the Milk Price and dividend – during the ups and downs of global dairy price volatility.  We are financing the increases to processing capacity and our partnership with Beingmate from a solid balance sheet position, and a strong gearing position will be maintained.  These investments are intended strengthen returns by:

  • Turning more New Zealand milk into higher value products  
  • Optimising the use of our Co-operative’s global assets  
  • Investing in capacity and flexibility of our New Zealand assets  
  • Building a fully integrated global supply chain. . . .

This is very good news for the company and the communities where it is expanding processing because of the jobs that will be created.

The board also decided to hold the forecast farmgate payout at $6 a kilo.

Along with a previously announced estimated dividend range of 20-25 cents per share, the forecast Cash Payout for the season is $6.20-$6.25.

The decision to maintain the forecast Farmgate Milk Price reflects the longer term outlook for international prices for dairy. Current market views supported by our own forecasting indicate commodity prices improving later this year or in early 2015, with global demand for dairy continuing to grow year-on-year. 

While the long-term market fundamentals remain sound, we need to recognise that the current conditions are difficult and there remains further downside risk.

There is still volatility. This reflects challenges with supply and demand following a good dairy season globally. Given these factors, the forecast is our best judgement at this time.

It is early in the season, and it is important to continue exercising caution with your farming business budgets. The reality is, we expect to see ongoing volatility, and we will keep you informed as we move forward.

Russia’s decision to block European imports and cheaper grain prices which are leading to an increase in production in the USA will both have an impact on the supply of milk and other dairy products.

Fonterra and its suppliers are right to be cautious.

For more see media releases:

FONTERRA INCREASES PROCESSING CAPACITY TO HELP MEET GLOBAL DEMAND

FONTERRA AND BEINGMATE INITIATE GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP IN CHINA’S HIGH-VALUE INFANT FORMULA MARKET

FONTERRA MAINTAINS FORECAST FARMGATE MILK PRICE FOR 2014/15 SEASON


A tale of two campaigns

27/08/2014

Andrea Vance writes on a tale of two campaigns:

. . . One is slick, polished and organised to the last detail. The other is ad hoc, chaotic and oddly low-energy.

National leader John Key whizzed his way across Auckland on Monday, barely pausing for a breath. A brisk shopping centre walkabout was memorable, mainly for the sheer numbers who stopped him for a selfie. The campaign bus rolled up, stacked with supporters in their Team Key sweaters.

Key is merciless in keeping the exchanges swift – a grin for the camera phone, and an exchange of pleasantries and he’s on to the next voter.

Fast forward a day, and his opposite number David Cunliffe was on the road in Rotorua, campaigning with ex-television presenter Tamati Coffey.

The day started with a selfie – and there were plenty – but to be blunt, Coffey was the bigger drawcard.

A stop-off at a local primary school excited pupils, especially when told a Labour government would give them each a tablet. But with only a handful of eligible voters in the room, reporters wondered how effective the visit was.

A scheduled town centre walkabout was delayed by 35 minutes as Cunliffe, Coffey and activists stopped for a curry. “An army marches on its stomach,” Cunliffe said later. On the stroll he talked with eight people, two of whom were in town from overseas. . .

There are many reasons for the differences.

Some of them are personal – the Prime Minister is popular as a man as well as a politician, the would-be PM is not.

Some are political – National has a good record that’s working for New Zealand. That gives it a strong foundation on which to base its campaign to keep the country on the right track.

Labour doesn’t.

Some are organisational.

National is unified.

Labour isn’t.

National has tens of thousands of members who are working with and for candidates.

Labour doesn’t.

It’s a tale of two parties.

National is positive and unified, Labour isn’t and the campaigns reflect that.


Labour negative on labour

27/08/2014

Labour’s campaign on positivity took several hits at the ASB finance spokespeople’s debate in Queenstown last night.

The worst was from its finance spokesman David Parker in response to a question on immigration when he said:

“I don’t think that in a world that needs less labour the answer is more labour.”

He then went on to talk about low value immigrants, was pulled up by the chair Duncan Garner and tried to turn it into immigrants doing low value jobs.

Then he repeated what he’d already said that in a world with a decreasing need for labour because of technology the answer wasn’t more labour.

That is an extraordinarily ignorant statement which shows no understanding of how an economy and the job market works.

It also demonstrates a depressingly negative attitude from a party which obviously doesn’t understand wealth creation.

Businesses go and others come, jobs go and others come and in a growing economy more come than go.

They might be different jobs and will need differing levels of skill and receive differing levels of pay, but they will be jobs.

Finance Minister Bill English made that point by saying that we will need 150,000 people to fill the jobs that will be created.

Parker presumably meant labour with a small l but look at his sentence with a big L:

I don’t think that in a world that needs less Labour the answer is more Labour.

Now that’s positive.


Peters scared of Craig

27/08/2014

The Queenstown ASB debate between the finance spokespeople for five parties attracted a sell-out crowd last night.

debate

The photo shows, chair Duncan Garner, Finance Minister Bill English for National, Conservative leader Colin Craig, Labour’s David Parker, Act’s Jamie Whyte and Green Russel Norman.

Duncan Garner said that the Maori Party declined the invitation, Mana didn’t reply and New Zealand First leader Winston Peters refused to come if Craig was there.

The chair gave each speaker three minutes to give a pitch then gave them a few questions before taking questions from the floor.

Labour’s trying to campaign on being positive but its finance spokesman started by being negative about the economy and the outlook.

Jamie Whyte started by quoting Adam Smith:

Little else is requisite to carry a state to the highest degree of opulence from the lowest barbarism but peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice: all the rest being brought about by the natural course of things.

He also asked who’s going to make better decisions – someone putting their own money at risk in search of profit of someone using other people’s money in search of votes?

Duncan Garner asked him to name one Green policy he agreed with and he said he couldn’t think of one.

The question Duncan Garner put to Russel Norman at the end of his three minutes was whether he could say something good about the Finance Minister and he said he’d been very responsible.

Colin Craig rattled through his policy which includes tax cuts at the lower end.

The chair asked him to say whether he’d go with National or Labour if he had the choice after the election. He said National because the party would have the most votes.

Clutha Southland MP Bill English got the biggest welcome from his home crowd.

He started by giving people the credit for their resilience, responsible and work and how important that was because the economy doesn’t just exist in an office in Wellington, it’s what people do.

That, in partnership with National-led government’s careful management of public finances, had put New Zealand back on the right track.

He said we now have a platform built on our resilience the positive encouragement from government and the most positive Prime Minister New Zealand has had that will allow us to have sustainable growth.

“You have set that direction and we can keep it,” he said.

There’s a video of the debate here.


Labour spending scares itself

27/08/2014

Labour’s propensity for over taxing and over spending is scaring voters, it’s scaring the Green Party and it’s scaring itself:

David Cunliffe and Labour are still committed to irresponsibly spending all of the next four Budgets before the election, despite yesterday attempting – and failing – to recast their ropey fiscal forecasts, National Party Finance Spokesman Bill English says.

“New Zealanders can now see that under David Cunliffe economic history would repeat itself,” he says.

“Having been part of a Labour government that left New Zealand in recession with high interest rates, forecasts of never-ending deficits and ever-rising debt, David Cunliffe has again confirmed he has learnt nothing from the fiscal and economic mess Labour left for New Zealanders.

“Two election campaigns on, he has reverted to form with new spending promises still totalling nearly $18 billion over four years. Having been criticised for being fiscally irresponsible, he belatedly realised he had over-stretched and has attempted to back down. But it hasn’t worked.

“David Cunliffe has scared New Zealanders with his spending plans and he’s scared his partners the Greens. He’s now even scared himself. No wonder the Greens are calling for a full audit of Labour’s numbers.

“The trouble for Labour is that its claims of trimming extra spending just don’t stack up because proper costings of Labour’s tweaked promises still add up to around $18 billion over four years. And that’s before you add the Greens’ promises to spend an extra $10 billion over the same period – and who knows how many billions more by the Dotcom party.

“By contrast, National has committed only a small fraction of future Budgets. This will provide us with flexibility to deal with future shocks, speed up debt repayment or provide future tax reductions should there be room to do so.”

Labour’s spending is predicated on more tax income on the back of higher tax rates and new taxes, including a Capital Gains Tax.

It ignores the fact that increasing the tax rate and adding new taxes doesn’t bring in a corresponding increase in the tax take and can reduce it.

On top of that its less flexible employment law and other costs to and constraints on business will act as a handbrake on economic growth, wage rises and job prospects.

And that’s without taking into accounts the expensive price it will have to pay to cobble together a coalition with the Green, New Zealand First and Internet Mana parties.


August 27 in history

27/08/2014

479 BC Persian forces led by Mardonius were routed by Pausanias, the Spartan commander of the Greek army in the Battle of Plataea.

410 The sacking of Rome by the Visigoths ended after three days.

663 Battle of Baekgang: Remnants of the Korean Baekje Kingdom and their Yamato Japanese allies engaged the combined naval forces of the Tang Chinese and Silla Koreans on the Geum River.

1172  Henry the Young King and Margaret of France were crowned as junior king and queen of England.

1232  The Formulary of Adjudications was promulgated by Regent Hōjō Yasutoki.

1689  The Treaty of Nerchinsk was signed by Russia and the Qing empire.

1776 The Battle of Long Island:  British forces under General William Howe defeated Americans under General George Washington.

1793 French counter-revolution: the port of Toulon revolted and admitted the British fleet, which landed troops and seized the port leading to Siege of Toulon.

1798 Wolfe Tone’s United Irish and French forces clashed with the British Army in the Battle of Castlebar.

1803 Edward Beecher, American theologian, was born (d. 1895).

1810 Napoleonic Wars: The French Navy defeated the British Royal Navy, preventing them from taking the harbour of Grand Port on Île de France.

1813  French Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte defeated a larger force of Austrians, Russians, and Prussians at the Battle of Dresden.

1828 Uruguay was formally proclaimed independent at preliminary peace talks brokered by Great Britain between Brazil and Argentina during the Argentina-Brazil War.

1859 Petroleum was discovered in Titusville, Pennsylvania leading to the world’s first commercially successful oil well.

1875 Katharine McCormick, American women’s rights activist, was born (d. 1967).

1877 Charles Rolls, British co-founder of Rolls-Royce, was born (d. 1910).

1896 Anglo-Zanzibar War: the shortest war in world history (09:00 to 09:45) between the United Kingdom and Zanzibar.

1899 C. S. Forester, British author, was born (d. 1966).

1904 The foundation stone for Victoria College (now Victoria University of Wellington), was laid.

Foundation stone for Victoria’s first building laid

1904 Norah Lofts, British author, was born (d. 1983).

1908 Sir Donald Bradman, Australian cricketer, was born (d. 2001).

1908 Lyndon B. Johnson, 36th President of the United States, was born (d. 1973).

1911 Joseph Pawelka escaped from Wellington’s Terrace Gaol – the last in a series of bold but seemingly effortless prison escapes Pawelka made over an 18-month period.

Pawelka's last prison break

1921 The British installed the son of Sharif Hussein bin Ali as King Faisal I of Iraq.

1922 The Turkish army took the Aegean city of Afyonkarahisar from the Greeks.

1928 The Kellogg-Briand Pact outlawing war was signed by the first fifteen nations.

1932 Antonia Fraser, British author, was born.

1939 First flight of the turbojet-powered Heinkel He 178, the world’s first jet aircraft.

1942 Daryl Dragon, American keyboardist (Captain & Tennille), was born.

1947 John Morrison, New Zealand cricketer, was born.

1962  The Mariner 2 unmanned space mission was launched to Venus by NASA.

1979  An IRA bomb killed  Louis Mountbatten, 1st Earl Mountbatten of Burma and 3 others in Sligo. Another bomb near Warrenpoint killed 18 British soldiers.

1982  Turkish military diplomat Colonel Atilla Altıkat was shot and killed in Ottawa. Justice Commandos Against Armenian Genocide claimed responsibility, saying they were avenging the massacre of 1.5 million Armenians in the 1915 Armenian Genocide.

1985 The Nigerian government was peacefully overthrown by Army Chief of Staff Major General Ibrahim Babangida.

1991 – Moldova declared independence from the USSR.

1993  The Rainbow Bridge, connecting Tokyo’s Shibaura and the island of Odaiba, was completed.

2000  The 540-metre (1,772 ft)-tall Ostankino Tower in Moscow caught fire, killing three people.

2003 Mars made its closest approach to Earth in nearly 60,000 years, passing 34,646,418 miles (55,758,005 km) distant.

2006  Comair Flight 5191 crashed on takeoff from Blue Grass Airport in Lexington, Kentucky killing 49 of the 50 passengers and crew.

2009 – The Burmese military junta and ethnic armies began three days of violent clashes in the Kokang Special Region.

2013 – Riots between two religious communities started at Muzaffarnagar, Uttar Pradesh, India.

Sourced from NZ History Online & Wikipedia


Word of the day

26/08/2014

Paludal of or relating to marshes or fens; marshy; living or occurring in a marshy habitat.


Williams off NZ First list

26/08/2014

New Zealand First MP Andrew Williams has been left off his party’s list and another MP, Asenati Lole- Taylor, at 16 is unlikely to return to parliament:

1 Rt Hon Winston Peters
2 Tracey Martin
3 Richard Prosser
4 Fletcher Tabuteau
5 Barbara Stewart
6 Clayton Mitchell
7 Denis O’Rourke
8 Pita Paraone
9 Ron Mark
10 Darroch Ball
11 Mahesh Bindra
12 Ria Bond
13 Mataroa Paroro
14 Romuald Rudzki
15 Jon Reeves
16 Asenati Lole- Taylor
17 Brent Catchpole
18 George Abraham
19 Ray Dolman
20 Hugh Barr
21 Anne Degia Pala
22 Steve Campbell
23 Edwin Perry
24 Bill Gudgeon
25 Brent Pierson

Williams’ selection three years ago was criticised but he’s largely stayed out of trouble since he’s been in parliament.

Lole- Taylor has been in the news for some very silly statements. Some are so silly people have trouble differentiating between the fake Twitter account in her name and her real one.


Maori Party list

26/08/2014

 

The Maori Party has released its list for the 2014 election:
1. Te Ururoa Flavell (Waiariki)
2. Marama Fox (Ikaroa Rawhiti)
3. Chris McKenzie – Te Tai Hauauru
4. Te Hira Paenga (Te Tai Tokerau)
5. Ngaire Button (Te Tai Tonga)
6. Nancy Tuaine (Whanganui)
7. Tame Iti
8. Eraia Kiel
9. Anaru Kaipo (Whangarei)
10. Raewyn Bhana (Manurewa)
11. Rangimarie Naida Glavish
12. Aroha Reriti-Crofts (Waimakariri)
13. Hinurewa Te Hau (Upper Harbour)
14. Tom Phillips (Hunua)
15. Verna Ohia-Gate (Tauranga)
16. Ann Kendall (Papakura)
17. Hiria Pakinga (Coromandel)
18. Claire Winitana (Taupo)
19. Ra Smith (Wairarapa)
20. Lenis Davidson (Christchurch Central)
21. Tania Mataki (Christchurch East)
22. Sheryl Gardyne (Selwyn)
23. Te Whe Ariki Phillips (Wigram)
24. Benita Wakefield (Ilam)

Tama Iti is a long way from getting in on current polling but is a radical face for the party:

. . . Speaking in the home he built himself in Ruatoki, Iti said he had always supported the Maori Party and had decided to stand to boost the party’s support and because he endorsed the work it had done in government.

“Not very long ago I wouldn’t have thought about it but I see there’s more achievement…with National in terms of the treaty settlements so we have come a long way,” he said.

Having a Maori voice in power had led to gains in areas such as health and social services for Maori and it was important for Maori “to be sitting on the table rather than across the road throwing rocks at each other”. . .

Small parties generally get punished for supporting a government.

Their followers high, and unrealistic, expectations aren’t met. But Iti recognises that the party has made gains through its coalition agreement which would have been impossible in opposition.


Rural round-up

26/08/2014

Blood and guts all poachers left behind   – Sonita Chandar:

A steaming pile of blood and guts was all that was left of a mob of newly bought pigs after poachers visited a Tararua farm.

In an incident that occurred earlier this year, a farmer told of taking his young grandchildren to show them the new pigs but instead they found a distressing sight.

”We released the pigs in a paddock right in the middle of the farm and they didn’t even last a week. . .

Night raiders caught in the act

A Tararua victim of stock rustling and poaching had his security cameras stolen after police showed photos of alleged rustlers around sporting goods shops.

The theft is just one incident of many that have recently occurred in a small community where several farmers have had stock go missing.

Farmers were willing to share their stories but did not wish to have their names published for fear of retaliation.

Frustrated at being the target of stock rustlers and trespassing hunters, a farmer and his son installed surveillance cameras in trees earlier this year. . .

Agricultural exports to Japan – Keith Woodford:

Back in 1988, Japan was our most important market for both total exports and agri-food exports. Now, some 25 years later, the share of total exports going to Japan has declined from more than 18 percent down to less than six percent. In part this is because of the phenomenal rise of China. Also, in that 25 year period our global exports have increased greatly, so a loss in percentage is not necessarily surprising. But our exports to Japan have been declining in absolute as well as percentage terms. So what went wrong?

The simple but somewhat naïve answer is that the Japanese economic boom came to an end. The Japanese economy has indeed struggled during those times, but per capita incomes have remained much higher than almost everywhere else in Asia. The exceptions are the city states of Singapore, Hong Kong and Macau. The Japanese GDP per capita is still more than five times that of the Chinese. . .

Water system a winner on Mt Watkins :

Switching to a gravity-fed water system has paid off for East Otago farmers David and Sarah Smith.

The couple are equity managers on a 1463ha property, Mt Watkins, near Waikouaiti, farming in partnership with Mr Smith’s parents Rex and Glenys.

The family purchased the original 920ha block in 2005 and bought another 510ha, which was previously leased, three years ago. . . .

A little home cookery for orphan lambs – Diane Bishop:

David Hamill has a secret weapon when it comes to mothering lambs onto ewes.

The semi-retired Southland farmer has been using the popular baking ingredient vanilla essence as a mothering on tool for almost 50 years.

Hamill rubs the essence on both the orphan lamb and the ewe and it’s doesn’t take long for the ewe to bond with the lamb and accept it as her own.

”I’ve had huge success with it,” Hamill said. . .

Rabobank Recognises the Challenge of Farm Succession:

As part of Rabobank’s focus on assisting New Zealand farmers with the challenges of succession planning, the agricultural specialist bank has announced it has strengthened its succession team with the appointment of succession planning manager Chris Haworth.

An experienced agricultural banker who has been involved in family farm succession planning, Chris will be working with rural farming families to achieve their personal, family and business goals for each generation. . .


Do you know your capitals?

26/08/2014

How’s your knowledge of capital cities?

I got 15/15 with two slightly informed guesses.

You got 15 questions correct: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15
YOU GOT

World Scholar!

Congratulations! You pass the test! You did better than 60% of the people, you should be proud!

 


National working for and in the south #26

26/08/2014

Fantastic Fact # 26:


Synthetic carpet not natural choice

26/08/2014

This isn’t good news for wool growers:

Cavalier Corporation’s move into selling synthetic carpets into the New Zealand market is producing better returns than expected, as the group waits for better Australian trading and a fall in the kiwi dollar.

But this is better:

NZ wool carpet sales at the mid to upper ends of the market are also strong, with market share gains being achieved. . .

Synthetic isn’t the natural choice for carpets and it’s not good for the wool industry.

But wool has a good story in a world looking for greener products.

Wool is a natural, renewable fibre grown in New Zealand on free range animals.

If it can’t compete with synthetics at the bottom end of the market, it must have an advantage at the middle and top where people might be prepared to put their money where their desire for a cleaner, greener world is.


Home ownership makes difference

26/08/2014

A young English woman told me that Margaret Thatcher’s policy which enabled people to buy the houses they’d been renting stopped her father striking.

When they lived in a rental house strikes had been regular ocurrances.

Once they bought their home, her mother wouldn’t let her father strike because they’d have got behind on mortgage payments.

Maggie's right. See National's plan here >> http://nzyn.at/firsthomes

Home ownership brings other benefits:

“. . .   National values home ownership.  That’s because it provides stability for families, strength for communities and security in retirement. . . .”

 

Yesterday John Key announced our election policy to double support for first home buyers, and let us access more of our own KiwiSaver accounts for a deposit. http://nzyn.at/firsthomes

 


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