It’s still the trend that matters

Labour has lost four points in the latest Herald DigiPoll, slumping to 26.5%,  its worst level of support in 15 years.

 . . . On this poll of decided voters National would be able to govern alone comfortably and gain another 10 MPs.

National has jumped 4.5 points to 54.9 per cent. A Stuff/Ipsos poll earlier this week also put support for National at 54.8 per cent.

Prime Minister John Key is more popular than he has ever been, scoring preferred prime minister on 73.3 per cent, compared with Cunliffe on 10.5 per cent and New Zealand First’s Winston Peters on 5.5 per cent.

The second-most-preferred PM out of Labour MPs is David Shearer, with 2.2 per cent, followed by Jacinda Ardern on 1.4 per cent. . .

Labour’s total support is down from 30.5 per cent in June, but it is disproportionately down among male voters, with only 23.9 per cent of men backing Labour, compared with 29.1 per cent of women.

Political commentator Chris Trotter said the poll indicated Labour was “more or less bereft of hope”.

“Labour is in an extremely parlous position, and the situation is deteriorating.” 

And the news gets worse for the left:

Contrary to other polls, the DigiPoll had the Green Party losing popularity, which was also bad news for Labour and the left’s prospects. . .

A single poll could be a rogue one but a trend has to be taken more seriously and the left will even though this support reflects the views of those who have decided:

. . . Undecided voters were 11.5 per cent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 per cent. . . .

It’s still the trend that counts and the trend is very good for National but it’s still a couple of months to the election and the result of that, trend not withstanding, is still not certain.

The left might be panicking but there is absolutely no room for complacency on the centre-right.

However, there is

3 Responses to It’s still the trend that matters

  1. Gravedodger says:

    On behalf of the absent greens at present being boiled for Sunday dinner, firstly their abject apologies, second the only poll that matters is on Saturday September 20th, thirdly we have the flu, forthly and lastly have you no f&*king compassion, we could be dieing, as if you would care a jot.

    Bugger bugger bugger whaddya mean the mike was still on?


  2. jabba says:

    great to see the Greens drop but 3 seats for Megalackofmana .. REALLY?


  3. Gravedodger says:

    Hey Jabba Schadenfreude is on special today and Guyton was so solicitous when you seemed busy elsewhere the other day.
    Would you like some reciprocal with that Sir it is included but optional.

    BTW Sir We cannot serve the Megalackofmana, German sausages are in short supply and we only use fresh and tender.
    Could I recommend the Fibbicumngetim, it best served cold with a Central Otago Pinot.


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