The question polling companies ask is if an election was held tomorrow which party would you vote for?
The answer to that is very encouraging for National and very depressing for Labour and the parties it would need to cobble together a government.
But the election isn’t being held tomorrow and while the odds favour National that could actually work against it.
No party has won 50% support since we’ve had MMP and the high support could lead to complacency.
National supporters might think they don’t need to vote or they can afford to play with their party vote.
That certainly isn’t the case.
Complacency or over-confidence from centre right voters could let Labour and the Green, NZ First and Internet Mana parties cobble together a coalition of the unwilling and ill-disciplined.