One of Labour’s strategies for winning this year’s election is to motivate the million or so people who didn’t vote.
That’s obviously based on the assumption that most of those non-voters would have voted for them, or at least one of their potential coalition partners.
A Kiwiblog reader has done some analysis which suggests many of the non-voters were National voters and concludes:
. . . Contrary to “received wisdom” it was National that suffered from the reduced turnout in 2011. Additionally, the NZ First vote was boosted primarily by defections from National. Uncontroversially, it is confirmed that Conservative votes came overwhelmingly at National’s expense.
My theory that the above phenomena were a result of complacency in the face of the widespread expectation of National waltzing home with a win remains only a theory. But it is one that fits the facts quite well.
However, it seems to me that if true, the greatest danger for National in 2014 is, again, complacency and a failure of potential supporters to vote for the party (whether by staying home or by risking a vote for other parties that may not meet the threshold criteria or may not support National after the election).
There is absolutely no complacency in National.
As Deputy leader and Finance Minister Bill English warned on Sunday, there is a very real risk that Labour and whoever it needs to get at least 51% of the vote, could win.
Last election’s 47% support was a very good result, but it won’t be enough to guarantee a National-led government this time.
National has a good record, but voters wont vote on what’s been done, they’ll vote on what they can believe will happen in the next term.
The Opposition hasn’t come up with anything workable that will make a positive difference to most people yet.
But there’s still a danger they could cobble together a coalition unless National convinces even more people to support them than voted for them three years ago.