Last night’s One News Colmar Brunton Poll appeared to show National gaining at the Green Party’s expense.
The blue vote went up 6 points and the Green one fell 5 while Labour stayed the same.
But rather than swapping from green to blue it’s more likely that green went red and pink went blue.
Green voters liked Labour’s lurch to the left so moved to the red party but a similar number of voters towards the centre didn’t like the lurch left and moved centre right over to National.
That is the conundrum Labour faces – policies which bolster its support from the left lose it support from the centre.
The poll follows the trend showing steady support for National and little or no progress for the left. The PM is still popular and Labour leader David Cunliffe is not.
There is however, no room for complacency:
Meanwhile National’s election year pitch of boosting teacher performance is proving popular.
But the Prime Minister says his party won’t rest on its laurels, or on the tailwind of a booming economy.
“It’s a good poll but we need to be cautious,” John Key says. “There will be a lot of polls before the election they will bounce around a lot.” . .
The six-point surge in the ONE News Colmar Brunton poll to 51% may well reflect a strong economy and the feel good factor of summer.
However, it also must be acknowledged that Prime Minister John Key has made a strong start to the year.
His popular education policy sending a clear signal to voters that National is capable of fresh ideas and is not a tired government.
Labour leader David Cunliffe meanwhile had his policy launch of a baby bonus derailed by a gaffe and has seemed to struggle for confidence and exposure since. . .
As for the Greens’ big fall in the poll, that is harder to explain. It may be that Russel Norman’s liaisons with Kim Dot Com have hurt the party, or it could also be a reflection of National’s efforts to discredit the party as extremist.
It could also be that more exposure for the Greens is showing up flaws in its policies and that its supporters don’t accept the compromises that would be necessary if it was in government.