Trend matters

Individual poll results show variations in rises and falls but the trend is consistent.

The latest Fairfax Media Ipsos poll has

National: 49.4% (Oct 2013 Fairfax-Ipsos poll: 50.2%)
Labour: 31.8% (33.6%)
Greens: 10.00% (10.7%)
NZ First: 3.6% (2.3%)

Other parties were in margin-of-error territories, led by Colin Craig’s Conservatives, which was up 1.3% to 2%. Kim Dotcom’s putative Internet Party drew no support.

National is still unusually popular for a second term government and Labour isn’t any better off with a new leader and the baby bribe.

It’s still several months until the election but the trend is encouraging for the centre right and must be causing considerable angst among the left.

14 Responses to Trend matters

  1. Neil says:

    Just shows how popular Lab/Greens are. Greens have a long way to fall as I believe they will implode.

  2. robertguyton says:

    Implode! What a laff! The Greens are going from strength to strength and their increased popularity will ensure the next Government is one that genuinely works to protect the environment, ’cause they’ll be holding those portfolios that determine the direction the country takes of issues like water quality and biodiversity.
    I can hardly wait.

  3. TraceyS says:

    The poll says you will have to wait a bit longer.

  4. Andrei says:

    The Greens are going from strength to strength and their increased popularity will ensure the next Government is one that genuinely works to protect the environment

    Eh?

    Government will loan households up to $15,000 at low interest rates to help them install solar power if the Greens are elected.

    Do you have any concept of the environmental damage caused in mining for the minerals to make those solar panels?

    Or for the materials that go into the batteries required to store the power which is only generated when the sun does shine which is almost exactly matches the times when the power of the household is at a minimum.

    Or of disposing of the batteries when they reach the end of their useful life and have to be replaced?

    This is anything but “clean and green”, it is just plain uneconomic and dumb

  5. Andrei says:

    Sorry forget the link to the second quote

    Greens launch new solar power initiative

  6. TraceyS says:

    In the launch today Russel Norman said these exact words:

    “New Zealand can show the world how to produce 100% pure electricity”.

    So I am taking it that the jobs to produce the raw materials and put them together, recycle the waste, and so on, will be done in another country.

    It is very misleading to suggest that any industry is 100% pure.

    He also described New Zealand as having had a lucky start in renewable energy production. What did luck have to do with it? Those dams didn’t just fall from the skies fortuitously lodging themselves in just the right places to produce large lakes for power generation. They were built with the precious resources of fossil fuel and manpower.

    If New Zealand manages to achieve 100% renewable power by 2030 the new infrastructure will also be built on the back of these resources. There is no other way.

  7. willdwan says:

    And, as we all know, if the Greens and the RMA had existed back then, those dams would never have been built.

    I’m starting to feel more optimistic about November, I could really use another three years.

  8. robertguyton says:

    Ah, the Greens! How fascinated you are by them. You remind me of possums; noses twitching, pupils shrinking as the headlights get closer and closer, brighter and brighter.
    Yes, you are right to be panicked, the Dread Green Beast is upon you and we are Worse than you Ever Dreamed – SOLAR POWER! Please Mammon, NO, not SOLAR POWER!!! Damn those reckless Greens. No, we’ll NOT tolerate SOLAR POWER, not while the Key/Slater Government holds power, no siree!
    Someone get on the phone to Cam! He’ll have some dirt on the Greens. THEY MUST BE STOPPED!!!

  9. Andrei says:

    Robert if Solar panels on private houses were a good idea then there would no need for Government subsidies to convince people to install them.

    We converted our water heating to gas last year and it saves us money, real dollars and the Government didn’t need tell us to do it.

    Anyway the manufacturers of Solar panels are going bankrupt because the only way they can survive is through Government subsidies and that is because their product does not make economic sense – if it did then people would adopt this approach to lighting, heating etc their home without being bribed too by the Government.

    This is not rocket science and the fact it is beyond the grasp of the Green party reveals beyond any shadow of a doubt that they are not fit to govern.

  10. Gravedodger says:

    Now Robert, would you please give a bit of commentary on the production of Photovoltaic cells and the dirty big batteries with very limited lifespan needed to make the generated energy useable with their storage.
    You spout more crap than a $2 radio.
    Then perhaps a further commentary on how Germany is coping with the decommissioning of its nuclear generation by building coal powered plants and bird mincers aka windmills.

    Yes NZ was lucky in having the forward thinking souls who developed Hydro generation as our base supply but sadly every major effort since the Upper Clutha development has foundered on the wishes of nimbys and environmental luddites who see every river with hydro generation potential as sacred.

    The Mohaka, The Hurunui, The Lower Waitaki, The Wairau, The Monganui?
    What chance of the Upper Waitaki that has created so much Irrigation, water sports and recreation, oh and all that lovely cheap renewable energy the GP love to promote until someone actually proposes a new scheme.

    You are on very thin ice promoting Solar and wind in NZ when we are possibly the only nation on the planet that has wind generation unsubsidised by taxpayers.

  11. TraceyS says:

    “…New Zealand is lagging behind the rest of the world with the National Government failing to meet its target of 90% renewable electricity generation by 2025.” (Russel Norman)

    Gosh those last 11 years flew by!

  12. robertguyton says:

    “You are on very thin ice promoting solar and wind in NZ…”

    Good grief.

    The assorted Blue Luddites in the homepaddock rail against the rise of new technologies.
    How ironic.
    Get out your hammers, lads! These new-fangled Green ideas must be crushed before they spread into the homes of God-Fearin’ folks like ourselves!!!!

  13. Boris says:

    PV Solar works if it’s subsidized, which means it doesn’t really work. In Britain there are “rent-your-roof” schemes where power companies “pay” homeowners for electricity generated by PV panels installed on house roofs. The power company pays for installation, connection, and maintenance, and the home owner gets cheaper power because some of their usage is solar generated. But the feed-in and export tariffs which fund the scheme are Government subsidized.

    Wind works if it’s on a small scale. There are companies which manufacture domestic turbines. Installed on a house or building they generate 1- 1.5 kW. En masse they contribute to a nation’s grid because there’s always somewhere where the wind is blowing. Additional structures to get the turbine up in the air are not needed, because you’re using the existing house or building to do that. Grid upgrades are not needed because the power is being used at or near to where it is produced. New access roads which wind farms need are not needed because houses and buildings are already serviced by roads.

    Large wind farms comprised of a few hundred massive turbines out in the middle of nowhere are a plain dumb idea. No wind in the location of the wind farm = no generation and no contribution to base load, so for every kW of wind generation installed there has to be a kW of reliable generation (read: thermal), as well, which means the cost of a wind kW is automatically double that of a thermal kW.

    Low-frequency noise pollution from turbines ruins health and lives, and the blades decimate bird life. In the winter the blades take power for de-icing, which means that on cold days with little wind, wind turbines can actually be net consumers of power from the grid.

    On top of that, as with any remote power station, transmission losses mean that only a portion of the electricity generated is able to be utilized. Grids need upgrading to carry the additional power and wind farm sites need new roads built to transport the towers. Big wind equals big expensive stupidity.

    Neither wind nor solar, in any form, are remotely green. Plastic, carbon fibre, steel, alternators, batteries, inverters, refined silicon or selenium cells, wires and cables, pylons, etc etc etc all require a massive industrial and mining infrastructure to create, and a massive transport infrastructure to relocate. Both these infrastructures are made from steel and powered by diesel. Batteries need lots of lead and lots of sulphuric acid. Green electricity is an impossible myth believed only by the very stupid.

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