iPredict’s first update for the year is predicting a very narrow win for the incumbent government.
• Election expected in Q4 2014, most probably in November
• Growing economy expected, but with rising interest rates
• Only National, Labour and Greens to reach 5% threshold
• Maori, Conservative, Mana and UnitedFuture parties to win electorate seats but Act to miss out
• Very slight advantage to John Key as head of a National/Conservative/UnitedFuture government
This is the first iPredict Update for the 2014 New Zealand General Election with forecasts based on trading by the more than 7000 registered iPredict traders. As in 2011, the newsletter will be based on a market snapshot taken at a random time, initially weekly and then daily during the election campaign.
The first snapshot, which was taken at 9.32 am today, suggests a very slight advantage to incumbent prime minister John Key, most probably leading a National/Conservative/UnitedFuture government, with or without the Maori Party. . .
No other parties are expected to reach the 5% threshold under the MMP electoral system. The Conservative and NZ First parties are both expected to win 4.6% of the party vote, the Maori Party 1.5%, Act 1.3%, Mana 0.7%, UnitedFuture 0.6% and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.3%.
Stocks for the proposed Civilian and Kim Dotcom parties will be launched in the near future.
Based on the party vote forecasts and the electorate results above, Parliament would be as follows: National 54 MPs, Labour 44 MPs, Greens 12 MPs, the Conservative Party 6 MPs, the Maori Party 2 MPs, UnitedFuture 1 MPs and Mana 1 MP, for a total of 120 MPs. A government would be required to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply.
Under this scenario, National, the Conservative Party and UnitedFuture could form a government with 61 MPs. Were the Maori Party involved, such a government would be supported by 63 MPs.
Were the Conservative Party not to win an electorate seat, a Labour/Green/Maori Party/Mana government could be formed with 62 MPs.
Overall, the market indicates a very narrow advantage to National, with a 53.3% probability of a National prime minister after the next election and a 45.1% probability of a Labour prime minister. . .
I’d call that too close to call which is what most polls have been saying.