iPredict – narrow Nat win

iPredict’s first update for the year is predicting a very narrow win for the incumbent government.

Key Points:

•       Election expected in Q4 2014, most probably in November
•       Growing economy expected, but with rising interest rates
•       Only National, Labour and Greens to reach 5% threshold
•       Maori, Conservative, Mana and UnitedFuture parties to win electorate seats but Act to miss out
•       Very slight advantage to John Key as head of a National/Conservative/UnitedFuture government

Commentary:

This is the first iPredict Update for the 2014 New Zealand General Election with forecasts based on trading by the more than 7000 registered iPredict traders.  As in 2011, the newsletter will be based on a market snapshot taken at a random time, initially weekly and then daily during the election campaign.

The first snapshot, which was taken at 9.32 am today, suggests a very slight advantage to incumbent prime minister John Key, most probably leading a National/Conservative/UnitedFuture government, with or without the Maori Party. . .

Of the major parties, National is expected to win 43.0% of the party vote, the Labour Party 34.5% and the Green Party 9.5%.  

No other parties are expected to reach the 5% threshold under the MMP electoral system.  The Conservative and NZ First parties are both expected to win 4.6% of the party vote, the Maori Party 1.5%, Act 1.3%, Mana 0.7%, UnitedFuture 0.6% and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.3%.  

Stocks for the proposed Civilian and Kim Dotcom parties will be launched in the near future.

Based on the party vote forecasts and the electorate results above, Parliament would be as follows: National 54 MPs, Labour 44 MPs, Greens 12 MPs, the Conservative Party 6 MPs, the Maori Party 2 MPs, UnitedFuture 1 MPs and Mana 1 MP, for a total of 120 MPs.  A government would be required to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply.

Under this scenario, National, the Conservative Party and UnitedFuture could form a government with 61 MPs.  Were the Maori Party involved, such a government would be supported by 63 MPs.

Were the Conservative Party not to win an electorate seat, a Labour/Green/Maori Party/Mana government could be formed with 62 MPs.

Overall, the market indicates a very narrow advantage to National, with a 53.3% probability of a National prime minister after the next election and a 45.1% probability of a Labour prime minister. . .

I’d call that too close to call which is what most polls have been saying.

 

3 Responses to iPredict – narrow Nat win

  1. Andrei says:

    Labour, National whatever – I’m not going to engage in that exercise in futility called “voting” this year.

    After all it is certain that we will end up with a parliament full of buffoons of whom approximately half will have been rejected by their electorates but got their by virtue of being in good with their parties list committee.

    And these people will continue their depredations on common sense, logic and reason as they come up with more ways to prey upon the humble, screw them over and smear their feces over anything that is good wholesome and decent

  2. Gravedodger says:

    So that will be a force for good Andrei, abdication of civic duty is the way to go Cunman Norcliffe is counting on it along with their wet dream that the million who just cant be arsed will all be supporters of the far left, Mike Williams said so this morning, what could possibly go wrong?

  3. willdwan says:

    Yeah, thanks for nothing Andrei. This country’s producers deserve better than being sacrificed to the depredations of socialism. Most of us hold our noses when we vote, if you can’t find someone to vote for, then why not just vote to do maximum damage to the parties you despise most? That’s how I do it.

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