Predictions positive for National & NZ

Fairfax’s press gallery’s  predictions for 2014 include a positive one for National, and because of that New Zealand:

20. National will form a Government with at least two other parties.

Most governments get a second term, winning a third one is much harder but the signs are positive.

Polls give National more or less the same support it had at the 2011 election and Labour hasn’t been able to gain momentum in spite of a change of leader.

National’s challenge is to at least maintain the level of support it’s got and to have potential coalition partners with enough MPs to help it gain a majority.

That won’t be easy.

Scoring last year’s predictions out of 10, the Fairfax gallery awarded itself 133/200.

Labour’s challenge is to increase its support without butchering its major coalition partner, the Green Party.

That will be even harder because the policies it’s espousing so far are taking it to well to the left which is Green territory.

That might be shoring up its bedrock support but it doesn’t appear to be doing anything to attract swinging voters in the centre.

They might stomach a moderate move to the left but are very unlikely to be enamoured of the tax more, spend more lurch to the radical left.



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