Labour’s seat to lose

Labour leader David Cunliffe reckons the Christchurch East seat is National’s to lose.

So despite Dalziel’s solid 5334 majority in 2011, Cunliffe has been talking up National’s equally emphatic victory in the party vote in 2011, by 13,252 (46 per cent) to 9100 for Labour (31.65 per cent).

Labour’s “key message” is that the seat is National’s to lose.

For Cunliffe “any old win would do”, he said yesterday.

“I would say 50 per cent would be great.”

He is adamant the party vote is the best measure of “underlying party allegiance” available.

But this isn’t a general election where people get two votes. It’s a by-election for a seat Labour has held for decades.

No-one would expect a new candidate to get the support Dalziel built up over several terms as the local MP,even though, contrary to her assertion she would be an independent mayor, she is helping Poto Williams.

But it would be a serious blow to Labour, its candidate and its leader if National’s Matthew Doocey won the seat.

People in Christchurch East have had more than enough of living with the aftermath of earthquakes, dealing with insurance companies and all the other challenges which make day to day life more difficult. There’s little more the government can do about most of these than it’s already doing but even so, people at the end of their tethers can use their votes to send a message about their frustration.

This all makes the seat Labour’s to lose and it’s Cunliffe’s to lose too.

He hasn’t made much progress in the polls since becoming leader and anything but an emphatic win for his candidate, chosen over those supported by the locals, will be a big blow for him.

2 Responses to Labour’s seat to lose

  1. Gravedodger says:

    That wonderful tribal Labour assett that the party had to oh so reluctantly release to grab the Christchurch Mayoralty came to Akaroa during the campaign for a meet the Candidates meeting.

    My M8, Eric, mine host at the Grand hote,l introduced me to the person dumped from HC’s Cabinet for lying and to my face, one on one, she asserted she was no longer tribal Labour, my assertion, but was standing as an independent to serve all the people of the city.
    I demurred suggesting she could not expunge over 30 years of absolute commitment to the NZLP, but in response she reasserted her claim.

    Clearly her rather tenuous relationship with what I understand to be basic honesty is as apparent as it has been for ever.
    LD is actively campaigning for Labour in CHCH East in support of Auckland carpet bagger, equally doubtful as a student of veracity, gender balance candidate, one Poto Williams.
    So far with days to go untill the polls close, the “independent Mayor” has had three mail drops of flyers to residents of Chch East in support of her hoped for replacement as MP

    This is apparently not permitted by the code of conduct for elected members of Council and is binding on “her worship”.

    A labour mayor rides roughshod over codes of behavior, who would have thunk that eh.

  2. pdm says:

    If Labour loses this by election it will leave no doubt whatsoever as to how strong the ABC (Anyone But Cunliffe) faction within Labour is and how unelectable Cunliffe is.

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